Feels/Looks Like Summer

June 1, 2007

SnapshotHard to believe it’s only the first day of June…we’ve had four days well into the 80’s (and one 90).  A few thunderstorms in Central Oregon yesterday, and then a tremendous increase in activity 24 hours later (this afternoon).  At one point around 4pm I noticed a cell between Sisters and McKenzie Pass produced about 40 cloud to ground strikes in just one 15 minute period.  Not good considering how dry the region is.  And hopefully it’s not a sign of the summer to come.
Looking ahead to the weekend…as expected the trough offshore will be a bit slow to move inland, turning our upper-level flow more southerly the next two days.  Models continue to keep just about all convection over and east of the Cascades.  Although our RPM model in the latest 00z run continues to show something slipping from the Central Cascades of Oregon out and over the metro area late tomorrow evening as we head towards midnight.  It is barely noticeable on the maps, but once again it has been a persistent feature in that model the last couple of days.  It also shows a pop-up thunderstorm or two early Sunday afternoon too.  So with increasing moisture in the atmosphere and warm temps, keep an eye to the sky.  The one thing missing is some sort of obvious shortwave or trigger to really give us a nice little period of thunderstorms.
Monday is the transition day to much cooler weather with much cooler 850 mb. temps and a major marine push at the same time.  The rain may not be too heavy, but it’ll be quite a change.
Next week will be off/on cloudy and cool.  GFS has been indicating we may go back into warm/dry weather by the end of the week.  ECMWF doesn’t think so…we’ll see…Enjoy the weekend, Mark