Unexpected Rain

SnapshotI think I’ve said this several times in the last couple of months…I detest spring forecasting here in the Northwest.  Temperature was just right today, but a weak system moving down the coastline spread light rain inland this evening.  As you can see to the right, amounts were not very impressive.  But Shauna’s new deck treatment was messed up and probably more than a few mowing plans were changed too.  The showers are gone now and that system should be out our area well before daybreak.  A warm night and then clouds breaking up to partly sunny should push temperatures into the mid-upper 70’s tomorrow.  No changes for Friday, but then an approaching trough will give us a strong marine push Saturday.  That plus a cooler airmass overhead Sunday gives us a  chilly, but dry day Sunday.  I should point out (as I did at 10pm), that our RPM model shows some weak convection the next 2 afternoons over the Cascades and Coast Range.  I’m assuming this is overdone…but we saw what happened today!
Long range is a tough forecast as well.  If I believe the 00z Canadian, GFS, and 12z ECMWF (all the latest runs), I should go 90-95 next Wednesday and Thursday.  A strong thermal trough, east wind, and 850mb. temps around +20.  This would be our first hot spell of the season.  However, models have been consistently too strong on ridging for the last week or so.  I’ll leave big changes to tomorrow’s forecast…Mark
Long range forecasting continues to be messy too.

12 Responses to Unexpected Rain

  1. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Was a great day here today. Winds for nice and low with a high temp of 82, a little warmer than i thought i would get!

  2. Derek-West Gresham says:

    +20 to +22 should result in low ninties as Mark said. He went with 90 tonight. If models hold dont be surprised to see that get closer to 95.

  3. AKB-tigard says:

    wow the 18z is back with very hot weather and the cold front looks a lot colder getting all the way down to -3 850 mb. and for next week it gets high as 21 degrees at 850 mb level with a steady east flow. wow that would get very warm for nearly a 5 days. possibly our first minor heat wave of 80’s to low 90’s?

  4. garron near washigton square says:

    Jesse,
    You are most likely right! I was amazed how close MT. Raineer looks yesterday, I’ll just bet you are very right. With the humidity and slight cloud cover I was dealing with, I was assuming it was like the moon riding on the horizon effect, making objects appear much larger than normal. If anyone is attempting this climb this weekend, I would reccomend bringing the OFF spray, as it was very handy this go round with the mosquitos at the tip of Larch Mtn. Everyone Have a Great Weekend!!!!!

  5. Ryan (Da Couve) says:

    I hope we don’t crack 90! The 80’s are that borderline “too hot” for me. Personally the mid to upper 70’s are just perfect temperature wise.

  6. Jesse says:

    Garron you forgot Mt. Adams, it is one of the most overlooked or mis-identified mountains in the Northwest, even though it is taller than Mt. Hood and actually the 2nd highest peak in Washington State at over 12,000 ft. Actually the peak you thought was partially obscured Mt. Rainier was most likely Mt. Adams. Mt. Adams shouldn’t be overlooked, it is one of the prettiest Cascade Volcanoes to hike around, but being surrounded by St. Helens, Hood and Rainier it is often skipped over. Glad you enjoyed the hike, it is a great one, those other falls above Multnomah are great!

  7. Jesse says:

    Oh man, now we’re talking heat again. I hope this doesn’t come to fruition. Derek your 100 sounds miserable lol. I would be perfectly content if we didn’t even get above 90 this summer, with a lot of marine layer days. Here’s to hoping next week stays below 80!

  8. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    Next week sure is looking very warm. All of the models have warm air over us. Even the ECMWF has 17-20 temps at 850 mb starting Tuesday. The real warmth doesn’t look to last long, but the nice weather should continue. It looks like the thermal trough builds north from Cali very quickly starting Monday afternoon and evening.
    Tyler

  9. garron near washington square says:

    Yesterday not a total bust IMO. I hiked up the Multnomah falls traihead and summited Larch Mtn. around 4pm yesterday, and it was a beautiful sight to behold!!! The sun was still shining atop Mt Jeff, Hood, St. Helens, which seemed to be puffing some steam. Mt raineer was the only one slightly obscured at the time, but still breathtaking! By the time we got back down to the cars, it was sprinkling, bujt it actually felt GREAT as we were all exhausted! I also was interested to see that substantial snow piles, still several feet thick in a few areas, blanketed some of the protected areas near the top of Larch. The trails were fine for the most part.

  10. Derek-West Gresham says:

    00z GFS shows a +26 several times in the extended! LOL That would be about the same 850 temp we had in our July heat wave last year, and with about equal sunlight hours we would easily top 100. hahaha I know fantasy land..still its pretty funny.

  11. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Thanks for the update Mark!!!! I agree with the models as well, but I guess only time will tell.

  12. luvrydog says:

    THANKS MARK! I bought some seadoos a month ago and haven’t gotten them out yet because the weekends have SUCKED even though the weeks have been great…can you do something about that…PLEASE? I do not have confidence in the longe range either right now…if the models hold through friday then I might go with the 90-95 degrees as well…we’ll see!

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