Can’t Shake The Cool Weather

June 14, 2007

SnapshotAfter a forecast in the lower to mid 70’s today, I was surprised that most of us only made it into the upper 60’s.  And apparently it only goes downhill from there into the weekend.
First, tonight there is a nice little system moving onshore, bringing showers to the Coast and now sprinkles inland.  I see radar returns approaching McMinnville at 10:45pm.  It’s a fast moving system so it will be out of the area by midday tomorrow. 
Then a stronger trough moves in over the weekend.  This seems to be a persistent pattern for the last 2 weeks, so another cloudy and cool weekend with a good chance for showers Sunday.
Long range is a mess.  Maps are all over the place.  GFS had absolutely no ridging in the morning and midday runs (12z/18z), but no is looking a bit more similar to the ECMWF.  I took an average of the two, which gives 850mb. temps of 12 on Tuesday-Wednesday afternoon, and assumed very light onshore flow.  That’s how I ended up with a 7 Day forecast much cooler than yesterday’s, but not nearly as cool as the 12z/18z GFS.  Do you like that forecast reasoning?  If not you get to make your own 7 Day Forecast.  Now take a look at the 00z Canadian.  It would give us 60’s and showers much of next week!  As I mentioned, what a mess!  I do plan to put the little plastic tunnels back up over my "warm-season" vegetables tomorrow.  Just too much chilly weather ahead on the maps…Mark