Warm Day & Warm Nights

SnapshotWhat a range of temperatures today and what a great performance by models.  I admit I was pretty nervous around 10am when the temperature was climbing slowly.  But that downslope easterly wind always does it.  If you ignore the diurnal rise/fall of temperatures down here at the surface, the warmest atmosphere and easterly flow occurs in the next few hours.  So as I mentioned at 10pm, those areas that keep a light easterly breezy tonight are going to be very warm.  I notice that Larch Mtn. RAWS at 10pm was gusting over 40 mph.  And the Gorge gradient from PDX-DLS has recovered to above 3 millibars.  The easterly flow collapses early tomorrow morning and SUPPOSEDLY we get a light southwest marine surge into the interior by midday.  IF this doesn’t arrive, we’ll be 85 degrees in Portland.  But just like last week, I see no reason to doubt all the models on that cooling.  So I figure we’ll just hold steady in the afternoon after a much warmer start to the day.  A strong onshore push brings a much cooler airmass inland Wednesday.  The rest of the week is cooler, but still very nice for this time of year.  Long range models have been showing a very cold trough moving over the Northwest Saturday-Monday.  Well, the 00z GFS has suddenly backed off a bit.  That has happened a few times in the last few weeks.  We’ll see what the ECMWF comes up with on it’s 00z run.  We haven’t seen significant rain in quite awhile (except for far eastside folks like me who had up to .50" or so Saturday night…oops).  Enjoy the sun tomorrow…Mark

I just spent some time reading about last May’s hot weather which arrived on tomorrow’s date.  We hit 93 degrees on May 15th, 2007.  Then lots of thunderstorms around the region in the days following.  Of course Memorial Day weekend was cool and wet!  You can check out previous blogs from the last 18 months such as this quite easily:
Mark’s May 2006 Postings

45 Responses to Warm Day & Warm Nights

  1. Derek-West Gresham says:

    About 86-87 for my high temp I think. I am using my old thermo so its not quite as accurate as my better one but that one has problems so…anyway played out as I expected today. One point for Derek lol.

  2. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Yeah I know it’s Hoosier, but I personally like “Indiananner” Lol…
    Still 88.7F here.

  3. Ryan (Da Couve) says:

    Well ti got warmer than I expected today. I was hoping onshore would kick in sooner but no luck there. Most the local weather report stations I watch on WU.com are hitting 86 to 87. There is one in Battleground reporting 90.
    I am noticing a light breeze picking up from the NW. Not much at this point but it could be a signal that onshore is getting to make it’s push in.

  4. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    That would be Hoosier .. LOL
    I said Indianian once and my wife just laughed at me..
    The term muggy is used in the forecast out here once the dewpoint is at or above 60.

  5. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Lol I knew ya did, and I believe Sean did too.
    He USED to be a fellow Oregonian :p, but now he’s just some crummy Indiana person! J/k sorta…. what ya say? Indiananner, Indianite, Indiana folk… well w/e Lol
    Rob

  6. Chuckyd81 says:

    Sean…Rob…
    You’re correct about the convective temp, but allow me to add something. It’s the temperature the surface air much reach for convection to initiate (that’s the part you are right about) without any large scale forcing or lift (the part I wanted to add). Most often it’s use is really confined to like…the dead of summer.
    Usually it’s not that big of a deal, but it can be used in conjunction with other things as a forecasting aid.

  7. Weatherer says:

    Exactly, Rob…thats what I meant.

  8. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Well not steamy as in MUGGY per say, more like steamy/toasty is what I’d say.
    I’m now down to 88.8F.
    I just felt a slight SW to NW wind beginning.
    Temps are definitely going to be capped from now until 4PM.

  9. Weatherer says:

    Sheesh. semantics, semantics. My bad for using the wrong word!! …I just usually associate heat with steamy but I guess that goes more with humidity.

  10. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Been checking temps around the area looks like everyone well into the 80’s, and no sign yet of onshore flow. 86.5 here, no E wind now, getting a light WNW at 2.

  11. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Dewpoints there are currently in the middle 40s and temps in the middle 80s. Makes it warm, but definitely not steamy.

  12. Weatherer says:

    Temp just hit 87.0 up here in NoPo…definitely a steamy one out there! Stay cool everyone 😀

  13. Camas Mom says:

    It was very windy here last night! Our chairs were moving across the deck and the first time it happened we were a bit freaked out as we didn’t know what could make such a noise!

  14. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Thanks Sean, and yeah definitely no other parameters exist.
    Well PDX just reached 85F.
    I’m now 89.1F very warm.
    McMinnville is 77F with onshore SSW winds developing gusting to 22mph.
    I’m looking forward to that onshore push and cooler air.

  15. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    That’s correct. Convective temp usually means the temp that needs to be reached for initiation of storms (though other parameters also need to be looked at also).

  16. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    I’m not assuming or expecting any storms as the LI is way above zero, and so many other parameters are missing, but just noticed the Convtemp…. yeah…..
    Anyone experiencing onshore breezes yet?

  17. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    88.7F definitely toasty and feels it outside as well.
    Hmmm interesting to note the SLE sounding gives a Convective Temp of 93F.
    I’m not an expert on that, but I believe that gives an estimate of when convection can initiate at that temperature.
    I’ll leave that one to the experts here.

  18. Antipex (SE Gresham) says:

    I think your sensor is fine, Rob…mine’s in the shade and it hit 86.1 🙂 It would make sense that you’d be a bit wamer too…since I’m up higher.

  19. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    TTD-DLS gradient down to a weak -1.3mb
    Offshore flow is now ending with some remaining E of I-205, western Gorge, SW Washington foothils, etc.
    88.2F here.
    I think I’m about to reach my maximum now.

  20. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Tornado near/in Laporte, Indiana.
    Damage reported

  21. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    I’ve got 3 sensors Rob, all are within .2 of each other. Played 36 holes at the Reserve this morning, was chilly and breezy to start, but it warmed up quick and the winds really died off. Was one of the few times where I couldn’t reach the par 5 16th hole in 2 due to the breeze this morning.

  22. Antipex (SE Gresham) says:

    Almost 84 here…felt damn hot on the springwater trail!

  23. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Regarding the winds last night Rob, had a peak gust here at 34.5 at 2:59AM.

  24. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    You guys are just as warm as I am today. LOL

  25. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Whoops! I meant 87.0F.
    1st typo in a long time.

  26. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Very possible Gregg

  27. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Hmmm…
    I clearly must be one of the metro area hot spots.
    I’m now at 88.0F
    You think the fact it was 72.0F here at 7:40AM has anything to do with it?
    I’ve triple checked to make sure my sensor isn’t in the sun, or having anything reflecting on it, and it doesn’t.
    Rob

  28. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    What a day!!!! 84 here, 85 at my station in Hillsboro, after a low of 46. Was 64 here this morning. Hoping that the onshore flow holds off until evening. Is it possible that we could see mid and upper 80’s today, if onshore holds off.

  29. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    TTD-DLS gradient down to -2.3mb so we still have light offshore flow in the metro area (especially E of I-205)
    Currently 85.3F here.

  30. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Sitting at 86F and under a watchbox until 10pm this evening..

  31. garron near washington square says:

    NOONTIME UPDATE: Cool air almost here…WSW winds at High point near Eugene, 2000ft level of coast range, where at 2:30AM this morning they were gusting between 15 and 30 MPH from the NNE. Salem is now experiencing winds out of the NW, and Eugene won’t even make it out of the 60’s today. Just like last Tuesday we will be seeing the cooling very shortly in the Northern valley as well. Also obvious the heat low has begun to move east of the cascades is the rise in barometric pressure in Eugene, still falling at HIO currently, i’d bet that changes in the next 2 hrs as the wind hasshifted here as well
    .

  32. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    84.2F now (yep it’s in the shade too)

  33. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    I only got down to 67.1F last night.
    Currently already a toasty 83.1F here.
    If the onshore push holds off I might get towards 86F or so, but the TTD-DLS gradient is down to -3mb and decreasing so it looks like we’ll see signs of the onshore push around 4pm or so.
    Rob

  34. Jacob BPA says:

    Just dropping in to say hi Been busy with collecting water data for spring runoff and with the wind project.
    summer outlook looks Dry and warm
    Stay safe

  35. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Wow, 65 degree low last night. Thats absurd.

  36. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    Nice cool, calm morning. 50 degrees with a great looking Mt. St. Helens out the window.
    Tyler

  37. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    It should be a great day for storms, currently have clear blue skies and temps forecast to reach the upper 80s to near 90 this afternoon. It’s looking like definitely will have some strong/severe storms moving through later this afternoon and evening.
    The SPC has IND as one the regions they are monitoring today: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s3/index2.html
    Hopefully the action will wait until I get off from work this afternoon!

  38. garron near washington square says:

    QUICK UPDATE FROM THE WEST SIDE…
    I just love the fact that at 4:30AM it’s allready getting light out, may go and watch the sunrise this morning from Council Crest as it’s gonna be a good one. It’s STILL 65.4 degrees with an occasional wind maybe upto 10MPH. Calm mostly here. Wonder if our (hi)low temp. is going to be a record for May? Thanks Mark for the great weather!!!!

  39. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Ok that last gust just woke me up.
    It’s roaring out here now probably 35-45mph gusts.
    67.5F.

  40. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Impressive downslope winds…..
    This is pretty gusty winds for the warm season I am experiencing.
    The wind is just increasing every hour out this way.
    TTD-DLS is now approaching -5mb
    If the offshore flow is to collapse by early morning it’s certainly headed in the wrong way and not showing signs of doing so.
    I’m still 67.6F with E winds now very gusty 20-30 gusts 40mph.
    I don’t foresee dropping below 64F tonight.
    Rob

  41. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    67.6 here with E winds at 14.6. Don’t think it will cool off too much here tonite, probably mid 50’s. versus the 36 from yesterday morning.

  42. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Thanks for the update Mark. Thanks also for the link from last May it was a lot of fun reading all the posts during that severe Sunday.
    Well right now it’s a very nice 69.6F now. E wind has slightly increased 20-30mph but now higher gusts much louder.
    TTD-DLS gradient is increasing now at -4mb
    I’d say fairly impressive for the warm season to have increasing downsloping E winds like this.
    As far as tomorrow I’m going with 83-87F with the onshore push holding off until 5-6 PM.
    Rob

  43. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Thanks for the update Mark!! Looks like tomorrow will be perfect for 36 holes of golf.

  44. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Hanging around 70 right now. With the atmosphere warming no reason to believe it will cool to much tonight. I expect that we will repel that marine push for longer than models show, but not much. So I still think eighties tomorrow.

  45. offroadjosh-aloha says:

    thanks mark!!

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