Surprise Showers

April 25, 2007

SnapshotHave I ever mentioned how much I hate forecasting in spring here?  I grew up in our gray and cool spring weather and it still drives me nuts after 16 years of forecasting.  Weak convection broke out this evening and moved out across the metro area.  Amounts were quite light, but nonetheless the public counts that as a wrong forecast when we call for a dry day.  Models show no decent chance for showers the next two days as ridging builds overhead.  A warmer atmosphere overhead means warmer temperatures down at the surface too.  We head well into the 60s tomorrow with more sunshine, then up to around 70 or so Friday with lots of sun.
That ridge gradually pushes off to the east starting Saturday, allowing marine air to flood inland.  That leaves us cooler and cloudier for the weekend.  The 7 Day forecast is dry, but we could easily have a "surprise" shower again in this pattern.  Next week it’s back to cool and wet as troughing sits offshore.  Looks like May is going to start chilly…Mark