Friday Night Quickie

Snapshot_26A short post tonight since I got behind in the weather center for several reasons.  There is lots of cold air to the north, but I don’t see any map that shows a sudden plunge of arctic air into the Northwest.  Just more of the cold and wet weather.  I took most of the snowflakes out of the 7 Day forecast because of a persistent backing off of cold 850mb temps as we head into early March.  At one point it was supposed to be -7 deg. Monday and Tuesday and now GFS doesn’t show that, pushing that cold air back to later in the week.  A lot of rain and lots of mountain snow this weekend.  Enjoy some popcorn, movies, and fire up the fireplace or woodstove this weekend…Mark

382 Responses to Friday Night Quickie

  1. Weatherer says:

    New Post!

  2. winterhawk says:

    I agree that there are some details that are being missed by the models with this thing. Location and track I believe are being handled pretty well, but pressures are certainly lower than charted. The low is intensifying at the moment and is probably around 993-994 or so according to buoy reports. The GFS also insists a lull will continue for several hours. It’s a guess as to how this thing will play out exactly. It’s going to fun to watch though. Lots of possibilities.

  3. wxman says:

    Clinton at NWS just said could be one inch at valley floor and the next band of precipitation would be coming in in the next few hours later tonight. Models don’t always handle these small scale features well. I think most everyone will get a snow cover by morning when all is said and done.

  4. IceKeeg - Beaverton says:

    Latest update from NWS:
    Eyes now shifting to the main front which is fast approaching the
    coast line. This front will push another round of showers inland
    later this evening. Primary concern is the clearing that has occurred
    over the interior behind the first band of showers. Temperatures have
    cooled to the middle and upper 30s. When the next band
    arrives…temperatures will be a bit lower…and snow may survive to
    lower elevations. Other factor is how much cooling will occur due to
    the sustained precipitation and cool air drag associated with the
    precipitation. This may contribute to cooling the air mass enough to
    maintain snow to lower elevations. Either way…have adjusted the
    snow levels to 500 feet for tonight. Suspect will have lots of
    reports of snow-rain mixture later tonight. Will maintain all
    advisories. But no advisories for Willamette Valley as suspect any
    accumulations of snow will be less than 1 inch.

  5. Doppler Dave (NE Portland) says:

    Just read the NWS from Clinton. Great write-up! I think his assessment is very accurate.
    That low is in the perfect position for snow in Portland. It doesn’t matter that it is late February…the air mass is cold enough to support snow, and without a southerly wind component, it should easiliy snow down to the valley floor. How much is the question at this point.

  6. Jesse says:

    Wow alex I sure hope you have fun building a snowman tomorrow-and being wrong! lol. A good weather predictor always looks at the satellite before they look at a calendar.

  7. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Models dont handle these situations well at all!! This thing looks great and should move in by morning if not much earlier.

  8. alex-east gresham says:

    35.5 degrees here,my prediction: rain/snow little or no acculmaltion,comon people this is late febuary i doubt will get even a dusting.

  9. alex-east gresham says:

    35.5 degrees here,my prediction: rain/snow little or no acculmaltion,comon people this is late febuary i doubt will get even a dusting.

  10. timmy - scappoose says:

    i dont see why the timing looks bad, there are already echoes just offshore from the next band.

  11. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Models didnt show a push of moisture this evening like this either…

  12. timmy - scappoose says:

    pilot, that will not be the issue, the air coming in should be cold enough, it already showed that in this last band of showers. now under the night, it should be cold enough, its just a matter of moisture and where it hits. even if radiational cooling were an issue, temps would moderate with the showers if they were warmer.

  13. -100F says:

    Beaverton at 34.5F now. Moisture timing looks bad, that is what I am worried about.

  14. JoeLO says:

    Steve, I would take 1/4 of Feb. 1995 event!

  15. winterhawk says:

    It’s going to be a close call for the snow freaks. Models continue to insist the action holds off until mid morning tomorrow. Low looks better organized than the models depict. Should be an overachiever. It’s just something we’ll have to wait and see on. Things may come together nicely for somebody and drop a few inches.

  16. B1900 Pilot says:

    The Question of the Hour:
    Will the cloud cover coming in raise our temps above freezing?
    Discuss.

  17. little "D" (dallas) says:

    I just don’t see that band holding off ’till tomorrow morning. I’ts too close and has moved too fast to not make it to the valley within the next few hours. I’m glad you P-Towners got some snowfall, I felt a little greedy getting it all down here, last night. 😉

  18. Jerry says:

    The only thing that is kinda fuzzy is the models arnt showing a huge dump from that plume.

  19. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    Ya Steve that band looks very impressive, I saved the IR photo of it. Could be nice and white in the morning for all.
    My temp in Hazel Dell is 36.3.
    Tyler

  20. Derek-West Gresham says:

    hahaha I had a feeling this would be the case! Forecast success!! Waiting for the big one though. Keep posting steve!

  21. JoeLO says:

    34 in LO. Snowed hard sticking on deck, cars, etc. Thanks for the post Steve P.

  22. Camas Mom says:

    Snowing for about 20 minutes now – bark dust is all white and beginning to accumulate. I have a temp of 36.3, but my experience is it’s warm where it’s located so likely a bit cooler.
    Big band coming in – hopefully we’ll get an inch out of this! Can’t wait to see what tomorrow holds.

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