Hot Day Ahead

SnapshotA nice little warmup today.  Some spots in the metro area jumped more than 40 degrees from sunrise until this afternoon.  The east wind always does it in the warm season, especially after a cool period (such as this weekend).  Notice how the east wind was strong enough to "cap off" temperatures just a bit.  I expected that, so I didn’t go for 90 today…tomorrow will be a different story. 
At 11pm we have a thermal trough just inland from the coastline.  It is created when easterly wind higher up in the atmosphere (4,000′ or higher) blows over the Cascades and/or Coast Range.  That lowers pressure in the lee (west side) of the mountains, creating an area of low pressure we call a thermal trough or "heat low".  It moves into the Willamette Valley throughout the entire day tomorrow.  So the sequence of weather events is for easterly flow to continue through the early morning hours, then we go calm in the valleys through tomorrow evening.  Then after 5pm or so cooler marine air pushes into the interior.  This is a perfect setup for record heat tomorrow.  A very similar event occurred two weeks ago on May 14th-15th.  Temperatures ended up much warmer than "expected".  The June version of my little "Mark Nelsen magic chart" still says 91-93 tomorrow, so no reason to stray from the 92 degree forecast.  That will be a record for the date.  All models show a shallow marine push tomorrow night, continuing into Friday.  Saturday should be just a bit warmer as a strong trough offshore develops brief ridging again over eastern Oregon/Washington.  So you can count on a summery Saturday.  Sunday is up in the air since some models bring that trough inland by Sunday afternoon…others don’t.  I assume slower is the way to go for now.  A sharp cooling on the way for Monday either way though…Mark

Just for fun, here is a little bit of "inside" gossip about TV stations and the competitive pressures of forecasting nowdays in Long Range Forecasts.


144 Responses to Hot Day Ahead

  1. Steve says:

    Gregg, sure stations are bought and sold often but just not in the manner that KOIN (and the other stations SJL bought) endured. And Jesse, KOIN’s news operation won’t be going away…it’ll just under new management once they find a buyer (which probably will be difficult considering their current state).
    LOL, sorry for the rant. It just hits close to home.

  2. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Down to 69.8 here now, a good 7 degrees cooler then last night at this time. Stations are always sold, and restructured.

  3. Jesse-Orchards says:

    KOIN is for sale? Does that mean KOIN 6 news will go away or just be under different ownership?

  4. Steve says:

    Mark, yeah that was to be expected. That was Montecito’s plan all along…in fact, they’re planning on selling all the stations they purchased a year ago. Rip it to shreds/strip it of all its manpower and resources to make a buck for their greedy rear ends. It’s too bad quality has to suffer. Okay I’m stepping off my soap box.
    But yeah, it was hot out there today! Had a high of 90 in NoPo…down to a balmy 68 now.

  5. cherie says:

    Glad it is not YOUR station Mark!!!

  6. Mark Nelsen says:

    Unrelated to weather (kind of), but KOIN is up for sale again. Those poor people over there…

  7. Jesse-Orchards says:

    It is a cool 67 here with a gusty at times NW wind, I’m surprised it hasn’t made it to you guys East of Portland yet. I’m not much further west than Troutdale, yet my NW winds started picking up and dropping my temp around 7pm.

  8. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Down to 76.8 here now with WNW winds at 7.

  9. Derek-West Gresham says:

    I win, I went for 90 last night. haha yeah! Still very warm here with no marine air intruding yet.

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