On the Line

Snapshot2SnapshotA tough forecast again for the next two days as the wet westerly jet stream sets up over Washington and southern British Columbia.  As you can see to the right, the forecasts for Seattle and Eugene are quite simple…either warm and dry or wet and cool.  From Longview down to Portland we are on the line though.  Both the 00z MM5 and our own RPM model continue to show the rainfall line staying just barely north of Portland Thursday and just about down to Portland later Friday.  Whew…it’s going to be close.
Easier forecasting Saturday and Sunday;  a cold front sweeps inland late Saturday with plenty of pre-frontal rain.  Then showers taper off during the day Sunday.  We may get a brief break Monday before more "troughiness"  arrives Tuesday-Thursday.  Oregon spring break is looking very wet.  Maybe at least you Washingtonians can get nice weather the following week for your spring break.

66 Responses to On the Line

  1. Honestly, Timmy, with all our differences, I have to agree.

  2. timmy - scappoose says:

    ive seen you make a few wild statements Derek…

  3. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    Christina…Don’t Go!
    90% chance of rain Sat. Sorry!

  4. Derek-West Gresham says:

    “I’ve seen people question the validity of your statements, but never you being treated like an idiot.”
    Thats just the thing though. When I make a statement it is correct. Simply because if I make the statement I make sure it is correct before I do so or leave a hint of how I am unsure along with it. I never just make wild statements, please remember that everybody.

  5. Camas Mom says:

    I cannot believe the GFS is still holding for snow! Still a week away but I actually expected a change by now. Time will tell….

  6. Christiana in Beaverton says:

    Question: I was wondering if the weather will be “nice” enough for hubby and I to go fishing at Haag lake on Saturday. Thanks.

  7. offroadjosh-aloha says:

    actually the GFS on is new.

  8. Chuckyd81 says:

    Derek…
    Everyone treats you like an idiot b/c you are one. No…I’m kidding.
    I’ve never seen anyone treat you like an idiot…I’ve seen people question the validity of your statements, but never you being treated like an idiot.
    Having said that I don’t know what to say about that GFS link you put up. I have a friend who works for the modeling agency within NOAA….the folks responsible for improving upon the MOS equations…testing new models…and other neat stuff like that. I’ve emailed him to see what he knows about it! I’d never heard/seen anything about that GFS Hybrid deal you linked to…so I guess I might have to say you’re right…at least for the time being.

  9. winterhawk says:

    Must be your charming disposition and abundance of people skills, Derek. šŸ™‚

  10. Derek-West Gresham says:

    I don’t understand why everybody doubts me all the time. Everybody treats me like I am an idiot and that I don’t know anything, and am always wrong. I know as much as nearly anybody on here from my intense weather studying the last few years. Here is my proof, this is about the experimental GFS.
    http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/para/paralog.gsihybrid.html

  11. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Actually no you are wrong. I dont need to see what your telling me because the two models are different. They show different things therefore it cannot be refuted that they are two different models. The GFS is new and thats that. šŸ™‚
    Aren’t I friendly today.

  12. Jerry says:

    515 thickness -8 850mb temps -40 500mb temps… hmmm….. I imagine with the sun angle we are going to see some active weather next week if it verfies… The crazy thing is the GFS has been throwing it in several runs now.

  13. Jerry says:

    To bad its almost arpil next weeks set up looks nice!!! It always works out this way huh? Things like this never seem to happen when it would be prime.

  14. Chuckyd81 says:

    Derek…
    Sorry boss…it’s the website, not the model, that is experimental.
    Check this site:
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
    Note the differences. When I was in college a few years ago…they switched to that site, with the big addition being that you could loop the model products.
    The site you linked to is just an experimental website with new additions…not to any “NEW” models. The newest model to hit the field was the WRF (NAM) model that went operational last year.

  15. Derek-West Gresham says:

    wrong..The model just came out a few days ago and it is experimental. I have heard from different sources.

  16. Chris says:

    Derek…the webpage is experimental not the model.

  17. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Its still highly experimental but this is the new one chucky, the are trying to fix the problems with the old one.
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/

  18. offroadjosh-aloha says:

    Just got back from the AMS Meeting at KPTV was alot of fun.

  19. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Got a heck of a thunderstorm moving through right now.. Frequent lightning and very heavy rain, makes it hard to get to sleep. Some strikes have been close, especially when you see the strike and hear the thunder within a second of the flash..
    Just an absolute ton of lightning flashes that I can see in the sky. Hello Spring!

  20. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    Did anyone catch the sunset? I was on my way home from work…it was beautiful. Break in the clouds on the western horizon allowed the sun to shine through and highlight the clouds and with a little rain, there was a brilliant but short-lived rainbow to the east.
    Tyler

  21. ChuckyD81 says:

    Derek…
    I’ve not been on the blog in quite some time…just busy I guess. Anyways, I thought I would get on today and scroll through the posts. I noticed your first post for this thread mentioned something about an “Old” and “New” GFS.
    Can you elaborate on that?

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