Close the Gate!

May 4, 2007

SnapshotA few downers today both professionally and personally.  I didn’t expect such intense showers again today.  Models were too weak with forecast convection with a few lightning strikes across the area and plenty of hail/downpours again.  But finally as of 9:30pm this evening all showers have disappeared off of our radar…a good sign for drier weather this weekend.  As you can see to the right, a nice and very warm ridge of high pressure builds into the upper levels of the atmosphere across the Northwest by Sunday.   That image is based off 500mb. contours midday Sunday, and "prettied-up" for TV.  But there is a problem…it’s not going to be sunny this weekend, at least no better than partly cloudy at times.  Plenty of upper level and then lower level moisture is going to slop through the top of the ridge, similar to leaving the gate wide open for the cows to get through (a nod to those of you eastside).  Differing model runs from various models have pushed light rain as far south as Salem later Saturday and early Sunday.  Since we’ve seen run after run of this the last 48 hours, I’ve changed the weekend forecast to mostly cloudy.  Hard to believe with 850mb. temps up to +11 or so Sunday afternoon that we’ll only make it up to the mid-upper 60’s.  An east wind and sunshine with the same airmass could give us lower 80’s!
As for leaving that gate open?  The deer got my trees again!!!  I spent a decent amount of money enclosing my yard to keep the deer away from my fruit trees early this spring.  No peaches, apples, pears, or apricots this year.  Apparently I forgot to close the gate the other day and this morning every single tree was chewed down.  What a downer after all that hard work and a big mistake on my part.  My wife saw four of them looking very happy yesterday evening just standing in the middle of the yard.  Apparently they knew exactly where to go to get out again.    Close the gate…