Change in Forecast

SnapshotA challenging forecast season continues the next few days…ugh!  The rain and clouds were slow to leave today, although in the end the gusty northwest wind and partly cloudy skies arrived, just a bit late.
The cold trough is shifting off to the east tonight, leaving us waiting for another chilly trough to arrive late this week.  Two changes to the forecast for the next 5 days.  One is the surprisingly dry and warm weather the next two days, especially Thursday.  I notice our model shows some very weak convection over the Coast Range early tomorrow afternoon, although it does not show it drifting out over the valleys.  Hopefully it stays that way. 
Since the next system doesn’t move inland now until Friday afternoon, that leaves ridging ahead of it and brief warm easterly downslope wind Thursday.  All models have boosted 850mb. temps up to +6 or higher (Celsius).  This easily supports mid 60’s this time of year…so the forecast high Thursday just jumped about 10 degrees!
Showers arrives sometime Friday, but then move out quickly by Saturday morning.  The 2nd significant change in the forecast is for Sunday.  00z models continue a trend of bringing a weak system through N. California and up into Oregon on Sunday.  If so, we may see rain showers Sunday.  Longer range models are all over the place after that time.  I DO notice the GFS doesn’t have much rainfall in the next 7 days…it’s looking more like spring…Mark

17 Responses to Change in Forecast

  1. Andrew Johnson (Bartlesville,OK) says:

    Ya I’ve lived out here since August and haven’t really seen a whole lot of severe thunderstorms, but I guess the spring is where its at. Last week we had a few heavy thunderstorms and ended up with 2.11 inches in one day. It would be pretty cool to see a tornado, but I guess its good we don’t really have a threat of that lol

  2. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Another good storm just east of Sundown, TX.

  3. ChuckyD81 says:

    Andrew…
    By the looks of SPC’s discussion…looks as if they’re thinking they’ll be an ongoing MCS, or some sort of linear complex overnight that will progress Eastward. There may be some discrete cells…but it looks like you’ll just be in a big messy area of thunderstorms. Definitely will be some severe stuff in there though!
    Don’t have Bufkit installed on my PC at the moment so I can’t look at some of the stuff I’d like to, but I would suspect that conditions won’t be as ripe for tornadic storms tomorrow. My blind guess would be that you get more of a hail and damaging wind threat, rather than a big threat for tornadoes.

  4. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Severe storm just north of Earth, TX. Possible tornado embedded.

  5. Andrew Johnson (Bartlesville,OK) says:

    Hey I live near Tulsa Oklahoma. We are expecting some thunderstorms the next few days, any of you think they could get severe?

  6. Andrew Johnson (Bartlesville,OK) says:

    Hey I live near Tulsa Oklahoma. We are expecting some thunderstorms the next few days, any of you think they could get severe?

  7. ChuckyD81 says:

    Rob…
    What do you see that supports long track tornadoes?
    Not implying anything…just wondering what it is you’re keying in on?

  8. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Impressive landslide today on highway 26 heading westbound out of downtown into the west hills. Just checked the news up here and saw some pictures of it.
    Check it out at http://www.kgw.com

  9. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Yeah Rob, i’m watching those storms in Texas also..

  10. Camas Mom says:

    More sun! (I know, I’m never happy…lol)

  11. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Well things are now going POP in a big way in NW Texas.
    The cells are cellular more isolated as compared to the linear characteristics from the last few episodes.
    The radar signatures and storm radial velocity is now showing some rotation.
    These are developing into massive supercells out ahead of a very sharp dry line to the west in New Mexico.
    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=1&frame=0&delay=15&scale=0.346&noclutter=0&ID=LBB&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=0.346&centerx=291&centery=367&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999
    If I was storm chasing I’d set up shop near Lubbock, Texas once again, then head NE throughout the evening-overnight.
    Looks like there is a good likelihood of large/long track tornadoes as well.
    Rob

  12. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Been pretty quiet weather out here the last few days, did have a few storms wake me up this morning at about 3am. But more just a “garden” type variety of thunderstorms and some good rain. Which was nice since I just reseeded my lawn yesterday, hoping that I would get some rain.
    Took a look at the 12z GFS, the storm system that is moving through the rockies into the plains today is going to be taking it’s time getting here. Though it’s starting to show signs of a severe weather outbreak sometime in the next few days. But still a few days out, I’m looking forward to my first event of the season .

  13. Jeff says:

    I just seen a visible snow flake.. Working on farm in Woodburn, and 35 degrees I guess a shower made it my way woo hoo!!!!!

  14. Mark Nelsen says:

    That’s called May!

  15. I’m glad it will be warm at least ONE day…but I’d like to see on and off rain with temps 60-70 😛

  16. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Thanks for the update Mark!!!! I like the forecast a lot better.

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