Another Tough Forecast

Snapshot_28Once again, a break this evening as we wait for another surge of moisture to move onshore.  Today’s heavy showers were concentrated on the west side of the metro area.  I notice Council Crest at 1000′ had 2.5", but Welches at 1400′ had nothing.  If you want snow, it doesn’t help if you have cold enough air but not enough moisture.  The airmass overhead cools in the next 24 hours, but I’m a bit concerned that we may not get enough moisture for metro area snow tomorrow.  To get snow in Portland, we need to see good steady precipitation before 10-11am.  Since it’s the last day of February, temperatures rise each afternoon with the increasing insolation (warmth from the sun).  MM5 and our model here both have a nice band of snow moving over us right at daybreak.  This is what I’m pinning hopes on for tomorrow.  I think this could be our last flirtation with snow for the season.  It looks like showers taper off tomorrow evening with drier conditions Thursday morning.  The steady precipitation that arrives Thursday afternoon does so with an increasing southerly wind, so the snow level will quickly lift up to around 2000′.
Longer range maps have some ridging and drying over us this weekend.  The best chance for dry weather will be Sunday.  It is early March so 60 degree temperatures shouldn’t be hard to hit…Mark

257 Responses to Another Tough Forecast

  1. Camas Mom says:

    Snowing here

  2. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Hmmmmm…….
    Seeing some enhancement on IR offshore streaming in from the WNW.
    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=ir&size=4
    Rob

  3. alex says:

    hey derek u might see something tomorrow morning should be a colder day(then today)…

  4. alex says:

    im not tired timmy nty

  5. IceKeeg - Beaverton says:

    March 21st, Cherie 🙂
    As much as I love the snow, I fear that if I actually moved to a snowier clime, I would grow tired/bored of it after a season. Part of the excitement here is the frustration that it doesn’t happen as often as we think we want, so when it does it is a thrill everytime. Heres to hoping that those of you moving to whiter winters don’t lose the thrill!

  6. timmy - scappoose says:

    lol, the beauty (or ugliness) of technology allows Derek and people like him to communicate via the WWW with us, and im sure he will continue to do so.

  7. offroadjosh-aloha says:

    damn, i really now relize how much i am gonna miss/hate portland winters. gonna miss the rain big time. helena montana only gets 11in a year. we got that+ in nov. lol

  8. alex says:

    o sorry to hear that derek will all miss you…

  9. timmy - scappoose says:

    moderate snow falling here.

  10. timmy - scappoose says:

    Alex, no one told you that you had to stay up. get some sleep, go to school, and go to the mountain this weekend. also Derek is going like BYU or something so thats why he wont be in portland.

  11. offroadjosh-aloha says:

    Guys, this is gonna be my last snow fall here in PDX also… but then again like Derek i will be in a place with lots of snow. haha. can’t wait till this summer wiand next nter in Montana, hope to have good snowy winters

  12. Tornado Aly says:

    Derek is moving

  13. alex says:

    theres always next winter derek…

  14. alex says:

    going to bed this is dumb,why should i stay up all night looking out the window like ive never seen snow before(not that i have these past 6 hours),temp 33 degrees the temp is cold enough why couldnt the moisture just come here stupid rainshadows

  15. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Doubt it Joelo, I will never see snow in the PDX area again. Really, I am serious.

  16. timmy - scappoose says:

    Cherie quit hogging my snow!

  17. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    Thought Spring was April 21??? Oh well….if March comes in like a lion….then out like a lamb!

  18. alex says:

    33 degrees and cloudy

  19. alex says:

    i dont see nothing falling

  20. winterhawk says:

    1 hr 28 minutes until meteorological spring begins!!!

  21. luvrydog says:

    very light rain/snow mix in beaverton off of 185th

  22. alex says:

    theirs nothing coming down! wtf!!!

  23. JoeLo says:

    Derek, you might be surprised in the morning!

  24. Derek-West Gresham says:

    zippo still, I expect nothing at all tonight.

  25. alex says:

    35.3 looks as if when snow falls it might stick in the last 10-15mins of it temp will go down 1-3 degrees

  26. Jerry says:

    Whats mark hinting @….

  27. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    Only snowing moderately here now.
    Looks like places south of Everett are about to get nailed now. Looking at webcams from that area, looks like 8-10″ at least.
    Tyler

  28. Dajana says:

    Its snowing where you guys live, here it didnt snow at all, only this mornning! am i missing something?

  29. -100F says:

    Yes Jerry, the whole westside gets screwed in rainshadows. I honestly would not be surprised if we don’t get a single flake of snow overnight. Guess it is time to look forward towards spring.

  30. timmy says:

    i think most place will freeze tonight, air aloft seems cooler. down to 18 at gov. camp, 15 at santiam pass. neither are under clear skies either.
    down to 34 here, with a trace on the ground at 50′

  31. kirk says:

    32 deg …..5″ and counting. SWEEET !!

  32. Jerry says:

    Dont forget tigard!!

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