Warm Day & Warm Nights

May 14, 2007

SnapshotWhat a range of temperatures today and what a great performance by models.  I admit I was pretty nervous around 10am when the temperature was climbing slowly.  But that downslope easterly wind always does it.  If you ignore the diurnal rise/fall of temperatures down here at the surface, the warmest atmosphere and easterly flow occurs in the next few hours.  So as I mentioned at 10pm, those areas that keep a light easterly breezy tonight are going to be very warm.  I notice that Larch Mtn. RAWS at 10pm was gusting over 40 mph.  And the Gorge gradient from PDX-DLS has recovered to above 3 millibars.  The easterly flow collapses early tomorrow morning and SUPPOSEDLY we get a light southwest marine surge into the interior by midday.  IF this doesn’t arrive, we’ll be 85 degrees in Portland.  But just like last week, I see no reason to doubt all the models on that cooling.  So I figure we’ll just hold steady in the afternoon after a much warmer start to the day.  A strong onshore push brings a much cooler airmass inland Wednesday.  The rest of the week is cooler, but still very nice for this time of year.  Long range models have been showing a very cold trough moving over the Northwest Saturday-Monday.  Well, the 00z GFS has suddenly backed off a bit.  That has happened a few times in the last few weeks.  We’ll see what the ECMWF comes up with on it’s 00z run.  We haven’t seen significant rain in quite awhile (except for far eastside folks like me who had up to .50" or so Saturday night…oops).  Enjoy the sun tomorrow…Mark

I just spent some time reading about last May’s hot weather which arrived on tomorrow’s date.  We hit 93 degrees on May 15th, 2007.  Then lots of thunderstorms around the region in the days following.  Of course Memorial Day weekend was cool and wet!  You can check out previous blogs from the last 18 months such as this quite easily:
Mark’s May 2006 Postings