Friday Night Slowdown

Snapshot_32Don’t know if you heard about this, but today a name was chosen for the December 14th windstorm.  In the Seattle area at least it’ll be known as the Hannukah Eve storm.  The details about the contest are on the Seattle National Weather Service home page.  It’ll be interesting to see if the name sticks.  Remember the "Coho" wind?  Back in 1997 we had a similar contest to name the Gorge east wind and received something like 6000 names.  People hated the name in the end, especially those most affected by the wind on the east side of the metro area.  Apparently it will always be called the East wind or Gorge wind.  As for our weather?  Pretty slow this weekend with a building ridge overhead.  The last of the northwesterly flow is sending strongly orographic (mountain focused) rainfall into the NW part of Oregon.  That should end overnight  as the ridge continues building.   Expect a slow breakout tomorrow with plenty of moisture lingering and surface high pressure directly overhead.
A bit of a change to Sunday’s forecast possible as models are persistent in pushing a weak system north and into the Northwest Sunday afternoon.  Even our brand new 03z RPM (just out at 10:45pm) shows precipitation suddenly developing over Northwest Oregon between 2-5pm Sunday.  This is very similar to a warm season thunderstorm pattern where a disturbance moves north along the coastline.  It’s too early in the season for thunderstorms with this, and no model shows low lifted indexes or high CAPE at that point.
Westerly flow next week will give us plenty of rainfall, but mild temps.  Definitely looks like wet March weather.  No risk of snow below 3000′ with this setup.  Enjoy the weekend and try to get outdoors while it’s dry…Mark

59 Responses to Friday Night Slowdown

  1. kirk says:

    More snow for Camas Mom and me next week???? Latest sticking snow for PDX ever???????? Dont look now but next week looks cold. What a waste of a good snow pattern. Why couldn’t it come in Dec or Jan. Cant beleive I’m saying it but I am ready for sun and 70’s.

  2. WeatherLurker says:

    It’s really warm out! Already 62 here in Tigard. We might see upper 60’s today.

  3. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Beautiful day outside day. Currently 50 degrees here with partly cloudy skys. Boring weather yes, but it is great to have a break from the snow and cold and enjoy a nice “warm” day.

  4. IceKeeg - Close-in SE PDX says:

    Gorgeous weather – I happily wore shorts taking my dog for a long walk yesterday. I know it’s been a good winter when I’m pretty much in tune with the changing seasons – the winter we had prepped me perfectly for looking forward to plenty of daylight and warming temps ahead.
    One note – still looking at temps 10 to 20 degrees below normal up in Alaska this week (judging by Anchorage/Fairbanks) temps – which part of the country is looking to get a late winter outbreak out of this? Sounds like the NE is pretty frigid right now, so maybe that will be the extent of any further arctic air this year.

  5. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Looking at the next week or so.. Temps are definitely on the upswing here in the Midwest, which is a great thing! After having all day snow showers on Saturday, eventually getting about an inch. I’m ready to see the snow retreat back to the North, until next winter. After being below average snowfall wise, we actually ended up slightly above average (21.8″ avg -> 06/07 saw 24.8″). Of course the February Blizzard is when we saw most of the snowfall.
    March 1st is the “official” start of the severe weather season here. As the Jet Stream starts moving back towards the north now. Have to be on-guard for potential tornado outbreaks, luckily we had our average # of tornadoes “20”. But Illinois had several outbreaks, hopefully that doesn’t shift eastward this year.
    Nothing like a Midwest thunderstorm, with such vivid lightning. You gotta love it!

  6. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    They have tried to have a observation station up there, along with a flag pole, but they are no match for the wind. A flag pole once put there and said to stand in 100 mph winds was bent over. My highest hand-held gust there is 95 mph and that was last fall.
    Tyler

  7. Crowne Point = My favorite relax spot. marine Drive (Airport) and Seaside are close behind though. yeah, winds get real gusty up there. During a windstorm last winter my buddies and I went up there, we had nylon baggy coats, the wind was able to give us enough lift to knock us off our feet (granted we don’t exactly way a ton).

  8. I’ve been up at Crown Point when wind is gusting 70-90mph, which happens more often than you would think. It’s nice that it’s only about 10-15 minutes away 😀

  9. luvrydog says:

    well, since I live on the westside and rarely expierence the east winds as they roar, I thought I would tellyou that I was at crowne pointe today on my way to multnomah falls and I swear my jeep was almost blowing over. I would estimate that the wind was gusting to near 60 miles per hour up there, maybe more…I would say about 45 mph on 84 heading east…kept thinking my hood was going to blow up over my windshield! up there 60 may have been conservative, anyone know if crowne pointe has an observation station? I’d be interested to see what it was gusting to up there, crazy!!!

  10. Derek-West Gresham says:

    I love thunderstorm season, its usually a lot more fun than winter for some reason. I will never forget the actual funnel I saw hanging from a severe thunderstorm in Utah. Can’t wait to head there in early August!

  11. offroadjosh-aloha says:

    My Forecast March 5th-11th 2007
    Monday
    High- 58F
    Low- 44F
    Precipitation- Possible light Shower early. Trace
    Wind- 5-10Mph S
    Conditions- Mostly Sunny early, then Partly Cloudy Late
    Tuesday
    High- 58F
    Low- 43F
    Precipitation- None
    Wind- 5-10Mph SE
    Conditions- Mostly Sunny
    Wednesday
    High- 55F
    Low- 44F
    Precipitation- Rain .12in
    Wind- 5-10Mph S
    Conditions- Mostly Cloudy
    Thursday
    High- 50F
    Low- 42F
    Precipitation- Rain .11in
    Wind- 5-10Mph SW
    Conditions- Mostly Cloudy
    Friday
    High- 50F
    Low- 40F
    Precipitation- Rain .10in
    Wind- 5-10Mph S
    Conditions- Mostly Cloudy
    Saturday
    High- 56F
    Low- 42F
    Precipitation- Rain .15in
    Wind- 5-10Mph SW
    Conditions- Cloudy
    Sunday
    High- 58F
    Low- 44F
    Precipitation- Rain .12in
    Wind- 5-10Mph SW
    Conditions- Mostly Cloudy

  12. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Andrew – I really do look forward to our Spring/Summer thunderstorms.
    I remember the last few springs we’ve had an increase in cold air funnels, and or small F0-F1 tornadoes primarily touching down over western Washington.
    I remember last June we had some t-storms as we were a persistent southerly flow for about a month.
    Last summer was excellent with the surprise severe t-storm of July 3rd as well as the spectacular ones the follow morning on the 4th primarily over the valley/I-5 corridor areas.
    Those storms that morning had some fantastic cloud structure within them as well as the impressive storm on July 3rd.
    I even remember tracking that cell up through Clackamas County mentioning that it had ‘bow echo’ characteristics.
    So yes Lol I can’t wait for the Spring/Summer t-storms.
    Yeah Lol np Kirk.
    I was surprised also that it was quite windy late last night through early morning.
    I see the TTD-DLS gradient is now -4.8mb.
    It’s breezy outside tonight.
    *I’m in Chat*
    Rob

  13. kirk says:

    Crap soory Rob your post is AM not PM. DRRRRR!!!!

  14. kirk says:

    Rob I cant beleive it is that windy your way. I just road my motorcycle up on a ridge overlooking the Gorge and no wind. I am on the Washington side so maybe the wind is banking up on your side of the river???

  15. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    I think winter has more interesting weather, but summer can be very interesting especially if you have a weather station. It’s fun to watch the temp drop when a marine push comes in, or the wind switch direction from a thunderstorms outflow.
    Tyler

  16. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Is winter weather the only interesting type of weather lol? Personally i am looking forward to spring thunderstorms now and warm weather.

  17. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    TTD-DLS now -6.0mb
    Corbett is now exceeding 50mph.
    It’s roaring pretty good out this way now to the point one can hear it very easily.
    I’d estimate the gusts out here 35-45mph and possibly a tad stronger at times.
    Rob

  18. IceKeeg - Beaverton says:

    Oh, I know Andrew – it really is that unbelievable to those of us used to the markets out here. Check out their lcoal MLS. Unless something has drastically changed in the last few years, I’d bet you’ll find plenty of listings for traditional homes in the 20 to 50 thousand range.
    In fact, here you go:
    http://property.buffaloniagarahomes.com/property/
    search for “Buffalo all areas” and choose the 20000 to 50000 range. Look at the houses that come up! Again, this seems like a consistent theme through the mid sized cities of the east – boomtowns in the 1800s and early 1900s before their early industrial era economies evaporated.

  19. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    TTD-DLS -5.8mb.
    Becoming very gusty.

  20. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    TTD-DLS gradient -5.3mb.
    Doesn’t seem impressive yet the wind is REALLY increasing out this way towards the Gorge.
    I’m now having gusts slam into the front of my house noticeably so.
    I’d estimate the gusts are 35-40mph.
    Rob

  21. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    TTD-DLS gradient now -5.1mb
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KTTD+KDLS
    I’m a little surprised by this.

  22. timmy - scappoose says:

    Lurvy, congradufrickenlations! *pats lurvy on the back*

  23. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    Very nice tonight…looking out my window I have watched the fog be a mere layer over the fields, now it has lifted and it is fogging up here. Temp is 45, nice and mild, warmer than most day time highs the last week or two.
    Tyler

  24. Derek-West Gresham says:

    “P.S. Derek, don’t lose your intrigue for winter weather while in Utah. I can already see the boringness and hard work cause of the snow and cold. Kind of glad I live in a climate like ours. I appreciate it more.”
    I’ve lived there before and the climate has plenty to offer. Thunderstorms are amazing, I have a lot of stories. 🙂 Plus the snow usually melts in between round of it. So its not 5 feet deep by winters end.

  25. offroadjosh-aloha says:

    ok i updated it guys!!! i will have my spring/summer outlook done here by sunday .
    Fall and winter 2006 Review
    September was an average month except for the precipitation, where we were almost an inch below average. Precipitation on average in September is 1.55in.The average high for September is 76 degrees and the low is 49 degrees. We averaged a high of 74 and a low of 45 degrees with .54in of rain. There were no significant events in September, although the beginning was a lot warmer than normal, with temps in the 90s.
    October was a lot cooler than average with the lowest temp being 20 degrees. The highs were a little cooler than normal with them only being 63 degrees the average high temp in October is 65 Degrees and the low is 43 degrees. The lows were a little below average being 37 degrees. Precipitation was below average with only (.9inches) for the month’s total rainfall the average rainfall for October is 2.67in. Other than the very cold temps in late October there were no significant events in the month of October.
    November was a very wet and wild month, with snow, record flooding, record winds, and record cold temps. November high temps were averaged at 51 degrees and the low temps were averaged at 39 degrees with the normal high being 52 degrees and the normal low being 37 degrees. November normal precipitation is 5.9inches we had 12.85inches, we broke the all time record for the wettest November ever recorded. With that came record flooding on the Oregon coast, the Wilson river in Tillamook hit its highest ever flood stage, even higher than 1996 flood! The Portland Metro area saw heavy flooding. The low temps at the end of November were down around 20 degrees with highs only in the 30s. November also had high winds with gusts over 100mph on the Oregon coast while the Portland Metro area had gusts to 50Mph. The last week of November had about 1inch of snow. November was the start of a very wild winter.
    December also was a very wild month even more so wind wise than November. December had high temps that averaged to 45 degrees and low temps that averaged to 32 degrees the normal high temp for December is 46 degrees and the normal low temps is 35 degrees. We had several major wind events, one causing major widespread damage. We had gusts in the Portland Metro area over 65Mph, and on the Oregon Coast gusts hit 121Mph!!! December was also about 1inch wetter than normal, most of which fell during the major windstorm of December 14th and 15th. December showed also to be a very exciting month for wild weather. The average rainfall for December is 6.33in. We ended December with 4-5 major wind storms, and above normal rainfall.
    January was a much calmer month, but still had a little excitement.
    We were a little below normal for high and low temps. The average high for January is 46 degrees and the average low is 35 degrees. This month our high temps averaged 44 degrees and the low temps averaged 29 degrees. The average rainfall in January is 5.76in we had a total of 3.23in. We also had a couple small snow events totaling up to 4inches. Those events caused some problems in the metro area, including several wrecks. Our lows for January were below average with our lowest temp being 14 degrees. Other than the snow events and being a little below normal for precipitation, there were no major events in the month of January.
    February was a fairly calm month with one snow event, in late February, which caused no problems in the metro area, but up in the coast range almost 2ft of snow fell. February was an average month temperature wise. The average rainfall for February is 4.72in we had a total of 3.80in.With the average high 51 degrees and the average low 36 degrees. The average high temp for February is 50 degrees and the average low temp is 36 degrees. We had a high of 61 degrees one day, but we also had a low of 18 degrees one day, so it was a little cool, for a day or to. There were no major events in the month of February.
    March has had a good start, with a small snow event at the very beginning. Which cause no problems in the metro area. March so far has been way below average for high and low temps. The average high temp for this time of year is 57 degrees and the average low temp is 39 degrees. Rainfall in March on average is 3.93in so far we are at .51in. We have been around 45 degrees, for the past week, but we are slowly warming up. So far there have been no major weather events in the month of March. I have a feeling we are going to have a slightly warmer than average March and also a much wetter March.

  26. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    oh oops, missed the part about them being in a rotted out idustrial area haha. That price could be then i guess.

  27. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    $20,000? that would be pretty darn cheap for even a small house. Sure it was not higher? Not doubting you, but that is darn cheap, if true i would be buying those up like non other haha

  28. IceKeeg - Beaverton says:

    Mat – another difference out there is the housing market. Pick up a flyer and look for listings in older neighborhoods close to downtown. Houses go for a tenth of what they would here in a similar neighborhood. I’m not kidding – I was visiting family in Rochester a few summers ago and gorgeous traditional homes (often remodeled) were going for $20,000 plus. So another reason to be thankful for living out here is that we don’t live in a depressed, rotted out industrial belt city where that is the best price a well-built home can fetch. The same sad story is repeated through a lot of the mid-sized cities over in that region that for the most part are losing population.
    Also – a big visual difference is that fences are really rare. We saw so many subdivisions and neighborhoods where there was often not a single fence in sight. Compare that to this part of the country.
    Just some very off-topic notes! Apologies for going on a tangent.

  29. Mat says:

    I’m in Buffalo now and theres probably 12 inches on the ground. It’s cold and now I can see how it wouldn’t be a big deal if we actually got snow that stayed for awhile on an average. It’s been snowing most of the day with no real accumulation. Weird. It doesn’t even stick on cars or roofs or roads, granted they salt the roads. Just different.
    Oh ya, people are more rude here too, like they’re the only ones that live here. **s holes really. Later all.
    P.S. Derek, don’t lose your intrigue for winter weather while in Utah. I can already see the boringness and hard work cause of the snow and cold. Kind of glad I live in a climate like ours. I appreciate it more.

  30. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Anybody who hasn’t seen this needs to, the la nina is exploding out of control right now and will likely continue.
    Todays SSTA

    Compare to just 5 days ago.

    And a month ago.

    This could be as big as 88/89 or maybe bigger.

  31. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Good post last night Luvry.
    Hey wow there is a star out shining.
    Yeah the sun is making a rare appearance right now.
    I’m sitting at a toasty 58.9F.
    It feels nice for a chance doesn’t it guys? (and gals).

    Now for something completely different.
    I’m Rob.
    35 Male/Single
    Seeking an evening with an intelligent lady for intriguing, compelling conversation about baroclinic zones, lifted indices, and of course my all-time favorite “rear flanking downdrafts.” Nothing like stimulating conversation about RFD’s while enjoying a freshly baked Di Giornios pizza that really caps off an evening.
    Sorry just trying to mix things up around here Lol
    Rob

  32. josh"fromEverett,WA" says:

    No close call here. Did I mention we ended up with 13 inches here..:)
    Thanks to the convergence zone yet again. BTW, Seattle had no reported accumulation…amazing stuff only being 20 miles north.

  33. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    VERY nice day here today. Currently 51 degrees with clear blue skys.

  34. luvrydog says:

    Well…just wanted to recap my thoughts on the cool period we just went through…kinda funny how living here 30 years can put you almost right on. I just feel a lot people on here don’t respect or listen to my forecast or “feelings” about the upcoming period..just thought I’d post my thoughts on the last period from Feb 20th…pretty on if you ask me.
    “SO…based on current model data, the time of year, and my feeling living here for 30 years…these are my THOUGHTS at this point.
    Portland (city) sees a couple snow showers mixed in that gets everyone excited next week, however it will not be anything big. As for 500 feet, I believe anyone at 500 feet has a good chance of seeing some light sticking snow next week at any given point during the week but for the most part, it will be rain. At 1000 feet, I believe there is a very good chance you folks could be looking at a very white week, meaning more snow than rain, possibly extending to the many inches of snow by mid next week.
    Those are my thoughts now, however vag, it’s just to far out to tell anything at this point. Yes, indices are lined up, there’s a very nice NNW flow setting up next week but this is our typical close call scenario here in Portland and how many times has it been a near miss???? I don’t see any really cold air feeding through the gorge with this scenario either, which means we would solely be dependent on the air coming off the ocean, which typically spells disaster for the lowest elevations in NW Oregon.
    I will elaborate more on my thoughts as the days progress, just glad to be back talkin weather with all you folks!”
    I will probably take a break from blog for a bit until something big comes, my thoughts are…the next blog infestation will come from something…probably the first big thunderstorm outbreak…but we’ll see.

  35. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    We had stronger winds than 55-65mph gusts that night.
    I know there were several reports of 70+mph with even an isolated report from NE Salem of 80mph.
    I believe it because I vividly remember reporting that evening that Rockhouse 1 observation sitting at 1,797′ just to the west of Salem in the coast range hit 95mph.
    I personally don’t feel the name for the wind storm will stick very well because I feel the majority of people don’t celebrate Hannukah, so therefore they would not be as likely to remember it.
    I think “The December Blow” would of been nice.
    Rob

  36. SnowFlake says:

    chat room…

  37. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    lol guess i should have read marks post before posting myself haha.

  38. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    HERE WE GO, about time.
    Weather Service Announces Windstorm Name
    March 2, 2007, 2:16 PM PST
    Remember the National Weather Service contest to officially name the mid-December windstorm?
    The NWS just announced the winner: The Hanukkah Eve Windstorm.
    The Weather Service says 39 people suggested the name. To choose an official winner, they put all those names into a drawing — the winner, Clyde Hill of Burien.
    In all, the Weather Service says, more than 5,700 names were suggested in more than 6,200 e-mails received during the two weeks they ran the contest.
    The official Weather Service announcement also includes these statistics from the storm:
    * 15 deaths
    * 1.5 million people without power
    * Thousands of trees blown down
    * Hundreds of homes damaged
    NWS managers say they hope having an official name will help people in future discussions of the storm.
    Copyright © 2007, KCPQ

  39. offroadjosh-aloha says:

    lol derek.
    reposted….
    Guys i typed this up tonight, i will add more to the months later this week.
    Fall and winter 2006 Overview
    September was an average month except for the precipitation, where we were almost an inch below average. Their were no significant events in September, the beginning was a lot warmer than normal, with temps in the 90s.
    October was a lot cooler than average with the lowest temp being 20 degrees. The highs were a little cooler than normal. Precipitation was also below average. Other than the very cold temps in late October there were no significant events in the month of October.
    November was a very wet and wild month, with snow, record flooding, record winds, and record cold temps. November normal precipitation is 5.9inches we had 12.85inches, we broke the all time record for the wettest November ever recorded with that came record flooding on the Oregon coast, the Wilson river in Tillamook hit its highest ever flood stage even higher than 1996 flood. The Portland Metro area also saw heavy flooding. We also low temps down around 20 and the last week had highs in the 30s. November also had high winds there were gusts over 100mph on the Oregon coast while the Portland Metro area had gusts to 50Mph. The last week of November had about 1inch of snow. November was the start of a very wild winter.
    December also was a very wild month even more so wind wise than November. We had several major wind events, one causing major widespread damage. We had gusts in the Portland Metro area over 65Mph, and on the Oregon Coast gusts hit 121Mph!!! December was also about 1inch wetter than normal, most of which fell during the major windstorm of December 14th and 15th. December showed also to be a very exciting month for wild weather.
    January was a much calmer month, but still had a little excitement.
    We were a little below normal for high and low temps. We also had a couple small snow events. Those events caused some problems in the metro area, but no major problems. Our lows for January were below average with our lowest temp being 14 degrees. Other than the snow events and being a little below normal for precipitation, there were no major events in the month of January.
    February was a fairly calm month with one snow event, in late February, which caused no problems in the metro area, but up in the coast range almost 2ft of snow fell. February was an above average month temperature wise. We had a high of 61 degrees, but we also had a low of 18degrees, so it was also cooler than average in the low temp standards. There were no major events in the month of February.
    March has had a good, start, with a small snow event at the very beginning. Which cause no problems in the metro area. March so far has been way below average for high and low temps. The average for this time of year is 53 degrees. We have been around 45 degrees, for the past week. So far there have been no major weather events in the month of March.

  40. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Thanks for the update Mark.

  41. Derek-West Gresham says:

    whatever, I couldve beat you if I hadnt explained but seriously its not a race.

  42. Derek-West Gresham says:

    I’m “first” woo-hoo. Lets end this charade for good! Anyway I will be spending some time away from the blog until something happens. 🙂

  43. offroadjosh-aloha says:

    first

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