Warm Day and Cold Ahead

SnapshotA very nice day today…apparently even my "wild" forecast of 66 last night for this afternoon was too conservative.  I notice the 850mb. temp at Salem this afternoon was +10 C.  That’s 2-3 degrees warmer than models had forecast.  According to the "Mark Nelsen 850mb chart" for March, a +10 on average will produce a high near 66.  With a good easterly flow, up to 72 or 73.  So we could have been even warmer!  We did have a nice east wind through the Gorge and over the Cascades, but barely enough to make it into the city.  Looks like the east wind just touched the airport this evening, but blew at Troutdale all day.
A nice combination of southern stream energy and a cold northern stream system offshore.  It’s moving pretty quickly so I’m a bit worried that we could see completely cloudy skies with light showers before the more widespread light rain arrives in the evening tomorrow.  Tough call.
Weekend forecast continues to be a challenge.  The big picture shows a deep and cold upper-level trough developing off the NW coastline Saturday and Sunday.  If you look at the 3 day forecasts of 500mb. vorticity, you’ll notice energy drops into this trough from the Arctic Ocean and northern Alaska!  If it was winter we’d be talking possibly snow with the showers Sunday.  Since it’ll be April 1st and the showers don’t look very heavy, I doubt we will see sticking snow below 2000′.  A cold Sunday for sure…hopefully the payoff Easter Sunday (the following week) will be a warm and sunny day.  One can always hope right?  Mark

15 Responses to Warm Day and Cold Ahead

  1. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    *BREAKING NEWS*
    Massive brush fire in California about to destroy the famous hollywood sign on the hill. On all news stations

  2. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Nice day here today. Currently 68 degrees with blue skys

  3. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Definitely starting to look pretty interesting here this evening through Saturday night. Warm front is starting it’s move to the North this afternoon, have had quite a bit of sunshine this morning and continuing into early this afternoon. Temps are near 70 right now and dewpoints are on the rise. May seen some development along the warm front, which is progged to stay to the south this evening and move through the area overnight. Depending on what is left of the convection with the warm front and an ongoing MCS to the west will determine just how much of a severe threat there is tomorrow.
    Talk with a few others out here in the region, there is a bit of concern that if there is any clearing tomorrow that we could end up with somewhat of an outbreak in the MS/OH Valley regions. Looking the new Day 2 outlook, the SPC shifted the SLGT risk area a bit to east to encompass my area. Depending how things pan out in the morning, I may go out chasing tomorrow but will wait on making that call.
    Even though the values may not show the possibility of tornadoes, a friend of mine pointed me to this research done by the NWS from a similar type of setup back in April 2004 (http://members.cox.net/jondavies3/042004ilin/042004ilin.htm).
    Definitely looking forward to seeing to how things setup for tomorrow.

  4. Derek-West Gresham says:

    for the PNW that is..

  5. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Hey guys here is another forum for if you want to talk weather and nobody is here. Keep in mind I have a position here so I will have some say in banning if thats necessary. lol But anybody at all from here is welcome. This isnt to draw you away from here, just another place to go if you want. Anybody is allowed to forecast but I am the “official” forecaster.
    http://www.theweathervane.info/forum/index.php

  6. kirk says:

    From the NWS…..POST FRONTAL
    SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
    EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SWING
    ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS WITH FAIRLY
    LOW SNOW LEVELS SUNDAY…POSSIBLY 1500 FEET OVER THE NORTH PART OF
    THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AT MOVING THE TROUGH
    EAST. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT IN SPRING WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
    THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION UNDER THE COLD POOL AS THE WEATHER
    PATTERN DEVELOPS. WILLSON

  7. garron near washington square says:

    wow! from 29 to 69 yesterday!!! asfor me, i wouldn’t trade this weather for any other climate. I had the luck to live in a desert climate, and in the midwest, and i am here because this climate is uniquely calm, and beautiful. you only have to travel 100 miles in any direction to experience it all, from coastal to valleys and mountainous to desert. I think it’s pretty cool to live camp and reside here, but i also know change can be good too, good luck Derek, and I hope you keep posting here and keep us updated…

  8. kirk says:

    Wow went to check weather for the weekend and saw that the NWS is calling for snow showers here at my house. Yuck I was hoping to go ride my dirt bike Sunday. Cant beleive I said yuck to snow. (pretty funny if you know me). Oh well still waiting for a nice string of sunny 70 deg days. Thanks for keeping us informed Mark!!!

  9. Derek-West Gresham says:


    Watch this if you get bored…

  10. Derek-West Gresham says:

    of*

  11. Derek-West Gresham says:

    My life is just fine, but I dont like it here. I will be moving out and going to college, who wouldnt want that?? 🙂
    As for weather.
    1.) More t-storms and bigger storms.
    2.) More Snow
    3.) Way colder in Winter but not without breaks.
    4.) More Severe Storms too.
    5.) No more 8 months or rain 😛
    6.) etc

  12. timmy - scappoose says:

    jeff. for Derek, i bet it will make everything peachy.

  13. Jeff...been there, done that says:

    Derek,
    If you think a change in climate is going to make life wonderful….dream on….sorry to say.
    Best wishes.
    Jeff

  14. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Only about 4 more months in this wretched climate for me. 😛

  15. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Thanks for the early update Mark.

%d bloggers like this: