Wet Winter?

SnapshotSo after the landslide today, I wondered how wet our "very wet winter" really was.  So I checked the last 5 years of October-March rainfall.  Looks like only slightly above average.  The last two winters have definitely been a bit on the wet side.  As always with weather…it’ll be interesting to see if we continue the wet trend next winter.  Moving on to tomorrow’s weather…a warmup definitely in store.  MM5 shows a good 10-12 degrees of warming, which puts us at least into the mid 60’s.   A good easterly flow sets up all day tomorrow through the Gorge, up to 4 millibars, which is pretty strong for the last few days of March.  This will be a mild downslope/offshore wind, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 70 degree temperature here in the metro area by Thursday afternoon.  Much cooler airmass and trough moves inland this weekend, causing havoc in the 7 Day forecast.  Upper-level maps would seem to indicate a cold, showery weekend.  But surface progs don’t show much, if any, precip for Saturday.  So maybe just a chilly weekend with showers returning Sunday?  Anyone else care to take a guess?  By the way, I’ve left the live, streaming radar centered on the severe weather outbreak in progress across the Great Plains tonight.  It’ll stay there until 3am or so.  Fun to watch to the lightning strikes too…Mark

25 Responses to Wet Winter?

  1. Ben says:

    Wow, anyone look at the latest IGES?? Looks like snow is a sure bet on Monday. 🙂

  2. Andrew Johnson (Bartlesville,OK) says:

    I’ve been blasted with a severe thunderstorm for the past two hours…Power has gone off and on…Heavy heavy rain. Ridiculous amounts of lightning.

  3. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    *WARNING LONG*
    Four people died in Texas, Colorado and Oklahoma after tornados swept through their areas last night as part of a storm system that also brought violent weather to at least three other states, officials said today. More damage from the storms could be uncovered throughout today as officials assess the extent of destruction left by the 65 tornados that rolled through six states on Wednesday.
    Two people died when a tornado swirled through their rural Oklahoma neighborhood near Elmwood, said a state emergency official, Dixie Parker, in a telephone interview today. Their names were later released by her office as Vance and Barbra Woodbury, a husband and wife.
    Authorities had fanned out in the Beaver County area on Wednesday, warning residents to take shelter from the tornado and to offer assistance, she said. When they tried to find the couple there was no sign of them at their one-story wood house on a rural road.
    “There was no house left, it was demolished, and we found them in the field,” she said. “One was still alive, the husband. He passed away just before the ambulance got there.”
    The tornados also swept through Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska and Texas, said Patrick Slattery of the National Weather Service. Some areas were also pummeled by large hailstones and heavy snowfall.
    “It was a big storm, a big system,” he said. “The majority of these were almost in a straight north-south line along the Kansas-Nebraska border.”
    “The effects stretched from Colorado and Wyoming, with blowing snow,” he said. An area in Carbon County, Wyoming got 19 inches of snow. Hail measuring about an inch and three-quarter inches in diameter, about the size of a golf ball, fell in the Nebraska Panhandle, he said.
    There were no active tornado warnings in effect as of this morning, said Mr. Slattery, but there were a number of severe thunder storm warnings today in Colorado and Wyoming.
    Mrs. Parker, the official in Oklahoma, said that emergency teams were sent out today to assess the extent of structural damage but so far there were no reports of anyone missing in the county, which is about 1,800 square miles with a population of 1,500. The house of the couple, whose ages were not available, was in a relatively isolated area.
    The tornado appeared to have cut a powerful path through their house, as the neighboring properties closest to them had only uprooted trees, Mrs. Parker said.
    In Holly, Colorado, a small town of about 1,500 people, a woman and two children were found dangling in a tree last night, said the county coroner, Joe Giardone, by telephone. The 28-year old woman, Rosemary Rosales, later died of her injuries. The children and at least nine other people were injured, he said, seven of them so seriously that they needed to be evacuated to area trauma centers.
    Houses were damaged and power lines dangled from their posts.
    In the Texas panhandle outside of Amarillo, a 53-year old oilfield worker from Oklahoma, Monte Ford, was killed when the tornado hit his trailer, said Tela Mange, of the Department of Public Safety.
    Officials were assessing damage in the southwestern region of Nebraska this morning, but early reports showed Dundy and Perkins counties each had four houses either heavily damaged or destroyed. There were no reports of casualties because residents had evacuated the areas, which are hilly in some parts but also include flat farmland and cattle grazing fields.
    “One thing we can say is they are areas of low population,” said Cindy Newsham, the response and recovery division manager of the state Emergency Management Agency. “We can have tornados that go through a lot of area but don’t hit anything.”
    Tornados are normal in the state starting about this time of year through May, she said.
    At least three people were injured in the Texas Panhandle as storms that brought winds up to 70 miles per hour, hail and rain, spawned several tornadoes, The Associated Press reported.

  4. Andrew Johnson (Bartlesville,OK) says:

    Getting a severe thunderstorm here now. There is also a tornado watch.

  5. Grant says:

    Good post’s Mark, i’ve been trying to keep up to date with my weather blog as well…

  6. Chuckyd81 says:

    Sean…
    YES! Gibson Ridge Software kicks tail!
    I had a beta copy of their first edition back about 4 yrs ago. It was totally free Level II (If I remember correctly) Radar data. However their product finally began getting some serious notice and they started charging for it. That was before they had the cities and roadway patches and add-ons. Anyways, it’s quite pricey nowadays. I’m thinking of upgrading my PC later this year…when I do I want to get that new GR2Analyst software package they have out now. Big chunk of change for that software though!
    It’s funny you should mention it b/c I was actually going to mention it yesterday during the severe weather….but I guess I forgot.

  7. SnowFlake says:

    interesting to watch the satellite imagery over north TX….
    http://www.weather.gov/sat_loop.php?image=ir&hours=6

  8. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    When has your grammar been good, Rob? LOL 🙂 (Glad to hear your friend was ok)
    With that may lightning strikes, I’m sure it was pretty constant (I know the NWS term is frequent) but when the sky is lighting up every second I view it as constant lightning. I saw that twice here last year, it truly something to experience in person.

  9. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Looked* Apparently I need to be using the [Preview] button because my grammar is not fantastic right now Lol.

  10. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Also I guess I could add that as the 1st 2 supercells went up NE of Lubbock you could easily depict on radar looping alone that they were rotating nicely.
    Many also had a definitive hook echo which is almost always the signature of a bigger, meaner, potentially deadly tornado.
    Sure saw a lot of those yesterday.
    I saw 3 hook echoes near Amarillo, Texas, 1 near Ness City, Kansas, 1 near Dodge City, Kansas, and 3 or 4 near Bird City, Kansas. The large hook was in the Bird City, Kansas vicinity it looks very bad.

  11. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Chucky..
    Well I certainly don’t know as much as you do about this, but the atmospheric profile showed a lot of winds changing with height out ahead of the upper low which would of been more than adequate enough to get the storms spinning instead of the way the last bout of severe storms went with more linear storms and not as favorable wind shear conditions to produce deadly, damaging tornadoes.
    As I had seen tracking many other tornadic outbreaks you need wind shear wind directions changing at different heights to allow supercells to being spinning.
    I know there’s a lot more that goes into it, but I don’t know if I feel like typing a book Lol
    On a lighter note I just now talked to my good friend from the Lubbock, Texas area and his power was indeed out, but luckily any noticeable damage occurred about 1/2 mile from him.
    He had a lot of marble sized hail and said the lightning was “very intense”
    He said as the line pulled through Lubbock the local mets there reported over 1,000 lightning strikes in a 5 minute period of time. WOW 😮
    Rob

  12. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Chucky – The tool that most people use when tracking storms on is http://www.grlevelx.com/. It’s a great program for looking into storms at various levels and ways. I’m not sure if Rob was using it, but I was and it was very evident. Plus looking at a few storm chasing forums with reports from chasers who were in the field yesterday.
    Saturday is looking to be the day here, that we may see some severe weather here in Central Indiana.

  13. Chuckyd81 says:

    Rob…
    Hey…you never answered my question last evening. What was it you were looking at that made you think powerful, long track tornadoes yesterday evening?
    Like I said, I’m not trying to “trap” you with a question like this…just curious.

  14. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Via Internet, T.V., other sources* left that out.

  15. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    TTD-DLS gradient appears to possibly of maxed at -5.5MB.
    Fairly impressive for the end of March.
    Right now it’s sitting at -5.2MB.
    E wind here is somewhat gusty 15-30mph or so.
    Well let me tell you about the hair rising evening I had last night.
    A good friend of mine who is in the Lubbock, Texas area had asked me last week that if he was not online that if I saw any tornadic cells, any rotation denoted on radar, or knew of a tornado warning for his area to e-mail his phone to notify him that him and his family needed to head to their storm cellar because he said likely his power would of been out and would not of been able to get information via Internet.
    Well unfortunately last night I indeed saw 2 signatures and 2 weak-moderate rotations on storm radial velocity just south of his town headed right for him.
    It was embedded in a very powerful line of storms that raked across Amarillo southward through Lubbock and beyond.
    The line itself had winds 50-80mph within it.
    I have yet to hear from him which is very unusual.
    Hoping he is just without power and nothing worse.
    I tell you That was A LOT of responsibility knowing I’d in a way be helping his family survive or escape injury incase of the worst case scenario which would be a tornado heading for them.
    Well back to the lighter side of things…
    It’s VERY nice outside, and very nice to see that sun and those crystal clear blue skies, isn’t it?
    Rob

  16. 60.6 here…hope it makes 70 today! That would be really nice. It already feels like spring outside – temp jumped about 10 degrees from 45 to 55 when the east wind kicked in, which is a pleasant warm breeze right now.

  17. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    wow, warming up fast. Already 50 degrees after a morning low of 29. I think i might be flurting with low 70s today.

  18. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Very cold morning here but warming up fast. Got down to 29 degrees here this morning and sitting at 38 right now. Thinking i should top out in the mid to upper 60’s today

  19. What a chilly morning for late March! 31.6 here with some decent frost.

  20. Mark Nelsen says:

    Radar is at:
    http://www.kptv.com/video/10250633/detail.html
    It takes a few moments to load, so be patient.

  21. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    Where is the radar?

  22. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Thanks as always for the updates Mark!!

  23. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Thanks for the update Mark!

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