Surprise Showers

SnapshotHave I ever mentioned how much I hate forecasting in spring here?  I grew up in our gray and cool spring weather and it still drives me nuts after 16 years of forecasting.  Weak convection broke out this evening and moved out across the metro area.  Amounts were quite light, but nonetheless the public counts that as a wrong forecast when we call for a dry day.  Models show no decent chance for showers the next two days as ridging builds overhead.  A warmer atmosphere overhead means warmer temperatures down at the surface too.  We head well into the 60s tomorrow with more sunshine, then up to around 70 or so Friday with lots of sun.
That ridge gradually pushes off to the east starting Saturday, allowing marine air to flood inland.  That leaves us cooler and cloudier for the weekend.  The 7 Day forecast is dry, but we could easily have a "surprise" shower again in this pattern.  Next week it’s back to cool and wet as troughing sits offshore.  Looks like May is going to start chilly…Mark

15 Responses to Surprise Showers

  1. weather says:

    There will be a hot front coming through my TV tonight… but it’s not El nino, its El Marko!

  2. offroadjosh-aloha says:

    could use some help guys. need some help with HTML. e-mail me(just click on my name below)

  3. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Nice little dirty ridge, hoping for a warmer and clear day tomorrow.

  4. ChuckyD81 says:

    True they may not have perished, but there’s nothing to say the wouldn’t have if a warning was issued.
    I’m just saying the bloggers on here have no idea what kind of pressure a forecaster in that position faces. True they made a mistake, and it’s fine pointing that out. But I boldly say that no blogger on here would necessarily have done any better!
    I wasn’t trying to say Rob was wrong in pointing out there should have been a warning on that storm b/c there should have been.
    It’s just that it’s not as “easy” or “clear” when you’re in the hot seat as it is when you’re chilling out at home with the TV on, sitting at your personal PC and watching from the sidelines.

  5. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Yes they are human but its their job to catch that. Its an awfully bad error to make. Perhaps some of those people would not have died otherwise. Maybe ran to a storm celler nearby or something.

  6. ChuckyD81 says:

    It’s terrible that those people lost their life to a tornado like they did, and it’s certainly one that the NWS office missed. That being said, you may have “clearly” saw the rotation, but you were doing so from the comfort of your own home. You were not working a severe weather event like the folks in that office were… cut them a little slack. Not to say that they are without fault, but they’re human just as you are.

  7. Jesse says:

    I’m with you on that one Ryan, it would actually be really nice to have a summer with the majority of the days in the 70s with lots of nice marine pushes, and maybe even a couple rainy days in July and August. Not a total washout or anything, but enough to keep the wildfire season at bay and my air conditioner use low. If I liked hot weather I would be living in Arizona right now! Every May I almost dread the time that huge mega-ridge builds over the west and brings us hot, dry weather for weeks on end. I’m up for a sunny, but cooler, Summer.

  8. Ryan (Da Couve) says:

    Woohoo a cold streak! I was getting really tired of the string of years we put together with warm to hot March, April and May!
    If the warmest we got all year was the low 80’s I’ll do a jig.

  9. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Looking towards next week, temps around 75-80 (with dewpoints around 60) seems next week could be interesting regarding severe weather. Though it’s still 7 days away, it’s something to definitely keep an eye on.
    It seems that the weather there is definitely going to be cooler than normal, you guys can keep the cooler weather there all you want.. 🙂

  10. offroadjosh-aloha says:

    Sean, looks like will be having some hot weather later this week. temps could be around 80.

  11. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Today should be pretty interesting weatherwise here today. Under a SLGT risk for severe weather, currently have overcast skies but mild temps. The warm front is starting it’s move back to the north and a dry slot looks to be moving in later this morning into the afternoon. This looks to be a similar setup that we just had a few weeks ago, in which 4 tornadoes were reported.

  12. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Thanks for the update Mark!! Hoping for some extended warmer and drier days in the future.

  13. garron near washington square says:

    Thanks and forgiveness Mark,
    We all appreciate that weather forecasting is at best, not a perfect sport. I love weather phenomena for the very fact it is human based, even with all of our great technologies at hand. Without guess work and mystery in weather, what would people use to start a conversation???

  14. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Thanks for the update Mark.
    Hey maybe the ridge will misbehave and build a little further NW than being indicated right now.
    I’m sure there’s little chance, but hey why not be optimistic hoping for low to mid 70’s for 3-5 days.

  15. offroadjosh-aloha says:

    thanks mark

%d bloggers like this: