A Taste of Summer

SnapshotIt was interesting to go back and check Easter weather for the last 30 years or so.  I thought I remembered one where I could see snow very low on the Cascade foothills in the late morning.  At the time I lived near Mt. Angel and I clearly remember seeing snow to the east around Scotts Mills.  Apparently I wasn’t crazy.  It was early April 1980.  Heavy and steady precipitation fell at PDX during the morning hours, dropping the temperature down to 38 by 10am, then it jumped into the 40’s by early afternoon.  I’m pretty sure that was the day since 38 degrees at PDX and steady rain with onshore flow should put sticking snow down close to 1000′.  Anyone else remember that?
But lets focus on our warm weather moving in for a few days.  Looks very nice through Saturday now.  No changes in the thinking for tomorrow or Friday (see previous discussion).  GFS MOS (model output statistics) show only 71 the next 2 days at PDX.  The same MOS shows 76 tomorrow at TTD.  Even more interesting is the just-out 00z MM5 from the UW.  It shows around 72 tomorrow, 75 Friday, and 79 or 80 Saturday.  So I’m sticking with my 78 for Friday with good easterly flow through at least the first half of the day.  I bumped up Saturday due to the weak upper low moving in to our south.  That prolongs the ridging overhead and should keep the onshore (cooler) flow from kicking in until Saturday night…Mark

26 Responses to A Taste of Summer

  1. Justin - Brush Prairie, WA says:

    *that was*
    As for the thunderstorm threat, looks better with the 00z models. Could be a small threat tomorrow night near the crest of the foothills, then Saturday afternoon looks good for more widespread potential convection. Both the NAM and GFS take this little system into us more directly than previous runs, the split is weaker and the cutoff vortmax appears to be more northerly than on previous runs, meaning more favorable parameters and more instability. Right now I’d say 40% chance for isolated thunderstorms down to the valley floor on Saturday afternoon/evening, will have to continue to watch.

  2. Justin - Brush Prairie, WA says:

    Good memory OldWxWatcher, the snow you’re thinking of was April 21-22, 1961. Snowed 1-3” in the West Hills and in outlying areas around Portland, latest snow was ever recorded at Battle Ground. High at PDX on the 22nd was 43 and low was 33, one of the most impressive late season troughs in recorded history here and the coldest high ever for so late in the season.

  3. ChuckyD81 says:

    Rob…
    Say, I’ve worked 1st shift this week and haven’t had much time in the evening to post…did you have any questions concerning that severe wx in the plains the other day. I made a comment about something concerning tornadoes, I think, and I can’t remember if you asked a question or not.
    As you may have guessed by that comment, it also appears I’m too lazy to go look to see for myself? 🙂

  4. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    What a NICE evening outside.
    I’m still very warm hovering around 63.7F to 64.4F depending on when the wind comes through.
    TTD-DLS gradient increased to -4.7mb
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KTTD+KDLS
    E wind here has increased now becoming gusty 15-30mph or so.
    Hoping the cutoff low produces some t-storms over the Cascades with at least a decent chance from the foothills to E of I-205 areas.
    With S, then SSE/SE flow aloft it’s a possibility.
    Rob

  5. Robert in Vancouver says:

    Got up to 75.4 in Vancouver today near Gaiser Middle School.

  6. Hehe…hope we get something! I’d like to get some awesome storms this spring.
    By the way…70.3 here; the temp is having a hard time rising here. Perhaps it’s due to the gusty east wind that’s blowing outside? Anyway – I’m glad to see PDX finally go well above 70 degrees for the first time this year.

  7. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Key error in there. Should say “Doesnt it seem to be the case that the lows trend north at the last minute all the time!” lol

  8. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Its warm but windy here, cant wait to see what we can crank out tomorrow. Lets go for the 80s! The record is only 77.
    As for that cut off low I think it will trend north of where the GFS has it, maybe similar to the NAM. Doesnt seem to be the case that the lows trend north at the last minute all the time! I sure have noticed that. Its no “Class A” set up but at least some convective nature showers seem likely, perhaps a thunderstorm with the surface being pretty warm.

  9. OldWxWatcher says:

    There was another April snow occasion in the early 60s. I recall waking up on a Saturday morning and hearing a steady rain. When I looked outside I saw that the lawn had about 1″ of snow on it, obviously from an overnight snowfall. The rain continued most of the day and melted the snow but the high temperature reached only 42°, which was a low-high record for the date that still stands.

  10. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    TTD-DLS gradient now up to a moderate -5.2mb

  11. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Yeah a MUCH bigger steamy, cloudy with toxic gases burp occurred.

  12. Doppler Dave (NE Portland) says:

    Thanks for the update Mark! I remember 1980 very well. One of our best winters, with the snowstorm around January 10th, more snow around the 30th, and we even had a dusting of snow at the valley floor during the third week of March (it was Spring Break for my high school), with the West Hills receiving a few inches. That was a Saturday morning with a rain/snow mix that shifted to snow that accumulated on the lawns. That was also the same week that earthquakes were increasing up at Mt. St. Helens which lead to its initial burp up the following week. We all know what happened later that year.

  13. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    53.0f here
    E wind 15-25mph
    TTD-DLS gradient held steady at -4.5mb

  14. garron near washington square says:

    Wish this was here to stay, to say the least! It’s a nice 45 here now, hope we hit 80 this week. i want to rub it in my dad’s face, he’s living in North Dakota, where it’s snowing still…lol

  15. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    I think the thunderstorm chances are slight, but to really advect moisture and instability from the south is still quite early in the season. Though, looking at the Day 2 outlook it does show a general thunderstorm threat up through SC Oregon.
    So how much do I have to pay, for you guys to send some 70F degree weather eastward? I’ll give you my 30F and light snow? Sounds like a fair trade to me.. LOL

  16. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    TTD-DLS gradient now at -4.5mb and showing a possible trend to increase upwards of -6mb by 7am or so.
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KTTD+KDLS

  17. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    TTD-DLS gradient now at -4mb.
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KTTD+KDLS

  18. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Temp rising out this way.
    55.1F E wind 15-25mph and increasing.
    TTD-DLS now up to -3.6mb with fairly impressive pressure rises over the past 3 hours at DLS.

  19. Justin - Brush Prairie, WA says:

    I still see a thunderstorm threat Saturday evening before the weak little front makes it onshore Saturday night. Cutoff low should dig far enough south for us to maintain ESE flow and clearing, so instability + a weak cutoff low to our south could give us some moisture advection Saturday evening, assuming the timing with this works out perfectly.
    As for 1980, I’ve often talked about the January 7-10 snowstorm, which was one of the greatest in SW WA history.

  20. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    I agree Rob, been sitting around 55 here for past few hours, with light E wind.

  21. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Thanks for the Update Mark!! I remember the low snow level in 1980. If I remember right it was a fairly cold January and February in 1980, and March was pretty cool as well. Looking forward to the warmer temps though in the days to come.

  22. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Sorry about the double posting typepad server is having serious problems.

  23. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Thanks for the update. Nice to see the MM5 going with a bit warmer more prolonged warm spell. Be extra nice like icing on the weather cake if the cut off low “misbehaved” a little.
    TTD-DLS gradient increased to -2.7mb
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KTTD+KDLS
    Becoming breezy out this way.
    56.5F holding steady how as the atmosphere remained fairly well mixed.
    With the E wind becoming established now I don’t expect places E of I-205 to drop much tonight if any.
    Rob

  24. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Thanks for the update. Nice to see the MM5 going with a bit warmer more prolonged warm spell. Be extra nice like icing on the weather cake if the cut off low “misbehaved” a little.
    TTD-DLS gradient increased to -2.7mb
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KTTD+KDLS
    Becoming breezy out this way.
    56.5F holding steady how as the atmosphere remained fairly well mixed.
    With the E wind becoming established now I don’t expect places E of I-205 to drop much tonight if any.
    Rob

  25. By the way, thanks Mark! 🙂 Looking forward to the awesome weather.

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