Record Highs Broken

SnapshotI feel very good about the forecast for today.   Easterly gradient from PDX-DLS was over 6 millibars this morning, which is unusually strong for the warm season.  But, just as models had predicted, the gradient backed off quickly and at 5pm is down to just 2 millibars.  It was a perfect set up…warming from the downslope wind overnight and this morning, then the wind shuts down just in time for peak heating so we don’t get too much mixing.  The final highs for the metro area are to the left.  Portland, Hillsboro, and Vancouver all set new record highs for the date.
This is all real nice, but unfortunately the weekend forecast needs some major invasive surgery this evening.  That "cutoff" upper level low that was scheduled to harmlessly track through N. California has decided to remain a bit more attached to the trough moving by to the north instead.  This allows a somewhat organized frontal band sitting offshore to pass overhead as it’s dying tomorrow.  Lots of clouds and off/on showers is now the forecast for Saturday.  And instead of 70’s, we’ll be in the mid 60’s or so.  By evening a strong onshore (southwesterly) push has begun too.  That brings in cooler air for Sunday.  The only good news is that we wait until sometime Sunday afternoon for the next system to move inland.  We get a dry window from Saturday night through early Sunday afternoon, then the chilly rains return.  As for thunderstorms…the southeasterly flow is always good for storms in the warm season, even when models aren’t too keen on the idea west of the Cascades (as they are tonight).  However, I notice both the MM5 and our own 21z RPM model just out show a sudden "blowup" of moisture moving up the Valley from 3am-8am.  The look of it on the two models looks "thundery" to me, so there is a chance later tonight.  Tomorrow though should just be plain old showers after 10am…I’ll post later if anything changes, otherwise enjoy the Easter Weekend…Mark

11pm Update:  Forecast (unfortunately) appears to be on track with IR satellite and radar showing things beginning to fill in across Western Oregon.  Some nice pulsing storms moving up the east side of the valley too.  Looks live movement is due south or beginning to turn slightly southeast.  That’s exactly what the MM5 and our own RPM model show…lots of showers and the flow turning southeast by daybreak overhead.  Looks like a good morning to sleep in…after hopefully some lightning sometime after 1am???

116 Responses to Record Highs Broken

  1. offroadjosh-aloha says:

    chat!!!!!

  2. Derek-West Gresham says:

    yay I got my DSL back after like 2 weeks!!!!!! yay!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And yes its on that plus a few other things. Its pretty extensive.

  3. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Hmm looks like i might make it down into the mid 20’s here tonigh.

  4. salemphil says:

    Derek, I assume you are talking about a paper about the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). I did a short little 10-15 minute presentation that topic for my meteorology class last term. I would love to see your paper when you are done with it, if that is ok with you. Let me know and I will shoot you my email.
    Thanks

  5. Derek-West Gresham says:

    I have finished all my research and begun work on my paper on this very subject. Its supposed to be 15-20 pages. I mentioned this a while back but thats my update, I have my introduction written. Should be finished in 2-4 weeks, depending on when I have time to write. haha

  6. winterhawk says:

    I don’t know enough about it to debate. I think we’re living on an overcooked goose though. Any significant cooling trend will have a very intense, long-term warming trend to buck. Seems like a tall task. I can reasonably see things leveling off in the next, oh, 20-30 years or so. Otherwise, a lot of folks will be under water by the time I’m wearing diapers again.

  7. Derek-West Gresham says:

    I saw that winterhawk..lol
    Its just another piece of the puzzle. There are actually quite a number of things that indicate the times are changing. I’m sure you all think I am crazy but I honestly believe the Earth is headed toward a substantial cooling period, starting pretty soon as the PDO shifts..but really taking off after the solar cycle crashes by 2020. Now…debate!!

  8. winterhawk says:

    You missed a minor detail…
    April is only 1/3 complete. 🙂
    The rest of the article downplays the 113 year comment quite a bit. Actually, the entire article is kind of cryptic.

  9. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Ya, i believe we are slowly changing back as well, however only time will tell.

  10. Derek says:

    Thats interesting, sign of things changing. PDO is in the process of shifting I believe.

  11. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    New article states that this is the coldest April in 113 years for the United States.
    Weather Trends International Forecast Highlights
    4/9/2007
    AgWeb.com Editors
    Following are weather forecast highlights from Weather Trends International:
    LAST WEEK’s WEATHER TREND (1-7 APR): Temperatures plummeted as a strong Arctic cold front dove deep into the South late in the week. There were 100s of record low temperatures across the U.S. with the Southwest being the one exception. Hard freezes most likely did 10s of millions of dollars damage to trees and crops in the Southeast over the Easter weekend. Snowfall was also the most in at least 14 years with dozens of record snowfall totals from Texas to the Middle Atlantic and throughout the interior Northeast and Great Lakes. Even Dallas had a trace of snow which was the latest snowfall in 69 years.
    After 3 consecutive weeks of mild temperatures across the Corn Belt, last weeks temperatures were the coldest in 15 years. The same week in 1996 and 2002 were cold. Corn Belt moisture was not overpowering. However, with cold temperatures, evaporation was minimal so field firming was at a snail’s pace. The commodity markets are primed for instability and this past weeks weather can only be called unsettling.
    THIS WEEK (8-14 APR): Last year was record warm, this year record cold! April is currently tracking as the coldest April in 113 years – a dramatic change from last years #1 warmest ever. Even after some late month moderation, April 2007 will likely keep the month in the top 7 coldest in history. The Southwest is the one exception, but even here temperatures will cool dramatically late in the week. And, the snow is not over! Short range computer models hint at the possibility of a stronger snow storm from Colorado to Wisconsin late in the week into the weekend. This will be the heavy wet variety. The week overall is expected to show the greatest change toward wetter weather in two years – another very big negative for retail sales and for early planting of this years Corn and Bean crop. Weather Trends had forecast this to be the coldest April in 7 years and the wettest in 3 years. It will very likely be the coldest in 10 years and wettest in three. On a more uplifting note, Al Peterlin, Weather Trends International VP, reminds growers, “Planting rates can accelerate quickly after a slow start. Consider 1998 and 2005. In 1998 only about 15 percent of the crop was in the ground by the end of April, in 2005 only about 30 percent. Still, by the last week of May, 93 to 95 percent of planting was complete and final yields were strong.”
    NEXT WEEK (15-21 APR): More of the same, although not as wet. Another reinforcing shot of cold air for the East early in the week with more frost and freezes likely in the Middle Atlantic.
    MAY: The next solid week for warm seasonal activities could be May 6-12th, and the middle May period could be one of the bright spots of Spring and Summer!

  12. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    would not doubt it, they are in the mid to upper 30’s right now. I got some surprised wet snow this afternoon up here as well.

  13. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    Anyone see the mixed precip in the Coast Range near Tillamook?? On Wunderground

  14. SnowFlake says:

    chatroom…

  15. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    They are calling for a rain/snow mix here for tonight now.
    Windy this evening with a few rain showers mixing with snow showers overnight. Low 36F. Winds WNW at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of precip 30%.

  16. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Big drop in my temperature with that last shower. Was at 54 now 42.

  17. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Easton, just to the east of me, has a dusting of snow on the ground now. The snow level was not forcasted to get anywhere near this low. That thunder shower really cooled this area off fast.

  18. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    This is sooo weird, it was 53 this afternoon and now it is 38 with a rain/snow mix.

  19. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    AM radio detecting lightning from a decent cell north of Castle Rock, Washington.
    Tops 16,000′ VIL 18 .50inch hail

  20. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    wow, wind sustained at 40mph, gusting 50-60mph now. It is getting insanly windy outside

  21. Derek-West Gresham says:

    AM 530 radio is very active Rob! haha
    Looks like a hail producer somewhere near Justins area. Also showers are building up to the west and southwest for another round of storms later.

  22. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    Nope….falling apart & heading South :0(

  23. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    Looks like the one out by Cannon Beach is headed for me. Wonder if it will hail??? :0)

  24. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    44.9 here, getting a very small sunbreak now, but looks like that next intense shower is bearing down on me. Picked up .19 from that last shower.

  25. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    That was intense but short-lived. Back to sun breaking through the dark clouds. No thunder this round.

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