Back at Work

Snapshot_17It’s a new week and apparently a new weather pattern.  First the warmth leftover from this weekend.  TImberline Lodge at 6000′ made it to 57 today, and as you can see to the right, some spots approached the 70 degree mark up there.  The airmass overhead cools the next few days, which loosens the inversion here in the valleys.   Too bad it isn’t March 5th…this same pattern would get us to or above 70 degrees just 4 weeks from now!  Winter will be losing it’s grip over the next few weeks.  But as I’ve mentioned lately, we could still get an arctic blast within the next 2 weeks (not likely looking at 10+ day maps) or snow within the next 4 weeks here in the lowest elevations.
Ridge gets beaten down the next few days by several waves moving up from the southwest.  These are weak systems compared to our stormy start to winter back in November/December.  In fact as I peruse the 5-15 day maps, nothing really sticks out as very stormy, snowy, or cold.  My gut feeling is that this "splitty" or ridgey pattern will continue, with rain at times, but no huge totals…Mark

29 Responses to Back at Work

  1. jake says:

    gotta love the latest IGES, once again it moves up the snow, only 7 days out now AND increased moisture and lower temps then what was previously shown

  2. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Rod Hill has one too. πŸ™‚ I am discusted at tax-and-gouge me! aka kulungouski. How could he threaten to do that?

  3. Rick Meyer says:

    One more thing about the meteogram- if you look at the temp- no 30 degree temp and snow- it has a cold bias and throws snow into the extended often. It would be nice to see colder temps than what it is currently showing.

  4. Sarah in West Linn says:

    I see. Thanks, Rick!

  5. jacob BPA says:

    Actually Milwaukie
    I Read the Farmers Almanac and has a Good track record Its funny Because in our Long Range Winter forecast Meeting in Sept and Oct we always have a copy at the table and Read it out loud
    I bet Clinton even has one at his Desk
    LOL

  6. Rick Meyer says:

    Sarah, Mark formats them from two separate pages into one so he has to state that. It is a computer generated forecast based on the models only, the OOZ and 12Z runs of the GFS. No met deciphers and or interprets them. Hopefully that helps out.

  7. Sarah in West Linn says:

    Thanks for that story, Christiana. Whether you believe in human-caused global warming or not, there’s no doubt the topic’s a political football.
    Now, I wonder if someone could explain these meteograms to me. The latest one (thanks, Snowman) calls for significant snow at the end of February. I’ve noticed that reports say they are “formatted by Mark Nelsen,” but Mark himself said on this blog that he doesn’t see any cooling or snow in the next four weeks.
    I’m confused: Who does Mark prepare these meteograms for, and why doesn’t he hold any stock in what they say?

  8. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    George taylor has made national news tonight, is on the drudge report.
    http://drudgereport.com/

  9. Christiana--Beaverton says:

    KGW.COM Story
    Global warming debate spurs Ore. title tiff
    06:09 PM PST on Tuesday, February 6, 2007
    By VINCE PATTON, kgw.com
    In the face of evidence agreed upon by hundreds of climate scientists, George Taylor holds firm. He does not believe human activities are the main cause of global climate change.
    Taylor also holds a unique title: State Climatologist.
    Hundreds of scientists last Friday issued the strongest warning yet on global warming saying humans are “very likely” the cause.
    β€œMost of the climate changes we have seen up until now have been a result of natural variations,” Taylor asserts.
    Taylor has held the title of “state climatologist” since 1991 when the legislature created a state climate office at OSU The university created the job title, not the state.
    His opinions conflict not only with many other scientists, but with the state of Oregon’s policies.
    So the governor wants to take that title from Taylor and make it a position that he would appoint.
    In an exclusive interview with KGW-TV, Governor Ted Kulongoski confirmed he wants to take that title from Taylor. The governor said Taylor’s contradictions interfere with the state’s stated goals to reduce greenhouse gases, the accepted cause of global warming in the eyes of a vast majority of scientists.
    β€œHe is Oregon State University’s climatologist. He is not the state of Oregon’s climatologist,” Kulongoski said.
    Taylor declined to comment on the proposal other than to say he was a “bit shocked” by the news. He recently engaged in a debate at O.M.S.I. and repeated his doubts about accepted science.
    In an interview he told KGW, “There are a lot of people saying the bulk of the warming of the last 50 years is due to human activities and I don’t believe that’s true.” He believes natural cycles explain most of the changes the earth has seen.
    A bill will be introduced in Salem soon on the matter.
    Sen. Brad Avakian, (D) Washington County, is sponsoring the bill. He said global warming is so important to state policy it’s important to have a climatologist as a consultant to the governor. He denied this is targeted personally at Taylor. “Absolutely not,” Avakian said, “I’ve never met Mr. Taylor and if he’s got opinions I hope he comes to the hearing and testifies.”
    Kulongoski said the state needs a consistent message on reducing greenhouse gases to combat climate change.
    The Governor says, “I just think there has to be somebody that says, ‘this is the state position on this.'”
    (KGW Reporter Vince Patton contributed to this report)

  10. Milwaukie says:

    Jacob-
    You laugh about the farmers almanac, but if it is so off, why do they bother with it? Shows snow the last two weeks of February and the first week of March…with the last week of February stated as heavy snow… WWe can always hope and it wasnt that far off for the last snow we just got.

  11. Nof...out in the stix..N of Mac says:

    Nevermind Jacob, i see what all the grief is about…its on Drudge now….good lord. I thought science was the study of theories to prove or disprove them. It seems as though now its more a study of which way the wind is blowing..go against it and you will be shot. Can we have some real science without an agenda please?? How bout some snow?? That’ll be great! And in 3 months i’ll take some nice warm weather!

  12. offroadjosh-aloha says:

    i agree with taylor!!

  13. RossbyWv says:

    Good for Mr Taylor…..The Weather Channel inquisitors will be after him for being a “Denier”.

  14. jacob BPA says:

    The heaviest snow will fall in mid- to late February, with other snowfalls in mid-November, early to mid-December, and early to mid-January
    this from the Farmers Almanac
    This is What BPA use LOLOLOL

  15. Derek-West Gresham says:

    I definitely agree, watch that late February period.

  16. Nof...out in the stix..N of Mac says:

    Jacob, what did Mr. Taylor say? is there an article or link to something new out there? Hey it snowed last year in March…i’m no throwing in the towel till then…i would like to place an order for a few feet of freshies in the mountains…pronto..

  17. offroadjosh-aloha says:

    How many people use soundings and skew-t chart p charts for forecasting????

  18. jacob BPA says:

    Good Job Mr Taylor Going against the odds of Global Warming
    I Respect George alot and his Wife who is not a bad met herself And has Been with BPA Off and on
    Feb looks to turn Cool towards the End SNOW ????????

  19. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    Meteogram has shown the snow for the 17th for last 4-5 days. Has dropped the total down, but is insistent on it. Only time will tell in lala land.

  20. IceKeeg - Close-in SE PDX says:

    A couple people mentioned in the last post that a few runs in a row were pointing toward snow possibilities on the 17th. I don’t know what run it is, but that last meteogram that snowman posted also indicates it. Obviously it’s still 10+ days out, so liklihood is small, just didn’t know how many runs in a row this particular feature has held.

  21. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    No need for me to look into LALA land. LALA land is right here..
    Ended up with about 6″ of snow, just got done with the pleasure of shoveling it off the driveway. They haven’t even been through the neighborhood to plow my street yet. But, with the snow slowing down they should be able to get through here this evening.
    Here’s some pictures..




  22. Derek-West Gresham says:

    SOI has been running good and positive for about a week, PNA is going negative, NAO is neutral now..etc. Watch the last half of February for a return to interesting weather. πŸ™‚

  23. kirk says:

    OOOOOOOOOOOO LA LA!!!!!!!!!!

  24. ME says:

    Gotta love LALA land!!!!!

  25. Brian says:

    Those metrograms are not very useful. I have seen it call for snow for Seattle in September.

  26. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    Looks to be a snowy day here.. Expecting 4-8″ total by later this evening.. Temps are running at about 7F right now, which results in a ratio at about 20 to 1.
    Current have light to moderate snow, should be an interesting day..

  27. offroadjosh-aloha says:

    damn, winter is over. can’t wait till next year….
    MY FIRST WINTER IN MONTANA !!!!!!!!!!!!!

  28. Derek Hodges says:

    Thanxs for the update, wish there was more to say than this is a “blah…” sort of pattern. πŸ™‚

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