The Morning Letdown

Models were partly right, but more important, partly wrong.  Surface low is sitting right near Tillamook/Seaside at 9am.  That’s farther north than expected, so milder southerly wind has arrive in the interior as far north as Clark County.  That boosted temperatures up after midnight.  I expected the low to track closer to Newport, keeping the south wind out of the metro area and northern Willamette Valley.  Looks like sticking snow is mainly above 500′ at this hour and probably won’t go any lower with slight daytime heating.  Precipitation forecast was about right with heavier precip holding off until 8am or so.  Atmosphere overhead is quite cold with the freezing level not much above 1000′, so a cold snow/rain day in the metro area.  Freeways and main roads below 500′ should remain clear but several inches of snow closer to 1000′ and up are likely…Mark

135 Responses to The Morning Letdown

  1. Brein says:

    See ya tomorrow morning old man winter!

  2. kirk says:

    Mark also gave us 63 deg on Sunday. See ya next year old man winter.

  3. timmy - scappoose says:

    down to 34.4f with a dp of 32.9

  4. Brein says:

    MARK GAVE US HOPE!!!!

  5. J.R. says:

    A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY.
    SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. SNOW LEVEL IS NEAR 1000 FEET THIS
    EVENING…BUT WILL DROP BACK TO 500 FEET TONIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND
    500 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
    ABOVE THE SNOW LEVEL…1 OR 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SHOWERS
    CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY…WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF NEW
    SNOW EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME…LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
    EXPECTED BELOW 500 FEET.
    SHOWERS WILL BEGIN DECREASING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
    THURSDAY MORNING.

  6. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    Jerry,
    Sure did not get anything much this AM & am not expecting any tomorrow either. Hmmmm, nope..no big moisture bands in my crystal ball LOL

  7. alex says:

    35.9 here in east gresham

  8. winterhawk says:

    I don’t think the snow level falls much below 1000′ tonight. With very little moisture and unimpressive thicknesses/temps aloft, I just can’t see it. Whatever we get will be during the day tomorrow. Timing is bad, but if we can manage some organized echoes, things may materialize, as short lived as it may be.

  9. Camas Mom says:

    hubby gave me DP of 31.3 (LOL). Temp is 34.1. I guess that explains the no sticking thing! LOL. hmmmmm, not looking good folks for sticking snow at 1,000 feet at this hour.

  10. offroadjosh-aloha says:

    My Forecast
    Made by-Josh Patten
    Wednesday
    High- 45F
    Low- 33F
    Precipitation- Snow Showers Early changing over to rain, mid morning .2in
    Wind- 5-10Mph SW
    Conditions- Partly Cloudy
    Thursday
    High- 44F
    Low- 32F
    Precipitation- Possible Snow Flurries in Morning, Changing over to rain .15in
    Wind- 5-10Mph SW
    Conditions-Partly Cloudy
    Friday
    High- 48F
    Low- 33F
    Precipitation- Rain .15in
    Wind- 5-10Mph SW
    Conditions- Cloudy
    Saturday
    High- 50F
    Low- 39F
    Precipitation- Rain .25in
    Wind- 5-10Mph SW
    Conditions- Cloudy
    Sunday
    High- 55F
    Low- 37F
    Precipitation- None
    Wind- 5-10Mph SE
    Conditions- Mostly Sunny
    Monday
    High- 52F
    Low- 39F
    Precipitation- Rain .10in
    Wind- 5-10Mph SE
    Conditions- Partly Cloudy
    Tuesday
    High- 52F
    Low- 39F
    Precipitation- Rain .10in
    Wind- 5-10Mph SE
    Conditions- Partly Cloudy

  11. Andrew says:

    I don’t understand how there’s going to be any snow tomorrow. The temp at the airport in Portland is way too high this late at night – 41 degrees

  12. kirk says:

    SNOOOOW GLOBE !!!!!!!

  13. Derek-West Gresham says:

    “Good to see the NWS hedging their bets for tomorrow’s activity. Should definitely increase our chances of seeing a quick spotty inch or two in the lowlands. ”
    This can only mean we wake up to snow winterhawk, good call!

  14. kirk says:

    SNOWING HARD HERE AND 34.4

  15. luvrydog says:

    35.9 here at 185th in beaverton

  16. Tornado Aly says:

    LOL, winterhawk, I was thinking the same thing! We don’t have the NWS curse this time.

  17. winterhawk says:

    Good to see the NWS hedging their bets for tomorrow’s activity. Should definitely increase our chances of seeing a quick spotty inch or two in the lowlands.

  18. Jerry says:

    IMO it gives us a better shot. But like I said on another forum. I sm not counting on anything for anyone below 1000ft except for maybe snow in thr air. Anything else is a surprise that I know is capable.

  19. ChuckyD81 says:

    All…
    New discussion out…read it and weep.

  20. Camas Mom says:

    31.3 btw

  21. Camas Mom says:

    Dang – I’m a crappy snow dancer!

  22. Jerry says:

    The flow is going to change alittle still. The coast range is defintly blocking & going to be a hassle. Models still put some precip in for tomorrow. I wouldnt count that band out developing either. Cherie in vernonia may get very lucky from this event(s). Anyone in the north coast range looks good. Whats still the big ? is can we get enough showers to make a lasting imopression?

  23. winterhawk says:

    Rainshadow is already kicking our butt. Gotta love it. Ya’ll better start doing your snowdances now. Looks like the bullseye for the best moisture along with trough axis occurs during peak daytime heating tomorrow. Ugh.

  24. Jerry says:

    36.2. What elevation are you at alex do you know?

  25. alex says:

    o im sry my temp is actually 36.4 sry sry

  26. alex says:

    temp 35.4 if we get lucky we could just see all snow showers…dp 30 degrees windchill 28-32

  27. luvrydog says:

    HAHA Derek you crack me up…in terms of last night/this morning, don’t worry, basically you and this whole blog (including I!) was wrong about this thing. I just wound up so much it couldn’t help by make that dreaded NEward jog that killed us, oh well, maybe a little tonight but I don’t expect anything major at all, maybe a dusting down here. Ah well, after tonight, I’m focusing on spring and summer thunderstorms…that’s where I have a lot to learn from you guys…well versed in winter/fall weather but because the Tstorms here aren’t as common, I’m less familiar with cape, lifted index, etc etc…
    Here’s to hoping for one last surprise tonight!

  28. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Rain/snow shower just passed through, amazing that I cant see any perfect snow. It keeps getting close but wont do it even though its freezing 1000 freeking feet up.

  29. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Nice rain and snow mix with a temp of 36.4 here now, DP 33.7.

  30. winterhawk says:

    The track of the low wasn’t the only problem. It was an overcooked turkey. Too strong, with too much mixing of the boundary layer which eliminated the downdrafts which would have transported the colder air to the lower levels during moderate/heavy precip. It looks to me like a low level jet did develop with this thing, indicated by the enhanced winds, but that’s just a guess. We would have been screwed (maybe slightly less) even if the low had passed to the south.

  31. Derek-West Gresham says:

    I will admit I was wrong today and I explained why earlier but I have to say..only in Portland could things go so wrong. That low took the worst path it could have taken that was possible. lol
    I too am watching that band Dave. I suspect NWS might be right too, but then again, we do live around the Portland area…

  32. timmy - scappoose says:

    i have a north wind of 4mph, temp down to 40f with a dp of 34. beginning to look good.

  33. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    Where is any moisture??????

  34. Doppler Dave (NE Portland) says:

    Finally, we are on the backside of the low, and the NW tip of Oregon is getting NW winds and cooler air. Portland area still WSW winds, but easing up. RAWS data at 6 PM shows temps in the North Coast range near freezing at or slightly above the 1,000 foot level. This colder air will make its way toward us in the next few hours. I am also impressed with the developing area of showers off the Washington Coast, which is taking aim at us later tonight. Don’t give up on snow yet…I think the NWS is making an accurate forecast for our area for tonight and tomorrow.

  35. alex says:

    u guys r so lucky east greashem sucks temp 38.3 still! nothing falling just cloudy…

  36. Tornado Aly says:

    Just had a great hailstorm pass through!

  37. andy (in eugene) says:

    Actually looks like we might see something down here in the south valley…I hope so, even though I know the University never closes no matter how bad the weather. I can hope though…
    SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY.
    1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY ABOVE 500 FEET…WITH POSSIBLE 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 500 FEET.
    THE SNOW WILL BE PRODUCED FROM SHOWERS WITH LOW SNOW LEVELS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA.
    THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO NEAR 500 FEET LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOORS ON WEDNESDAY.
    THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN DECREASING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
    A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.
    BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES…AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
    Delivered by WeatherBank, Inc.
    TUE FEB 27, 2007 01:48 PM PST
    AP-NY-02-27-07 1647EST

  38. Camas Mom says:

    Sorry, have to laugh. Is that going to be global warming that caused the lower temperatures in the Pacific?

  39. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    *WARNING LONG*
    WASHINGTON (AP) – Forecasters warned Tuesday that a La Nina weather pattern – the nasty flip side of El Nino – is brewing, bringing with it the threat of more hurricanes for the Atlantic.
    Officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced the official end of a brief and mild El Nino that started last year. That El Nino was credited with partially shutting down last summer’s Atlantic hurricane activity in the midst of what was supposed to be a busy season.
    “We’re seeing a shift to the La Nina, it’s clearly in the data,” NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher said. La Nina, a cooling of the mid-Pacific equatorial region, has not officially begun because it’s a process with several months with specific temperature thresholds, but the trend is obvious based on satellite and ocean measurement data, he said.
    “It certainly won’t be welcome news for those living off the coast right now,” Lautenbacher said. But he said that doesn’t mean Atlantic seaboard residents should sell their homes.
    Forecasters don’t know how strong this La Nina will be. However, it typically means more hurricanes in the Atlantic, fewer in the Pacific, less rain and more heat for the already drought-stricken South, and a milder spring and summer in the north, Lautenbacher said. The central plains of the United States tend be drier in the fall during La Ninas, while the Pacific Northwest tends to be wetter in the late fall and early winter.
    Of special concern is west Texas which is already in a long-term drought, which during a La Nina will likely get worse, Lautenbacher said.
    Historically, El Ninos and La Ninas are difficult to forecast, said National Center for Atmospheric Research senior scientist Michael Glantz, who studies how they effect humans.
    “I don’t see it as a useful forecast,” Glantz said. “Every event since they’ve been looking at El Nino … surprised scientists.”
    La Ninas tend to develop from March to June and reach peak intensity at the end of the year and into the next February, according to Vernon Kousky, NOAA’s top El Nino/La Nina expert. La Nina winters tend to be warmer than normal in the Southeast and colder than normal in the Northwest.
    Andrew Weaver, a meteorology professor at the University of Victoria in Canada, said NOAA’s forecast looks good because the signs of a brewing La Nina are apparent just below the ocean’s surface.
    “La Nina is the evil twin sister of El Nino, so it’s good or bad depending on where you live,” Weaver said. However, in general La Ninas do not have as costly effects on humans as El Ninos do, he said.
    The last lengthy La Nina, from 1998 to 2001, helped cause a serious drought in much of the West, according to NOAA drought specialist Douglas Lecomte.
    “There are winners and losers, people tend to concentrate on the losers,” Lautenbacher said.

  40. Doppler Dave (NE Portland) says:

    Looks like another night of watching for snow…

  41. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    I have never seen it snow this hard before in my life. picked up 1/4 inch in the last 7 minutes and still coming down crazy hard. Going to report this to the NWS.

  42. alex says:

    temp 38.3 dp 34 s-eastern wind at 5-10mph wind chill 32 degrees

  43. Jerry says:

    Alex- We love to see you post on the blog. Alot of neat stuff can be learned here. I hope you continue to read and post.
    Tonight may be interesting. Time for my drive home,. I will let you all know if I have anything up around the 700ft level. I am thinking I dont.

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