Friday Night Slowdown

Snapshot_32Don’t know if you heard about this, but today a name was chosen for the December 14th windstorm.  In the Seattle area at least it’ll be known as the Hannukah Eve storm.  The details about the contest are on the Seattle National Weather Service home page.  It’ll be interesting to see if the name sticks.  Remember the "Coho" wind?  Back in 1997 we had a similar contest to name the Gorge east wind and received something like 6000 names.  People hated the name in the end, especially those most affected by the wind on the east side of the metro area.  Apparently it will always be called the East wind or Gorge wind.  As for our weather?  Pretty slow this weekend with a building ridge overhead.  The last of the northwesterly flow is sending strongly orographic (mountain focused) rainfall into the NW part of Oregon.  That should end overnight  as the ridge continues building.   Expect a slow breakout tomorrow with plenty of moisture lingering and surface high pressure directly overhead.
A bit of a change to Sunday’s forecast possible as models are persistent in pushing a weak system north and into the Northwest Sunday afternoon.  Even our brand new 03z RPM (just out at 10:45pm) shows precipitation suddenly developing over Northwest Oregon between 2-5pm Sunday.  This is very similar to a warm season thunderstorm pattern where a disturbance moves north along the coastline.  It’s too early in the season for thunderstorms with this, and no model shows low lifted indexes or high CAPE at that point.
Westerly flow next week will give us plenty of rainfall, but mild temps.  Definitely looks like wet March weather.  No risk of snow below 3000′ with this setup.  Enjoy the weekend and try to get outdoors while it’s dry…Mark

59 Responses to Friday Night Slowdown

  1. SnowFlake says:

    chat room…

  2. SnowFlake says:

    chat room….

  3. SnowFlake says:

    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//nam/00/nam_850048066_m.shtml
    might be chilly but I doubt snow is on our horizon…. (I should ask God…I’m pretty sure He would know…) šŸ˜‰

  4. offroadjosh-aloha says:

    here ya guys go, i got a new name for my forecast!!
    Josh’s 7-day Storm Tracker Forecast
    March 6th-12th 2007
    Tuesday
    High- 62F
    Low- 41F
    Precipitation- None
    Wind- 5-10Mph SSE
    Conditions- Mostly Sunny early, then Partly Cloudy Late
    Wednesday
    High- 55F
    Low- 44F
    Precipitation- Rain .15in
    Wind- 5-10Mph SE
    Conditions- Partly Cloudy
    Thursday
    High- 50F
    Low- 41F
    Precipitation- Showers .08in
    Wind- 5-10Mph S
    Conditions- Mostly Cloudy
    Friday
    High- 53F
    Low- 43F
    Precipitation- Rain .11in
    Wind- 5-10Mph S
    Conditions- Mostly Cloudy
    Saturday
    High- 56F
    Low- 42F
    Precipitation- Rain .10in
    Wind- 5-10Mph S
    Conditions- Mostly Cloudy
    Sunday
    High- 55F
    Low- 45F
    Precipitation- Rain .20in
    Wind- 10Mph SW
    Conditions- Cloudy
    Monday
    High- 55F
    Low- 43F
    Precipitation- Rain .25in
    Wind- Light and variable
    Conditions- Cloudy

  5. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Kirk – I’ve thought you’ve been off your rocker months ago Sir. J/k
    Well that might lead to hail/t-storms if we can get any sunbreaks with convection building.
    Derek – Thanks it is fantastic to be a Blog celebrity like that to have my own posts posted and look back upon šŸ˜® Lol.
    That really was a fun storm and I hope to look forward to more of them this year with you guys n gals.
    Rob

  6. kirk says:

    Anyway the cold I saw was from the 12Z GFS at hour 264. But like always the 18Z has changed. That is why you all might think Im off my rocker. I never believed it but thaught -8 or -9 850 temps would be very cold for this time off year. To be honest I want sun and 70’s anyway.

  7. kirk says:

    Just having fun. Like I said what a waste of a good snow pattern. If it were Dec or Jan it would be snow. Still -8 or -9 850mb temps could give me snow at 1000ft. I have been riding my dirt bike the last couple days so I am ready for summer.

  8. IceKeeg - Close-in SE PDX says:

    Last year seemed particularly active for thunderstorms in the area. I hope it doesn’t lead to crushed hopes if this year is slower…I love ’em!

  9. Derek-West Gresham says:

    “Very strange storm overhead. I mean very strange cloud structure. A lot of turbulence aloft. The echo on radar is almost a bow. The lightning is really increasing. We might need to watch this one.
    Posted by: Droppin | Monday, July 03, 2006 at 09:22 PM”
    Just a little flashback to get us excited!

  10. IceKeeg - Close-in SE PDX says:

    Warmest day in four months per Hillsboro observations

  11. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Ryan with those temps a moderate convective shower could still drop snow but that would be all it would do. Because if it somehow stuck it would be gone in a minute or two. The airmass overcomes the sun angle while precip falls but thats it. I dont see snow though in case your wondering..haha
    I really want to get into thunderstorm season.

  12. Ryan (Da Couve) says:

    To get snow this late in the season we would need ULTRA arctic air. Colder than -10c at the 850mb level. Coldest I’m seeing is -8c. As far as I’m concerned our next best chance of snow is the end of October or November. I’m ready for thunderstorm season. šŸ™‚

  13. Jerry says:

    Kirk- I dont see it on the GFS or the EURO. Am I loking at the right data that your referring to? I do notice that the GFS is trending cooler in the 8-10 day range, but the EURO doesnt look to support it. I know your just hinting though.

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