Back to Work

Portlandsnow6years_3A good break from the usual grind for the last 4 days…unfortunately it would have been a fun & wild grind for at least 2 of those days (Monday and Tuesday).  So obviously we need a 6-10" snowfall in the next 5 weeks or so to make me feel better.  Of course it would be nice if it was forecast too…

No such thing this weekend with a cold front crossing the metro area right now.  Interesting that it’s having no net effect on our temperatures in the metro area.  The snow level has slipped from around 5,000′ this afternoon down to less than 2,000′ within the next few hours.  If the warm air had worked down to the surface we would have been around 50 today (Salem/Eugene were close to that).  But the cool air has been trapped in the metro area all day though.  Now that the "cooler" air above has arrived with the cold front, our current cool temperatures are about what you would expect with that arriving airmass…so no significant change with frontal passage.

Building ridge overhead the next few days will attempt to shut off the precipitation.  I’m a bit concerned that bad model preformance the last few days will continue through the next 4-6 days.  Basically I’m afraid the ridge could be dirty, allowing moisture through at times.  No strong offshore/onshore flow the next 3 days also means it’ll be hard to get rid of low level moisture, clouds, and fog.  So we can all take a break for the weekend (as I will)…and don’t worry about the weather.

I’ve included an updated snow chart for the last 6 winters here in the metro area.  Looks like it’s the 2nd snowiest of the decade…amazing what 3.5" can do!  Mark

102 Responses to Back to Work

  1. jacob BPA says:

    To far out also Just fun to look at also
    No model consistency as of yet LALALA

  2. jacob BPA says:

    oops Meant DIDNT say this was going to happen

  3. josh "from Everett" says:

    To UW student. You can’t always just look at the maps, sometimes you have to use real world experience. Plus, the plotted numbers aren’t lying here:
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=ksea&submit.x=9&submit.y=13&submit=submit

  4. jacob BPA says:

    Sorry Did say this was going to happen !!
    Models have flipped and flop on this now for the last few days guess we will see with this weeks model run
    AND GO DUCKS
    http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/10d/gfsx_300_10d.html

  5. UW Meteorolgy Student says:

    Jacob BPA,
    I have viewed every model from today 12Z on, and I do not see anything that looks good for cold and/or snow antime in the next 16 days. Every model keeps the cold air way east..not even dropping into eastern Montana but points east.
    What may I ask are you seeing? I agree with Derek. I do see the propensity for the models to not have a good handle on the placement of the upper level features, however, this one isn’t even close!
    Robert

  6. UW Meteorology Student says:

    Bruce,
    I have viewed every model from today 12Z on, and I do not see anything that looks good for cold and/or snow antime in the next 16 days. Every model keeps the cold air way east..not even dropping into eastern Montana but points east.
    What may I ask are you seeing? I agree with Derek. I do see the propensity for the models to not have a good handle on the placement of the upper level features, however, this one isn’t even close!
    Robert

  7. jacob BPA says:

    I see a good set up on this Like I said earlier its to far out But Like that Some models Bring in the Cold air or at least Modified.

  8. Derek-West Gresham says:

    I dont really see a good set up for extreme cold or snow. Not right now anyway, besides that it probably will only look worse from here on out. I know a good set up when I see one.
    Chucky I will be getting a degree in atmospheric science as you know, and I plan to use that to get a job in TV meteorology. I could end up somewhere else but thats what I would like to do.

  9. andy (in eugene) says:

    I know its still ten days out, but that low is as deep and cold as I have seen in some time…
    http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfsx/10d/gfsx_850_10d.html

  10. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    Some models show cold air next week, first hitting the central/eastern US, then moving toward us, similar to last February, but maybe colder. Of course, this is still 7-10 days out.
    Tyler

  11. Christiana--Beaverton says:

    Andrew: Thanks for the article. My hubby is involved in writing an environmental plank for a minor political party and this will come in very handy.–Chris

  12. ChuckyD81 says:

    Derek…
    What is it you plan on doing with your Atmospheric Science degree once you get it? Do you want to work in the private firm, govt, research…something else?
    Just curious

  13. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    Wow, it’s like spring outside. Partly sunny skies and 51 degrees. Today is the first day with out snow-cover for me. There are still piles where it has been shoveled, but none where it was untouched. Yesterday I still had about 1/2″ in the shaded areas.
    Time to wash the truck, does that means it’s going to rain?
    Tyler

  14. garron near washingtin square says:

    Hi all,
    I’ve got an igloo that almost survived the heatwave. now the kids are playing in it and destroying it. it once stood 5′ tall, and we got 5 kids and 1 adult in there once it was built. I’ve got to get caught up on sleep now that the impending cold wave is gone…hope all is looking whiter or warmer by the time I get back to the blog thing….Thanks all for the updates!!!! HAGD!!!

  15. wendy-silverlake says:

    This is not scientific reasoning at all, but I am going to be on a plane the second week of February and I hate to fly. So that means we will have feet of snow and very cold nasty weather. Thats just the way my luck goes. Will make landing and take-offs even worse. So good news to all you snow and cold weather lovers, I have put my curse on things, and it will be a spectacular snow storm.

  16. sam says:

    It looks like we are going to be Dry as well. which will be kinda nice. almost shorts weather. looking forward to see what this cold air really does

  17. jacob BPA says:

    but for the now between now and feb 1 st looks mid 40s to 50 and then Maybe the cold air This looks Familiar LOL

  18. jacob BPA says:

    Interesting that the models take the bulk of the air to the Eastside
    mmmm
    Keeps us on the Backside of the Arctic air mmmm
    Thoughts are that this is big meaning the Hudson Low is very impressive
    Thinking is we will see some of this
    remember this the gorge FACTOR
    Still think the 12z over did the H into BC But thats to be seen later on model runs
    At this time we think this has a 70% shot at affecting the NW

  19. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    er *as*

  20. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Interesting article on how global warming may have been oversold. In other words that some scientists may have pushed it past what it actually is and may not be ass big of a problem as they want it to be.
    http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4487421.html

  21. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    I agree with that.
    Fun to speculate though as that’s all I was doing.
    I hope no one thought by my post that I was in some kind of dreamy la-la land scenario Lol.

  22. Steve D says:

    As quickly as models bring in cold air, they take it away. 12z GFS run this AM wants to keep the cold air out and bring in a wet W-SW flow to PNW in early Feb. Until model runs have have about 4-5 runs showing a similar pattern change, there’s unfortunately not much there. C’mon…bring that cold air back! 🙂

  23. jacob BPA says:

    Agreed on the IGES but its a indicator of sorts
    Also getting ready for our meeting
    but WOW on the pattern
    this would make our last event look small
    so until I can Get more imfo Its a wait and see
    Here is what i do know is that MJO is very Favorable
    and as we have seen this winter is Exciting weather then dry and calm for 4-7 days then back to Exciting

  24. sam says:

    Rob there I see this as well and will be fun to track as have the other one this winter. what are your thoughts though. if we get this air mass we will probably get the same protection from the jet stream off the coast we got on this last shot of cold air. what do you think or thoughts on this? is there any precip in the forcast down the raod? maybe around when this might roll in. thoughts, comments

  25. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Hey everyone. I haven’t been able to look at any models, any maps or do much.
    Today I’m trying to make up for it.
    This model shows the largest, coldest arctic airmass of the season.
    http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_850_loop.html
    It appears to even dwarf last February’s arctic airmass that blasted SWD from Hudson’s Bay towards SE British Columbia (Remember Mark’s post? “Models are suddenly disturbingly cold”).
    That is one mega arctic air mass.
    See how it expands and gets even colder at day 7.
    I also notice high pressure just offshore of British Columbia all the way down the Oregon coast which could be quite favorable for N flow drawing in the arctic air.
    We need to watch this cold airmass carefully.
    Will have to see if models trend that colder air more W-SWD over time.
    If 4-5 days go by and the model is still showing the airmass this cold then IMO we have the potential for a MAJOR arctic outbreak.
    Should be interesting seeing how the models handle this one.
    Any thoughts?
    Rob

  26. Jen-West Linn says:

    Jacob,
    The chat is great for you guys, but for those of us who don’t have time to join in, could you please elaborate on the changes for Friday and your thoughts on it?
    Thanks!

  27. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Correct, as i have said before. IGES is not accurate with precip totals. However, it has been good so far this year at noticing pattern changes from a week or so out, so something to watch. IGES was good at seeing the last cold spell a good week and a half out.

  28. offroadjosh-aloha says:

    Andrew, the GFS-IGES is very inaccurate, it is almost never right.

  29. Jerry says:

    This friday’s system is looking interesting as far as the path the low wants to take. It looks like it could go south of portland. Landfall looks like the OR/CA border. This could be a PERFECT snow set-up to the valley floor if we have the right ingredents in place. I think this is why some of the models show the 850 temps crashing with fridays system. Something that will need to be watched.

  30. jacob BPA says:

    http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/6e/gfsx_300_6e.html
    Pattern change coming and it may be a cold one we will have too see

  31. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Typically, even though GFS overshoots moisture a TON, .10 of moisture is fairly close to an inch depending on temps.

  32. timmy - scappoose says:

    but i guess you could be right, im not sure what the precip water-snow eqaution is. im sure it varies on whether it is wet snow or not though.

  33. timmy - scappoose says:

    andrew, the precip is in .7 inches not 7.0 inches. and it is in water moisture, so it isnt saying that we would get an inch of snow, and .7″ of ice pellets, it would be the snow/ice water precip equivelent

  34. andy (in eugene) says:

    wow, that would be one for the record books…….i cant remember which model it was that i was looking at but it showed the cold air mass coming back in over the northwest even further, after the passing of the storm…….we can only dream….

  35. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Forgot to post link haha.
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/mrfiges.htm

  36. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Check out IGES in la la land. Brings in over a foot of snow for portland and then 7 inches of ice pelets. Crazy if it happened, however to far out at this point.

  37. jacop BPA says:

    Well Things are getting intreresting
    We have been following the poss changes in the chat

  38. Brian says:

    I should edit that to say that Ed Berry said the ridge would retrograde to 140-150W during the 2-3 week time period. Of course there is a big difference between 140 and 150, but the trend is there.

  39. Rick Meyer says:

    I noticed it (00Z) about a half an hour ago and it looked so crazy, I didn’t even want to mention it. Way too far out, but wow, that would be something, wouldn’t it?

  40. Brian says:

    La La Land, yes, but this is consisten with what Joe Bastardi and Ed Berry have been saying. JoeB said the West would get cold, but not for another 10 days (he said that Friday), and Ed Berry said it would be during the 2-3 week time period from Friday when he made his post. http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/

  41. Jerry says:

    Whoops heres the link that Supports my last post.

  42. Jerry says:

    IF this low where to come in south of portland like the January 1st 2004 track then indeed we could see some HUGE snowfall. This is so far out why is it worth talking about, except the ensembles are starting to look good. And the MJO is trending in the PNW favor. The GFS has portland in 2+ feet of snow. Wouldn’t that be a dream?

  43. Steve D says:

    Just saw it Andrew. That would be INCREDIBLE if that came close to panning out. The last 2 model runs (18z and now 00z) have indicated a pattern change bringing the big Hudson Low west and south. The 00z shows it clashing with a big low off the West Coast. IDEAL to say the least. The pattern actually begins taking shape around January 31st at hour 228. Definitely something to watch!! Still la-la land…but really fun to see on the model.

  44. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    holy crap, look at the ooz GFS

  45. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Just got a nice little burst of freezing rain here, 31 degrees with maybe 1/10 or so of an inch of freezing rain on the ground.

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