More Dry Days Ahead

SnapshotI’m trying to wrap things up this evening since I have a day off tomorrow, so a quick post.  Nice day today with lots of sunshine…same thing for tomorrow as we wait for Saturday’s wet system.  Very weak instability gave us a few sprinkles over the Cascades and Coast Range today, exactly as models had shown.  The tough part is that models again show weak convection tomorrow.  This time it supposedly drifts off the Coast Range and into the west side of the metro area in the early evening.  It’ll be
interesting to see if the models nail it again…
    Back to rain Saturday with leftover showers for Sunday.  Models definitely show higher heights now for next week.  Temperature-wise, we should see average to above-average temps next week with only one decent chance for rain…sometime later Tuesday…Mark

81 Responses to More Dry Days Ahead

  1. Jesse says:

    Hmmm… looks like Mark didn’t update the blog tonight.

  2. offroadjosh-aloha says:

    sorry *dang*

  3. offroadjosh-aloha says:

    damn that must be a huge tornado, or rotation supercell.

  4. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    I would if we had anything of interest happening.
    Satellite shows the front offshore maybe solidifying a tad (Sadly that’s the best I could do Lol)
    Just no excitement here.

  5. Jesse says:

    Well I guess that would be pertainant if any of us lived along the Kansas-Colorado border but none of us do, so how about some discussion on what’s going on here?

  6. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Chucky, it looks like tomorrow there will be 2-3 times the amount of “juice” or low level moisture.
    The sheer profile will be more prevalent over a larger area.
    I’m fearing tomorrow could be very bad.

  7. ChuckyD81 says:

    Rob…
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
    Just watch the national radar loop there on the main page. Watch how there is convection popping along the boundary from the convective line over New England….down through Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and into Missouri. That’s the cold front becoming the stationary/warm front as it moves into the plains.
    Neat little image.

  8. ChuckyD81 says:

    Rob…
    Yea, I saw the Abilene storm too.
    My buddy is Chief Meteorologist at the Fox (I believe) station there. Just got off the phone with him a few minutes ago. He said they’re “bracing for severe weather.” He was about to go on air though so he couldn’t tell me if there had been any reports of a nader on the ground though.
    Can’t see how there wouldn’t be one though.

  9. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Yeah the cells in eastern Colorado are definitely becoming a line.
    The cell I was tracking has lost that well defined hook echo, but storm relative velocity continues to show strong rotation.
    The cell just west of Abilene, Texas is very nasty showing rotation as well.

  10. ChuckyD81 says:

    Rob…
    Nice storm….capped by a nice core of high reflectivity’s too. (generally 50-60dbz aloft)
    VIL’s above 60 on that cell too. Nice storm indeed.
    Also a long lasting storm that is now West of Medicine Lodge Kansas….check out VNX (Vance AFB, OK)….nice cell too. Not quite as impressive as the one near Goodland though.
    Also some decent storms in NE quadrant of Colorado…though those look like they’re being absorbed into a line.

  11. Derek-West Gresham says:

    nice day 🙂

  12. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Actually starting to look like mid-upper 70’s for here today. Already 65 as of 11:30

  13. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Looks like i should make it into the low 70’s today! Already in the mid 50’s here this morning with crystal clear blue skys. Going to be a GREAT day.

  14. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Last night was the warmest night since last summer. Only dropped to 66 here the morning, with the LLJ kicking in this morning dewpoints are on the rise. Might some a SFC based instability which may result in a few storms this afternoon.

  15. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Yeah, but it could change back next model run Lol
    It’s all fantasy land, but interesting to discuss.

  16. AKB-tigard says:

    its still shows hot weather but eyah the trough died.

  17. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    New model run GFS sampled points isn’t as hot for next weekend, and isn’t showing that trough Lol I’m not surprised.
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KTTD

  18. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Yeah Rob, especially if we go from that ridge to that trough all at once. Not only from the cold atmosphere but the transition as well.

  19. AKB-tigard says:

    yeah it looks like it will get VERY warm for this time of year next weekend. probably the mid 80’s. looks like we finally will get into warmer weather. and 18z is also a lot dryer and warmer in the long run too.

  20. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    A tiny cell near Castle Rock, and 1 tiny cell over the northern west hills but I wouldn’t expect much.
    Derek, I see that….
    Also look beyond..
    Friday May 5th 500mb -31c. Thickness values 528
    Saturday May 6th 500mb -27c. Thickness values 532
    Sunday May 7th 500mb -33c. Thickness values 525
    Monday May 8th 500mb -31c. Thickness values 530
    Now assuming this occurs that would be one huge trough.
    Very cold air aloft with frequent hail/isolated t-storms.

  21. Doppler Dave (NE Portland) says:

    Now it looks like the showers are dissapating and won’t even reach us. Bring on the sunshine tomorrow!

  22. Derek-West Gresham says:

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KTTD
    My goodness, a +17 next sunday with easterly flow! That could be pushing 87-90 if that happened.

  23. Doppler Dave (NE Portland) says:

    It appears that the developing line of showers over the Coast Range is slowly drifting to the east toward the valley. Sure would be nice if we could get some thunderstorms to develop out of this.

  24. Jordan-Longview says:

    Personally, it look like these clouds are showing much more veritcal development now after they made the discussion(nws)

  25. salemphil says:

    Hey Antipex…..
    Check out the General Discussion on your Northwest Weather Forums. There is a commercial post that looks like a rip off to me.

  26. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Just thought i would share this shelf cloud picture that i found on wikipedia, pretty crazy.

  27. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Yeah what about Oregon?
    Well since our weather was so mundane and boring….
    I mean c’mon, gray skies, light-moderate rain WHOOOOPEEEE.
    IMO not much worth reporting there.
    Okay, okay, so Cape Blanco did have 77mph wind gusts yesterday.
    Other places along the headlands did have 45-55mph gusts.
    I think the fact that I have such a passion for storms and tracking severe weather, not to mention a very good friend of mine who lives just ESE of Lubbock, Texas was in the bullseye of that PDS tornado watch issued yesterday is the reason why the majority of my posts were related to that.
    It was really remarkable seeing those cells go up, being able to detect the tornadoes like I was.
    The power of mother nature, awe inspiring.
    As far as tomorrow goes…..
    Well we will have colder air aloft and should be some sun breaks.
    There’s supposed to be a cap present not allowing for any convection to initiate really.
    But hey who knows, right?
    I’d be okay with some decent convection and surprising isolated t-storms tomorrow.
    Good night everyone.
    Rob

  28. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Actually Antipex I see the SPC put us under a high risk of long duration tornadoes, very large hail, strong straight line winds, among other things. With a screaming jet overhead, LI’s of -10, CAPE of 9000, etc…we can expect the most monumental day of storm tracking in Oregons history. I would start in my backyard. 🙂
    Just a little humor guys. Its cool. haha

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