Warm Weather Arrives

May 7, 2007

SnapshotLadies & Gentlemen…start your gardens!  I just ran over to a "local, yet national" home improvement store to pick up some supplies.  I ended up leaving with pepper, tomato, and strawberry plants;  it must be spring-summer fever!  Of course that’s based on looking at the weather maps too, I don’t usually lose control like that.  After scanning numerous long-range models, most seem to agree that we have a nice stretch of mild weather for the next 7 or more days.  That’s the big-picture this evening.  Of course the devil is always in the details so let’s take a look at the short term forecast first.  80 appears to be a very popular number today…take a look to the left.  It was our first 80 degree temperature of the season at PDX.  The atmosphere overhead actually warms up during the night as a strong ridge of high pressure holds over the West Coast.  850mb. temps reach +15 or +16 Celsius by midday tomorrow, then quickly drop to only +3 early Wednesday.  That’s due to a strong, but dry cold front passing overhead tomorrow night.  So how warm tomorrow?  IF it wasn’t for a sudden upper level cooling and an unusually strong marine push that starts tomorrow afternoon, I would go for about 84.  But models are very insistent on quick cooling to the overhead atmosphere after midday and that marine push beginning earlier than normal…quite possible in early May, unlikely in July.  So just a notch or two cooler is my forecast.  Our model here continues to show a few scattered showers developing in the leading edge of the marine push tomorrow afternoon.  Other models don’t show that so I’m ignoring it.
The big marine push would make you think a cloudy and cool Wednesday following it, but this much drier and well-mixed air coming in behind the cold front, so plenty of sun Wednesday afternoon.  Then we into a morning clouds/PM sun routine the rest of the week as a strong ridge sits over the Rockies and very weak troughiness stis out over the Pacific.  As a result…no rain in the 7 Day forecast again today.  That’s strange for May, but definitely not unprecedented.  We’ll probably make up for it with two weeks of cloudy, cool, wet weather at the end of the month right?  Mark
A small maintenance note…I apologize for the missing/incorrect links on my personal weather page yesterday and early today.  The NWS changed a bunch of their links to text information, which had me badmouthing them…at least to anyone within earshot in the living room.  But at least it made me finally clean some things up and add a few additional items as well.