Cold Weekend

A brief post tonight since I’m a bit behind, plus it’s 11:05pm on a Friday night.

Models are hanging onto a very cold airmass moving in over the Northwest tomorrow evening.  Our RPM model shows snow supposedly possible down to 1000′ Sunday morning.  There is no meteorological reason that couldn’t happen with 850mb temps down to -7 or -8 deg.C.  BUT, showers look awfully weak until we get to the midday and afternoon heating Sunday.  At that time the snow level would be up to 2000′ or so.  So a very chilly day coming up for Sunday with scattered showers and sunbreaks, and the foothills could easily see a late-season dusting of snow…maybe an inch or two above 1,500′.

Warming next week is still on track, although 00z GFS wouldn’t support temps much above 65 degrees…Enjoy the chilly weekend!  Mark

74 Responses to Cold Weekend

  1. timmy - scappoose says:

    just checked. record set sunday, a low of 28f, prev. record of 30. i expect another record tonight, previous record of 29f.

  2. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    32 here

  3. timmy - scappoose says:

    36f here upper 20’s tonight probably. i hit at least 28 monday morning, that reading was at 7am.

  4. Justin - Brush Prairie, WA says:

    I’d say possible record cold is interesting enough.
    As for the Midwest, its fine to talk sometimes about it, but lets not get carried away in their weather. I’d take our climate over their’s every day of the week.
    Tomorrow could have bow echo potential, and a really significant hail threat S. IL/IN,SE MO, AR, KY, and E. OK. Lapse rates are going to be extremely high, 9.5 C at the 700mb-500mb level, over the Western Ohio River Valley and lower MS River Valley, so large, damaging hail should be abundant.
    Wind shear isn’t too impressive, should be highest near the surface low. However, there the wind profiles look pretty veered and unidirectional, so wind should be the big threat. To the south, I like NW AR and ESE OK for tornado potential, as well as SE MO and Western Kentucky, where the winds at the surface will be more backed supporting discrete supercells ahead of the main cold front. Here, the storms can take advantage of higher SB CAPE (4000j/kg) and LIs around -8 to -10, so some really extreme instability will be present.
    If the winds can back just a little at the surface, then the helicity and vertical shear in places like IL, IN, and southern MI could explode and really make for an ugly situation, but for now it winds look too unidirectional to support a dominant discrete supercell mode.
    Just my two cents. I think that the SPC goes moderate, 45% hatched for hail, 45% unhatched for wind, and 10% hatched for tornadoes., on tonight’s outlook.

  5. I realise the weather may seem “boring” here because we aren’t getting hammered by tornadoes and golf ball sized hail. There is still weather to talk about – particularily the low to mid 70s later in the week that seems to have been unmentioned here. My point is that there are plenty of forums out there for other parts of the country that people can talk about – I feel that by leaving comments on these blog postings we should be discussing what Mark has been talking about. I’d rather discuss meteorology and our local weather, being that this is a very specific purpose. I’m sure that some people (i.e. Derek, Offroad, etc…) can point you out to forums that are better suited for discussion of other parts of the country. And I’m not trying to send people away from here – it’s just that I have been getting a bit tired of checking here to see what people are saying about our weather, only to see that there’s 25 new comments on severe thunderstorms in the midwest.

  6. ChuckyD81 says:

    Justin…
    No offense meant, just poking fun. You never give your friends a hard time?
    Lets be honest though…nothing going on here.

  7. ChuckyD81 says:

    Sean…
    I don’t know about going for a moderate risk. Would think that will probably not happen. Looks as is the convection across Nebraska is really just expected to be a convective complex overnight and progress Eastward toward your area. Based on SPC’s Day2 outlook discussion looks like the threat is more of a wind threat because of that. There may be decent enough shear to support a few tornadic storms….but it’s not looking very promising for that. The better areas for a wider variety of storms will be back to your Southwest. Stronger cap in that area, but also better heating…at this stage in the game it appears that would be the better place for more discrete and severe convection.

  8. Justin - Brush Prairie, WA says:

    Chucky, maybe you shoould move to the Midwest? Just a thought….

  9. ChuckyD81 says:

    Antipex…
    Weather doesn’t happen outside of Portland?
    Aside from possibly record setting lows tonight, what else is there to talk about here?
    I say talk about the fun stuff back east of the rockies!
    Just a thought.

  10. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Keep the temp updates coming guys.

  11. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    I will be tracking them as well Sean.
    Continue to keep us posted.

  12. 40.2 here – Portland will have to get a lot colder, and quickly, in the next few hours if there’s going to be any record lows below 30.

  13. Derek-West Gresham says:

    with *totally*, again I have no idea why I put “no”

  14. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Already 46 at PDX with no clear skies, easily on track to break some records tonight. 🙂

  15. Is this the FOX 12 weather blog in Portland, or the FOX 7 weather blog in Indiana? I’m confused.

  16. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Going to be near 80 tomorrow and by Saturday morning could have lows in the upper teens (w/light snow showers). BRRRRR!

  17. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Current conditions in Broken Bow, 52, NW winds at 36 and heavy thunderstorms.
    http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBBW/2007/4/2/DailyHistory.html?FULLALMANAC=KBBW

  18. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Here’s a curve ball for you guys to talk about, in Nebraska there were reports of PEA to HALF DOLLAR SIZE SOFT HAIL.
    Anyways, off to bed.. I’ll post throughout tomorrow as things start to develop, towards the afternoon to early evening..

  19. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Looks like it will go thru or just north of Broken Bow.

  20. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    I’m watching those storms also Rob really impressed with the last frame and its development.

  21. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    ..and so the episode begins..
    Going to be quite interesting over the next 24-30 hours. It looks on the 18z that the low is going to slow up a little bit. This should help in allowing supercells to develop out head of the main cold front. Plus, need to watch and see how this convection evolves this evening and where it may leave boundaries for tomorrows action to develop on.
    Looking at the latest info, I’m thinking that the SPC is going to be going with a MDT risk tomorrow here in the lower OH valley region. Hopefully I will see my first tornado tomorrow, just hope not up close and personal like.

  22. Jesse says:

    I’m surprised how cold this airmass has been the past couple days. It has been in the upper 40s at my house in Orchards all day with clouds and sunbreaks, not even any rain to hold the temp down and it still hasn’t cracked 50. Hopefully those high clouds moving in from the south won’t put breaking record lows in jeopardy tomorrow morning. Some places could even break all time April lows. This is pretty much April’s answer to an arctic outbreak for us. It was 28 here yesterday morning, 32 this morning, may be around 25 tomorrow morning if it stays clear hopefully.

  23. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Yep it’s tornado warned.
    Unfortunately it’s very close to Ogallala the same areas from the big tornado outbreak few days ago.
    SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
    700 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007
    NEC101-030015-
    /O.CON.KLBF.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-070403T0015Z/
    KEITH NE-
    600 PM MDT MON APR 2 2007
    …A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM MDT FOR KEITH
    COUNTY…
    AT 556 PM MDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
    INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR KEYSTONE…OR
    ABOUT 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF OGALLALA…MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
    THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR…
    7 MILES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MILE MARKER 140 BY 610 PM MDT…
    SARBEN AND PAXTON BY 615 PM MDT…
    IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO…THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
    QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

  24. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    According to Storm Radial Velocities I am seeing some couplets denoting rotation west of highway 83
    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=LNX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0S&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=560&centery=169&prevzoom=zoom&num=1&delay=15&scale=0.367&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0
    Might be tornado warned soon if not already.

  25. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Pretty good activity popping in western Nebraska now.
    WNW of North Platte, Nebraska.
    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=LNX&type=N0R
    I would expect SPC to do just that Sean.
    Tomorrow could be a wild ride.
    Rob

  26. *picks up his grain of salt, looks at it, then smiles* 🙂

  27. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Tonights record low is 30, for the month of April its 29. Believe it or not if things go as planned those are both in jepordy tonight. I’m hoping we can beat em.

  28. Jerry says:

    LOL the IGES sure does look funky. But even when its working 100% correctly it still is a bad model. So I would say its working as good as it always does! lol

  29. Grrr…the IGES has been messed up for a few days now.

%d bloggers like this: