Nice Day

SnapshotHope you all enjoyed the cloudy, cool, and wet weather over the weekend.  Today was nice, but what a chilly start.  My cucumbers and tomatoes are NOT liking these temps.  So it definitely IS payback time for all that May sun and warm temperatures.  Another weak trough is moving by to the north tonight and tomorrow, pushing cloud cover and even a few light showers into Northwest Oregon.  The chance for rain south of Salem or east of the Cascade crest is just about zero.  Weak ridging again moves overhead Thursday and early Friday.  That means more sun and warmer temps at least for Thursday.  Then a strong trough moves down over the Northwest…guess what…over the weekend!  So plan on another cool weekend again.
Long range models are each a bit different for next week.  ECMWF continues to be quite strong with ridging and offshore flow next week, easily pushing our temps to 90 or above.  GFS has been waffling around a bit though.  So I threw in temps near 90 by Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe…Mark

16 Responses to Nice Day

  1. garron near washington square says:

    1sr off…Derek, That’s fascinating!!!! The yr. 1950 here was very significant here as far as weather anomalies. The heavy snowfall in January fascinates me, along with the cold spell that accompanied it, my dad remembers it well. Then the month of June saw 13+ inches of rain here??? What was the cause I wonder of these anomlies?
    Then onto Jesse…Iam getting used to the Summer solstice blues. I’d put my money on cool and cloudy (here in the Willamette Valley)between June 5th to July 5th if I were in Vegas. And that brings me to my final point. I love being able to play Texas Hold em’ on-line, I kinda wish I could go broke betting on weather events on-line instead… We should call Vegas and tell them there’s another popular avenue they’ve yet to expose for betting online///lol

  2. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Oh sorry, Rob! Yeah, it’s definitely a wacky pattern to say the least. Looking at Marks 7-day outlook, your highs this weekend are what my lows are going to be. Had a few CB’s popup this afternoon (due to the low level lapse rates of 9 to 9.5 C/Km) but that was about it.

  3. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Looks like Mark took the mention of anything close to 90 out of the 7-day, now has us only peaking at 80 for one day, more of a cool-down from yesterday’s 7-day than I expected to see. Also has us in the 60’s the next four days, another change. We have been in the 60’s seven days so far this month. If today doesn’t hit 70, which it may not (PDX is 68 right now) then we may have another four days in the 60s to follow. That will bring us up to June 18th and 12 out of those 18 days in the 60s. I wonder what our record is for days in the 60s in June and how close we may get to it if this block in the high lattitudes and cool pattern continues…

  4. AtmosphericWrath -Far S.E. Portland- says:

    ?…. Huh… Who’s snoring it woke me up… Oh Sean! Yeah that figures. In my opinion the anomalies over the Arctic Ocean, Bering Sea, and the NW territories are what’s playing havoc with any accuracy regarding long range forecasting. The unusual pattern seems to be pushing the GOA troughs quite a bit further S allowing them to impact the PNW more than they might normally would do so for the middle of June. If this pattern persists and the ridge does not end up materializing we should end up with one trough after another clear into early July, then we can definitely blame it on the unusual weather pattern shifts over the before mentioned areas.
    By the way it’s really nice out there today, perfect IMO.
    Any thoughts?
    Rob

  5. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Well, the omega block over the midwest here has pretty much stopped all weather it seems the time being. Dry, dry, dry and no real relief insight out here, though about 250 miles to the west (MO and KS) they are just getting deluged with rain. Looking at temps in the low to mid 90s now through Tuesday (looking at the NWS forecast).
    Talk about a snorefest in regards to weather..

  6. Derek-West Gresham says:

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KTTD
    yep no ridge…until hours 360-384. GFS gives us +30 850mb temps and a 593dm ridge. LOL now thats funny.

  7. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Its definitely something to do with the blocking over the NW territories I think Jesse. If you look at the 500 and 300mb levels on the models you can see it up there. There is some weird stuff going on..

  8. Jesse-Orchards says:

    Wow, pretty incredible how the ECMWF and the 06z and 12Z GFS totally killed the potential heat ridge early next week, one of the fastest turnarounds I’ve seen the models make for awhile. Now GFS shows the trough this weekend slowly scrape over us followed by a couple days of zonal flow, with a pretty strong trough waiting on it’s heels just in time for the solstice. ECMWF on the other hand now shows a weak trough over us Tuesday as compared to the strong ridge it was showing yesterday. I’m not going to bite off the idea of no ridge next week until a few more runs, but if the 18Z and 00Z have the same idea we may have to wave goodbye to our chances for any 90+ temps this June, a month that will most likely go down as cool and wet when all is said and done if this pattern holds.

  9. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Here is another interesting stat I came across. In June of 1950 PDX had 13.5 inches of rain!!! How did that happen????

  10. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Here is a video of the snow/ice storm that hit west of the cascades this last winter. Fun seeing this stuff on national video sites.
    http://www.break.com/index/icy_roads_in_portland.html

  11. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Just another sunny day and temps near 90. Haven’t seen a cloud in the sky now for over 5 days. Though that may change and the wind starts to come our of the S to SE and increase the humidity.
    We are now over 4″ of rain behind now for the calendar year, and almost below normal for the water year. It’s just gone from tons of rainfall to nothing in a matter of a few weeks.
    Will be a great weekend for BBQ and some other outdoor activities..

  12. garron near washington square says:

    Derek,
    That is interesting! I have noticed that while our springs have been pretty gloomy, more summers than not are spectacular. We have had more dry stetches during January than I remember as a kid too. It will be interesting to see what mother nature springs our way in the future…

  13. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Models are definitely uncertain as for that ridge. 18z didnt even show it so no danger yet. But we are bound to see some ridging sooner or later so take it for what you will. 😛
    I have been doing some research and its interesting. Are you guys aware of how dry our summers are becoming? Our 2000-present average for June-September is just 71% of normal. And 1990-present is 80% of normal. This means that our long term average precip is falling. And unless the PDO shift can help us, which is going to happen soon or is already in the process of, our summers could keep becoming drier. Well, at least thats the trend for now.

  14. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Thanks for the update Mark!!

  15. winterhawk says:

    Second!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  16. Stephen says:

    Today definitely was a perfect day…comfortable all around. But I see 90-degree temps are possibly on the horizon…bleh!!

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