Another Quiet Night

Snapshot_8Another busy night in the weather center…well, if that includes critical tasks like remaking the labels in the file cabinet, cleaning up area behind the wall, throwing out old weather maps etc…  Oh, the weather itself is REALLY slow.  Nice little inversion has developed trapping pollutants in the lowest 2000′ of the atmosphere.  One change this evening is that a weak easterly flow has developed through the Gorge.  It’s 2 millibars PDX-DLS at 10pm, if it exceeds 4 millibars that should be enough to get rid of most of the muck across the metro area by midday or so tomorrow.   00z MM5 brings precip inland with a dying system Thursday, our RPM model and 00z NAM does not.  I’m very thankful that it’s not 25-30 degrees the next 2 days.  No one cares too much if we get light rain Thursday, UNLESS it’s 32 degrees or under.
The long range pattern continues to show strong ridging over or near the West Coast through the first few days of February at least.  If it was 4 weeks from now, I’d say the chance for a (another) cold snap this season is over.  BUT, as we found out last February, we can still get an arctic blast through the 3rd week of next month.  It does appear that January 2007 is going to go down as a dry and cool month…Mark

66 Responses to Another Quiet Night

  1. 32snowwish silverton says:

    For some reason Weatherunderground on the history section shows the sky conditions only to 1997.
    Almanac.com’s shows there’s back to the 1940s. Used to be 1973 was the limit. Does anybody know any sites that do show sky conditions 1997 and back?

  2. Lyn-Canby says:

    Here in Canby it was 30 leaving at 8:00 am going to Gresham where when I arrived at 8:45 was 40…….we had a heavy fog that kept the temps down to 34 until 1:00 now 44.

  3. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Wow, never seen fog this thick before. Visibility is about 30-40 feet. It is heavily freezing as well. Was supposed to get to 43 today, but instead hit a high of 34 and back down to 31 now. Very interesting/strong inversion layer here.

  4. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Oh I get it. Well anyway I am just comparing this to other things I have seen. SOI is a good indicator and for the last few days its been very negative, we have had a big ridge, its supposed to go very positive this week. There are others but lets see if we can get another storm out of this.

  5. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Yeah Sean I know, thats why I mention this 8 months or something in advance. 🙂 I don’t know exactly much, but just watching the beginning stages come up. The 1999-2000 la nina, which actually I think lasted three years, brought ONE real snow so it can backfire too. Oh well, I think I will see some next year. 😉

  6. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    I think next to Winter, Spring is the next biggest weather season out here.. Now that things are looking colder this should help in fueling some violent thunderstorms this spring season. With last year I think it was a normal year, as far as severe weather reports go. At least this year, I will have a much better opportunity to do some chasing. As last year, with moving, buying a house, etc. Didn’t get a chance to really do any chasing..
    One thing Derek, yes the indexes may change to a cool weather pattern for the PNW. Remember that they don’t just happen overnight either.. I would say this winter season so far for you guys has been at least eventful to say the least.. There was a streak of several where winter was basically an extension of fall and spring..

  7. ChuckyD81 says:

    All…
    There were virga streaks below some of the alto/cirrocumulus earlier…likely snow!
    Just wondering if anyone saw it and noticed.

  8. AKB-tigard says:

    the snow is starting to really pick up here already about 2 inches on the ground. the warmth felt good i am almose looking forward to warm weather instead of chilly days with some showers. either i want warm or very cold with possible snow

  9. winterhawk says:

    Yes… It’s snowing moderately at my house. 53.1 degrees.
    As for next winter… Each season affects the next IMO. Hard to know what will occur next winter if we’re in the dark about Spring/Summer/Fall.

  10. Derek-West Gresham says:

    Yeah why not, doesnt hurt… I have no idea about summer.

  11. ChuckyD81 says:

    All…
    Just wondering if anyone had noticed that it is currently snowing across much of the Portland metro area!!!
    I am, just in case you’re wondering, being absolutely serious!

  12. winterhawk says:

    Already talking about next winter? Wow. That’s a few days out.
    My question is what is Spring/Summer looking like?

  13. Derek-West Gresham says:

    My feel the extended will need to be watched but not because of the GFS. 🙂 It looks like the indicies will return in our favor BY say Feb 10th. This will give us one last shot at snow, lets hope things look good then. Oh yeah, things also look la ninaish to me and the experts by next winter, plus PDO is going down again. Next winter may be a big winner in the PNW, I want to stress MAY. I have noticed from past years when the west gets a big shot of cold BYU, where I will be, usually sees a ton of snow and then drops below zero. Every cold spell follows that so things definitely look nice if we can get that la nina going…and to behave. 😉

  14. Jerry says:

    As much as I like the snow, I will say the warmer temps are helping my heating bill. Last month it was insane!

  15. Sean (Lebanon, Indiana) says:

    With such a dominating ridge over the west coast, it’s notorious for being difficult to break these down. So, saying that there won’t be much of a change over the next 5-7 days of weather is pretty safe bet.
    Also remember, as we get towards the middle of February that we approach that time in which Mark usually will say “Arctic Cold and Snow” become less of a possibility.
    It looks like the Siberian Arctic Express will be paying me a visit next week.
    CHOO-CHOO!

  16. luvrydog says:

    Hey, how’s everyone doin?
    Winterhawk, you are EXACTLY right on this. The GFS is extremly confused right now…within the past 3 days I’ve seen anywhere from a warm southerly pineapple express flow to a cold, snowy and wintery pattern to a dry ridge over us forever. Whatever the pattern change will be, do not take the models at face value right now, ESPECIALLY beyond 5-7 days. This last bout with winter weather, the models were all in fairly good agreement over a 7 day period…I do not see that this time, if anything they agree to take the cold air east of rockies as Sean has pointed out. Personally, if I was any of you keeping your hopes up for snow…take a break, come back to the blog in 3 days and then see if anything is showing in the next 7 days…that’s what I’ve been doing…it’s actually relaxing as compared to the model riding mode we were in alllll week 2 weeks ago.

  17. winterhawk says:

    The far extended GFS is baffled in the extended. The pattern in two weeks will look nothing like what is currently being advertised.

  18. Jerry says:

    Sam- Ask that question in a week lol. We have alot more model runs to go before anything is certain. And even then, last weeks snow storm is a perfect example on how things change overnight.
    The models are all over the place. There is some indicies supporting snow and cold in the west, but will it happen? IMO no one should start calling anything until we have more model agreement. And if that time arrises snow total forecast are PURE speculation until we are 48hours or less from the event.

  19. kirk says:

    I am not going to even start to get excited yet. But I like the way La La Land looks from hour 276 out. Talk about a flip flop, last time I looked it had us in a warm kind of SW flow. Now it puts us into a sweet NNW flow. Not some weak one but it has some power to it so maybe it will be a strong enough feature not to flip back again. Looks at least good enough to get some good snow at the ski areas. Which would be nice because the snow sucks up there right now.

  20. snowman says:

    so, is it time to get excited yet,, or,,, is it too soon?

  21. Sean (Indiana) says:

    Well, only topping out at 27 today.. Have another shot at some snow coming in overnight and into tomorrow morning.. Now up to 5.3″ of snowfall for the total this winter.. But still way behind the normal of 13.50″
    Arctic express will be paying a visit here in the Midwest here over the next week or so..

  22. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Hmm, two runs in a row with lots of snow now. Might be good news?
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/mrfiges.htm

  23. jacob BPA says:

    http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007012412!!/
    Tyler actually this is a better Set up it reallys digs into N Canada then into the NW this has the change to a N flow on the 30th

  24. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    Looking at the latest GFS, MRF and ECMWF, it takes the cold air into the east, but doesn’t bring it as far west as it did previously. Also, the latest GFS brings the upper level low off the coast NE off Washington instead of dropping it south toward California, like yesterdays runs.
    Fog finally burned off here about 2 hours ago, right now 44.3, after a frosty/icy 28 this morning.
    Tyler

  25. sam d smith says:

    Looks like fair weather is here for a spell.

  26. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    For as warm as it has been here lately (upper 30’s to low 40’s) i am surprised that most of my snow has not melted yet. I guess the cold nights freeze the snow enough so that it is harder to melt off. Currently 30 degrees here with some freezing fog. Took this picture this morning on my way to class of the local creek going through campus still frozen with about 3-4 inches still on the ground here.

  27. Paul says:

    Portland does get occasional smog/fog
    combos, but luckily the gorge tends
    to kick it out in the metro area.
    Farther south in the Willamette Valley,
    it can get rather mucky though. I think
    the worst was during January of 1987.
    London’s deadly fog was caused by
    coal soot though wasn’t it?
    Salem-south it can be woodsmoke
    among other particulates that accumulate
    during valley inversions.

  28. jacob BPA says:

    Temps wise it has done well this winter and precip has been about 30% to high will hold off anymore thoughts on this till Friday

  29. 32snowwish silverton says:

    Warning long. Does Portland ever get Smog fog combo? And whats the worst it’s ever got. Can it get pea soupers like London in the old days? Does everybody in the virtual blog room have to breath it up like me? Btw I like to talk a lot so if I ever start to get off topic let me know so I won’t be one of thoes awful spammer thingamabobs. This is the first place I have ever chatted and its weird and cool to chat online to far away places

  30. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Ya, IGES showed over a foot for the la la land a few days ago and killed it. It has now brought back over 2 feet, but of course it won’t happen. IGES over shoots moisture and tends to give slightly cooler temps. However, it is good at noticing trends on a possible pattern change. Almost looks like it wants to put us into a zonal flow.

  31. jacob BPA says:

    Wow
    Is all I can say right now Dont get your hope up but 2’+ of snow wow MOdels are coming around IGES has gone crazy

  32. Sean (Indiana) says:

    Give thanks to the +PNA for that..

  33. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    26 degrees here this morning with dense freezing fog. Been a VERY boring weather week so far, models keep killing everything they want to bring in.

  34. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    TTD-DLS gradient continues to strengthen. Very impressive in short time overnight
    Now at a moderate-strong -8.8mb
    Went to bed last nite and 34, got up at 4:30am 41. Just had gust of 34 mph and 43 degrees WC 28.6

  35. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    TTD-DLS gradient continues to strengthen.
    Now at a moderate-strong -8.1mb
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KTTD+KDLS

  36. Sean (Indiana) says:

    I will say that the models are being consistant with a large dome of arctic air dropping into the Lower 48. Yes, it is going to spread back west with time, but remember the number one thing with arctic blasts that drop east of the rockies. It is quite unusual for the cold air to get up and over the rockies. Though, I think there will be some of the colder air that will probably drain into the columbia basin (par for the course). Thus getting an offshore flow, bringing chillier temps to west of the cascades.
    Pretty much seasonal temps for us here (34/19).. Highs just below freezing today (30) and dropping down to around (20) tonight. A jab of arctic air moving through tomorrow, looking for temps around 23-25 and lows dropping down to around 10-12. Picked up a half inch of snow last night, got about 3″ still on the ground.

  37. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    TTD-DLS gradient continues to strengthen.
    Now at a moderate -6.4mb
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KTTD+KDLS

  38. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Ok Lol the 850mb model has changed already….
    Who knows it could return to how it previous was later, then warm up again or push the cold air further east.
    We shall find out in due time.
    East wind picking up with increasing offshore flow this early morning.
    TTD-DLS gradient now at -5.6mb
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KTTD+KDLS
    Feels very nice outside with cleaner, crisper air.
    Rob

  39. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Hey I know this is in la-la land.
    http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_850_loop.html
    Watch the loop carefully.
    Watch from day 9-10.
    You can clearly see core of cold air shifts SW towards the PNW.
    850mb -40c is incredible.
    This dome of cold air is absolutely gigantic.
    IMO this would be similar to last February, possibly colder, possibly just some E winds and nothing much else.
    I don’t know if this is a trend and don’t expect this to actually occur, but this is worth watching when things are so boring, yet so pleasant outside.
    We will have to see how this plays out in 4-5 days and exactly how the models have a handle on this.
    Until then just speculating at this point.
    Any thoughts?
    Rob

  40. kirk says:

    To bad the meteograms never come true. It shows snow the 5th-8th of Feb. By the time you all read this they will probably be different. Oh well…..

  41. Derek-West Gresham says:

    00z GFS does get very close to dumping arctic air in here. I wonder what future runs will do, will watch it closely but with pessimism.

  42. Christiana-Beaverton says:

    Thanks for the update Mark. Hopefully the “muck” gets cleaned out.

  43. Jesse says:

    Anyway, down to 32 already at my house. Obviously going to be a much colder night than last night, I only got down to 35.9 last night.

  44. Jesse says:

    Woohoo! First one to comment! First time for me.

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