Nice Weekend

SnapshotA nice day today…luckily the clouds moved in during the afternoon, otherwise I think we would have been well into the lower 70s.  Very warm night tonight with plenty of cloud cover overhead.  Interesting synoptic pattern tonight with a dying front moving overhead, but little or no moisture.  All models show the atmosphere drying out with a dry northwest wind pushing dewpoints down to or below 40 degrees by afternoon.  So even though technically a cold front arrives during the early morning hours…a drier airmass and afternoon sun should give us high temperatures similar to today’s highs.  Then a wave on the front lifts through the Northwest Sunday morning.  This appears to have little moisture to work with too, so other than a risk of a shower in the morning, that day should be dry too.  Definitely cooler though with 850mb. temps dropping below zero in the morning.  Monday we temporarily bounce back temperature-wise with some sun again by afternoon.  Beginning Tuesday, a cold trough approaches and then sits overhead the rest of the week.  That means a return to March-like weather for the first week of May…Mark

22 Responses to Nice Weekend

  1. Derek-West Gresham says:

    That day that Mark forecasted 54, if that happens it will be a record low high.

  2. Derek-West Gresham says:

    I am excited for sure! I would post more if others would.

  3. 32snowwish says:

    Where is everybody? You would think with that deep trough everybody would be posting like crazy since we hadn’t much activity like forever. Must be spring fever LOL. brr a high of 54 on thursday.

  4. 32snowish says:

    That is still impressive even if the flakes dissapear in a few seconds. still any wind?

  5. Derek-West Gresham says:

    I would say with -4C 850mb temps one morning we could easily see a 2500 snowlevel or slightly under briefly but you wouldnt know it even it those areas because anything that falls below 2500k will not last more than a moment.

  6. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    I would say that the snow level could fall to or below pass levels, especially at night.

  7. 32 snowwish says:

    Good Afternoon. What is the snow level with this big baby and are we going to have a minor wind event with this? Have we ever had a minor wind event in spring before?

  8. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Well the GFS model is getting an upgrade:
    EFFECTIVE TUESDAY MAY 1 2007…BEGINNING WITH THE 1200
    COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME /UTC/ RUN…THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR
    ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION /NCEP/ WILL UPGRADE THE GLOBAL FORECAST
    SYSTEM /GFS/ TO IMPROVE ITS ACCURACY AND PRODUCTS.
    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin07-21GFS_upgrade-2.txt

  9. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Yes it would. 🙂

  10. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Interesting PDX NWS AFD…..
    MAY START TO SEE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ON MONDAY DRIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE EARLY EVENING MODELS SEEM A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM… POSSIBLY DUE TO A SUCCESSION OF WAVES RIDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS THE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY…AND THEN THE PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS MAY BE A BIT CONVECTIVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT.
    Pre-frontal convection would be fun.

  11. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Yikes….
    Huge super cells over NE Mexico again heading in the general direction of Eagle Pass, Texas again.
    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=DFX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=574&centery=130&prevzoom=zoom&num=1&delay=15&scale=0.550&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0
    They deserve a break so I’m crossing my fingers.

  12. Derek-West Gresham says:

    12z is the coldest run yet at 500mb, looks like it bottoms out around 535dm, thats unreal for May.

  13. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Looking at most of the May troughs over the last ten years..thats where I came up with that.

  14. ChuckyD81 says:

    Derek…
    Is that just from your memory? (The 30meters thing.)
    If not, where did you find that info at?
    Just asking.

  15. Derek-West Gresham says:

    3dm* sorry

  16. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Must say that trough next week is mighty impressive looking. In fact the 500mb heights according to the 00z GFS would be 5dm lower than any trough in May in the last ten or more years. Still 4 days away but still, looks intense.

  17. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Wow very nice outside today…
    Possible convection southern Oregon, central Oregon, southeastern Oregon, Cascades?…..
    Recent WV Loop 16k view shows the westerly flow pinching off a bit becoming more S-SSW off of California just touching southern Oregon as of 3:00 PM.
    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=west&type=wv&size=16
    A system digging SE at 145W / 30 N has somewhat backed the flow aloft around to the S-SSW.
    It’s pulling moisture from the system at 129W/29N off the southern California coast northward towards Oregon.
    This is easier to see on the 4k WV loop
    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=wv&size=4
    Of course this could only end up depositing high-mid level clouds over the area, but sometimes convection does fire up in a flow such as this….
    Or maybe I was just bored….
    Anyhow….
    Rob

  18. offroadjosh-aloha says:

    Thanks Mark!!!!!!!!!

  19. John-Aloha says:

    Just dvr’d back and saw the state highs, i came in late to the cast. Sorry for for my query.

  20. Mark Nelsen says:

    The highs were in the first weather segment at 10pm, then in the regular 11pm segment.

  21. John - Aloha says:

    Mark, I noticed that you did not show the high temps for the state tonight. Why?

  22. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Thanks for the update Mark!!

%d bloggers like this: