Close the Gate!

SnapshotA few downers today both professionally and personally.  I didn’t expect such intense showers again today.  Models were too weak with forecast convection with a few lightning strikes across the area and plenty of hail/downpours again.  But finally as of 9:30pm this evening all showers have disappeared off of our radar…a good sign for drier weather this weekend.  As you can see to the right, a nice and very warm ridge of high pressure builds into the upper levels of the atmosphere across the Northwest by Sunday.   That image is based off 500mb. contours midday Sunday, and "prettied-up" for TV.  But there is a problem…it’s not going to be sunny this weekend, at least no better than partly cloudy at times.  Plenty of upper level and then lower level moisture is going to slop through the top of the ridge, similar to leaving the gate wide open for the cows to get through (a nod to those of you eastside).  Differing model runs from various models have pushed light rain as far south as Salem later Saturday and early Sunday.  Since we’ve seen run after run of this the last 48 hours, I’ve changed the weekend forecast to mostly cloudy.  Hard to believe with 850mb. temps up to +11 or so Sunday afternoon that we’ll only make it up to the mid-upper 60’s.  An east wind and sunshine with the same airmass could give us lower 80’s!
As for leaving that gate open?  The deer got my trees again!!!  I spent a decent amount of money enclosing my yard to keep the deer away from my fruit trees early this spring.  No peaches, apples, pears, or apricots this year.  Apparently I forgot to close the gate the other day and this morning every single tree was chewed down.  What a downer after all that hard work and a big mistake on my part.  My wife saw four of them looking very happy yesterday evening just standing in the middle of the yard.  Apparently they knew exactly where to go to get out again.    Close the gate…

64 Responses to Close the Gate!

  1. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Only 78.7 here today lol.

  2. Doppler Dave (NE Portland) says:

    High temps as of 6 PM:
    PDX 79
    Vancouver 80
    Hillsboro 80
    Troutdale 80
    Scappoose 80
    Aurora 80
    I agree with Mark that tomorrow should be a repeat of today, near 80. Don’t see signs of a marine push tomorrow morning to cap temps in the low 70s as the NWS is indicating. Great day today!!!

  3. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Peaked at 84 degrees today, a few degrees higher than i thought i would get, back down to 82 now.

  4. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    What a nice day, great golfing weather and 77.3 here now.

  5. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Currently 83 degrees here

  6. Derek-West Gresham says:

    I think its like 72-73 out this way so no 80’s for me. No doubt the north wind is downslopping out at Brookings. Its got to be brutal lol.

  7. Jesse says:

    Up to 76 out here in Orchards, 80 is suddenly looking likely for me.

  8. Jesse says:

    Just hit 90 in Brookings on the South Coast this hour, first 90+ temp of the warm season in Oregon. The Dalles may be soon to follow, currently in the mid-80s there.

  9. Jesse says:

    2003 and 2005 actually had their first 80+ days after May 15th, I just double-checked the records for PDX. So I guess for the last 4 out of 7 years I was correct. Still hoping for a cool summer.

  10. Jesse says:

    2003 and 2005 actually had their first 80+ days after May 15th, I just double-checked the records for PDX. So I guess for the last 4 out of 7 years I was correct. Still hoping for a cool summer.

  11. Jesse says:

    Since it’s not about tornadic activity over 1,000 miles away no one will probably read this, but it is shaping up to be a warm day here where we live. Already up to 72 at my house, may have a shot at 80 today. PDX may have a tougher time, I will say 76-78 there. If PDX doesn’t hit 80 today that looks like our last good chance for the next week or so, since the marine layer will make its presence more known in the following days. So if we don’t hit it today, our first 80 degree day of the season will be put off much further into the spring than on recent years. I think every year this decade so far we have recorded our first 80 degree day before May 15th, this year may be the first to break the trend. Sign of a cooler summer? I hope, but we’ll seee

  12. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Already in the upper 60’s here at 9am, should certaintly make it into the low 80’s today.

  13. Justin says:

    The Greensburg torando earned its EF-5, been a long time since I’ve seen such vast and wide violent tornado damage.
    Interesting to note that the only other tornado that came close to F-5 since 1999 was the May 4, 2003 Girard, KS tornado, 4 years ago to the date before Greensburg and a storm that might have bee rated EF-5 o the Enhaced Fujita Scale. May 3-4, 1999 was 4 years before that. Someone in KS or OK is going to be rocked on May 4, 2011.
    As for our weather, not much to talk about at face value, but I think we need to get back in the habit of staying on the NW.
    At this point ENSO is a blur, we haven’t seen consistent strong trade winds in the Equatorial Pacific yet, and so the pressure gradients ad SOI are all over the place. Cold subsurface temps remai in the Eastern Pacific around 3.4 and 1.2, so a La Nina is still plenty possible.

  14. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    I was kind of surprised by that too Chucky, to see so many vehicles basically sitting where they were left. My guessing was that it would be close to an EF-5 after seeing the aerial photos and hearing tv reports about trees stripped of bark. Now to our weather, glad to see some warmer and drier air for the next 7 days. Perfect time to get the clubs out and hit the links.

  15. ChuckyD81 says:

    Rob…
    While one can get a guesstimate of winds within a tornado based on SRM…it’s ALL BUT impossible to estimate what the rating is going to be solely based off of radar data.
    That being said…I’ve had a chance to look at some reports and stuff today. Had I seen some of these yesterday I probably would have said strong EF-4…possibly as high as a lower bound EF-5. I only saw a few pictures, and based off of those I was really torn. I could see as high as an EF-5 rating…but I thought there were just as many clues to suggest a lower rating.
    Anyways, Mike Umscheid (forecaster at the Dodge City office) said on a forum that every tree in that city was stripped of foliage, and a majority of them completely debarked. That’s a very violent tornado. He also said that he figures the damage to the school there was a key player in the EF-5 rating.
    There was also another spotter account of this thing approaching 2 miles wide. The damage path measured approx 1.7 miles wide in town, and this spotter said it only got bigger as it moved NE out of town. Would be interesting to know whether it came close to, or broke, the record for widest tornado. The May 22, 2004 Wilber Nebraska holds that honor…setting the record at 2.5miles wide!

  16. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Looks like i should be in the low 80’s tomorrow, can’t wait.

  17. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    I assumed it had to be an EF-5 just looking at the G2G winds just before it hit Greensburg.
    The couplet on storm relative velocity was amazing as well as the hook.
    It’s likely that Friday was the worst tornado outbreak we will see this year in the U.S.
    Also 7-10 lightning strikes per second were recorded with that cell.
    That’s just amazing.
    Oh yeah on to Oregon weather….
    Gray, cloudy, boring but nice.
    Tomorrow starts out what looks to be a much nicer, much deserved stretch of good weather we all deserve.
    Rob

  18. ChuckyD81 says:

    Gregg…Sean…
    I’m not surprised that it’s an EF-5….more so just interested in how they rated.
    Looking at the damage pictures it was clear that some structures had been wiped clean off their foundations.
    However the interesting thing about some of those pictures is that cars were left unmoved…seemingly where the people had parked them that evening after they got home. Usually the rating comes from the most intense damage they find….not entirely sure if that’s the method they use on the new EF system though. So I’m not surprised by the EF-5 rating….but I wasn’t 100% confident it would achieve that status.
    It was a monster of a storm though….it’s definitely THE strongest since the May 3, 1999 tornado.

  19. Camas Mom says:

    OK, I’m bummed because I didn’t keep up with the forecast and I was expecting SUN today! At least we’ll see some in the coming days.
    Sorry to hear about your trees Mark. I know folks around here put fencing up around each tree – seems to be the only way they stay protected. What a bummer! I’ll have to remember your experience when we plant our fruit trees later this year. You can still have a garden! We were going to work on moving ours today, but it’s too cold for me. I’ll wait until tomorrow when the sun will warm us up a bit.
    OH – we did have pea sized hail two days ago, and it was piled up so high and remained cold enough that it stuck around all night and into the afternoon yesterday, at least 24 hours! It was similar to the video that was posted. While it was going on a friend in Camas told me they weren’t getting any precip at all, while we were getting hammered with hail. Interesting last couple of days!
    Enjoy your tornado watching fellas.

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