On to Warmer Weather

SnapshotAfter a wet two days (for May at least), it’s back to our drier May weather.  Looks like "storm" totals were anywhere from .25" westside of the metro area to almost 2" on the west slopes of the Cascades.  How’s that for orographic flow?  The weather pattern will be quite stable and, to be honest, a bit slow the next 7 days.  Onshore flow eases the next two days as the atmosphere itself warms.
Okay, I admit I did find something interesting that changes the forecast a bit for Friday.  A cold shot of air drops down into the Northern Plains later Thursday, which is accompanied by an area of high pressure too.  Both the 00z NAM & GFS show a sudden drop in dewpoints here in Portland by Friday morning along with an easterly wind, especially at 850mb.  So a brief, but strong offshore flow setup for us.  That along with 850mb. temps by Friday afternoon in the +12 to +14 range could easily push us into the 82-87 degree range.  ECMWF agrees, so that’s why our 7 Day forecast is significantly warmer than any other one in town.
Beyond Friday, as we head into the Memorial Day weekend onshore flow gradually increases.  So those of us that have camping plans early (me) will find the warmest temps the first half of the weekend.  But the big story in the Northwest of course will be the DRY weather for the weekend.  Locals know that Memorial Day weekend can easily be wet and chilly…Mark

29 Responses to On to Warmer Weather

  1. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Nice shot of rain out this way earlier, but temps have only fallen to 60-61F.
    I agree with John it looks to me like the ridge was already flat and weakened even more with an unexpected stronger NW flow.
    That would put us in a fairly strong onshore flow overnight-tomorrow mid morning…
    I’m honestly wondering if we get this “warm-up” that’s been so well advertised by everyone..

  2. John - Aloha says:

    OK, I have not been watching the forecast or satellite pictures very close this week, so what happened? Was this weather disturbance associated with a warm front? Also the visible satellite loops shows what looks like a strong NW flow of clouds/moisture, so how we going to be sunny tomorrow in the mid 70’s

  3. jake says:

    i think some thunderstorms are in store, just off the coast around newport headed to corvallis whaht u guys think?

  4. Derek-West Gresham says:

    I knew that it could rain but there were no models that indicated THIS. Its raining pretty good here as well. Heavy rain in Albany.

  5. jake says:

    wow its pouring down rain here in corvallis and isnt letting up so much for just a sprinkle

  6. timmy - scappoose says:

    sprinkling in St. helens. this pisses me off… i havent been paying attention to weather myself lately, just depending on Mark, and sorry to say, but he has been letting me down!

  7. AKB-tigard says:

    wow looking at the 18z it looks like its going to get very warm mid week aroudn wednesday. possibly outr first 90 degree day if it comes together. very warm air mass with light offshore flow. i guess we will see

  8. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    On my way home from Longview, just a few sprinkles, all of the cells are weakening, and no sign of lightning either. Still warm and muggy though, 69 degrees.

  9. luvrydog says:

    rain shadow? looks like everything is getting held up just as it breaks the coastline.

  10. Doppler Dave (NE Portland) says:

    VERY IMPRESSIVE radar imagery, indicating red cells, tops to 30,000 feet, moving onto the Oregon coast right now with this “weak” system. Unusual to see this type of instability with what I thought was just a warm front with mid and high clouds. I’m thinking thunderstorms for us later??? Also doesn’t hurt for us to be in the low 70s inland for additional heating support when the moisture comes onshore. We’ll see.

  11. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    According to my GRLevel3 radar there’s a somewhat healthy area of moisture just off the coast.
    Some oranges and reds embedded in this.
    Even some VIL detected from 6-12value (Hail).
    Perhaps that front held together a bit better and worked with the afternoon heating? I’m not sure.

  12. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Interesting news out of South Africa:
    Weather breaks record
    May 23, 2007 Edition 2
    Sapa and Staff writer
    THE icy weather of snow, hail and heavy rain that has swept across South Africa over the past few days has set 54 weather records.
    The South African Weather Service said 34 new records were set on Monday and another 20 yesterday. Almost all records were for the lowest maximum and minimum daily temperatures in towns across the country.
    Plettenberg Bay and Tsitsikamma both recorded their highest daily rainfall, at 68mm and 71.2mm respectively, on Monday. Plettenberg Bay recorded its lowest minimum temperature, 5.6°C, yesterday. Tsitsikamma had its lowest maximum temperature on Monday, 12.1°C, and its lowest minimum yesterday, 6.3°C.
    The lowest minimum temperature recorded was -6°C in Welkom, while the lowest maximum temperature was a mere 1.7°C in Barkly East. Both were recorded on Monday night.
    None of this week’s records reached the lowest temperature yet recorded in South Africa – -18.6°C recorded at Buffelsfontein in the Eastern Cape in 1996.
    Other towns and areas recording their lowest minimum temperatures yet included: Carolina (-5.5°C), Vanwyksvlei (-4.3°C), Ventersdorp (-3.9°C), Witbank (-3.7°C), Gariep Dam (-3.7°C), Pofadder (-3.5°C), Upington (-3.1°C), Marken (-2.9°C), Taung (-2.5°C), Oudestad (-1.7°C) and Nieuwoudtville (-0.1°C).
    Kuruman, Kathu and Gariep Dam all recorded their lowest maximum temperatures on Monday and lowest minimums yesterday.
    Kuruman went from a high of 9.2°C to a low of -5.1°C, Kathu from 10.1°C to -5.1°C, and Gariep from 6.9°C to -3.7°C.
    There was snow on all high-lying areas of the Eastern Cape, and on some of the low-lying areas, said Weather SA’s regional manager for the province, Hugh van Niekerk.

  13. Ryan (Da Couve) says:

    Rumor has it that Pritchard is a Durant guy. That, IMO, would be the single worst decision they could make. People crashed the phone system buying season tickets to see Greg Oden (the next Tim Duncan) not Durant.
    Anywho, It was cooler than I was expecting this morning with pretty dense fog down at the river crossing the Glenn Jackson this morning.

  14. Austin Ridgefield says:

    In the past the Blazers have made some bad choices in the draft pick, know they have the best position to get the best draft pick lets hope they don’t go with someone else and get ODEN.

  15. Austin-Ridgefied says:

    Had some pretty thick fog out here in ridgefield, just wanted to know whats the latest fog for are area usually, got to go to school see you all later.

  16. Justin says:

    I’m 100% sure we’re going with Oden. Then we probably trade Randolph and in 3 or 4 years have a nice parade…..

  17. TV Weather Producer says:

    AW- Yes congrats to the Blazers. I was at the draft lotto party today and it was amazing. I’ve covered the team on and off the court for the last six seasons and the buzz and excitement rivals anything I’ve seen from Blazer fans in a long long time. I’m proud that the Blazers got the number one pick. June 28th, we find out for sure.

  18. Austin-Ridgefied says:

    Also Typhoon Yutu Was nice got winds of 145 MPH sustained gust of 155 MPH, got to a category 4, Did not hit land at all and is not even a tropical deppresion any more but had a nice eye like to see more like that.

  19. Austin-Ridgefield says:

    Sorry about spelling really tired see you all later.

  20. Austin-Ridgefied says:

    Just looked at precip loop and a thin band of rain is a little off the coast and if it can hold together which It which it might not, people that get up really early for work could see the ground wet if not still raining, still it’s just a quick shot off rain maybe will see. Can’t wait for the warm weather and happy the trail blazers got the first choice talk to you later.

  21. kyle says:

    Gregg, I’m not a scratch, but I can hold my own. Prob… 8-9 handicap.

  22. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    There is definitely a god!

  23. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Back to the weather….
    Oh look the sun is out.
    Ok! Now onto quite frankly the REAL story for tonight!
    #1 pick baby! I know, I know this is not weather related, but it seems our cursed franchise might finally be ending.
    Seems since 1999 or so was when everything went downhill. On the court mishaps, meltdowns, and especially all of the off the court disasters.
    Brandon Roy represented Portland tonight at the NBA draft and he brought us good luck AND the #1 pick!. Brandon Roy is a great person, family man, and the Trailblazers savior. Now if we can just get rid of Zach Randolph who is not mature or responsible which he has proved on numerous occasions. Lol ok sorry I’ll go post on Mike Barrett’s Blog.
    Oh yeah back to weather!
    Looking forward to the rest of this week and a DRY Memorial day weekend.

  24. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Not weather related, but Portland just got the number 1 pick in the NBA draft!!!!

  25. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    It’s clearing pretty fast out here in Hazel Dell. 61 right now, but just 57 at my dad’s house in the Minnehaha area of Vancouver.
    Temps are running about 2.5 degrees below average for May, and precip is still running below average as well.

  26. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Finally seeing a few spots of blue out this way. Perhaps those marine clouds were a bit deeper than previously thought. I doubt we get much above 65-67F today. Looks much nicer and warmer tomorrow and beyond.

  27. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    What’s your handicap Kyle?? I’m a scratch golfer.

  28. kyle says:

    Hey, Gregg sounds to me like great golfing weather!!!! We should play sometime…

  29. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Thanks for the update Mark!!!!

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