Back to Work

Portlandsnow6years_3A good break from the usual grind for the last 4 days…unfortunately it would have been a fun & wild grind for at least 2 of those days (Monday and Tuesday).  So obviously we need a 6-10" snowfall in the next 5 weeks or so to make me feel better.  Of course it would be nice if it was forecast too…

No such thing this weekend with a cold front crossing the metro area right now.  Interesting that it’s having no net effect on our temperatures in the metro area.  The snow level has slipped from around 5,000′ this afternoon down to less than 2,000′ within the next few hours.  If the warm air had worked down to the surface we would have been around 50 today (Salem/Eugene were close to that).  But the cool air has been trapped in the metro area all day though.  Now that the "cooler" air above has arrived with the cold front, our current cool temperatures are about what you would expect with that arriving airmass…so no significant change with frontal passage.

Building ridge overhead the next few days will attempt to shut off the precipitation.  I’m a bit concerned that bad model preformance the last few days will continue through the next 4-6 days.  Basically I’m afraid the ridge could be dirty, allowing moisture through at times.  No strong offshore/onshore flow the next 3 days also means it’ll be hard to get rid of low level moisture, clouds, and fog.  So we can all take a break for the weekend (as I will)…and don’t worry about the weather.

I’ve included an updated snow chart for the last 6 winters here in the metro area.  Looks like it’s the 2nd snowiest of the decade…amazing what 3.5" can do!  Mark

102 Responses to Back to Work

  1. Camas Mom says:

    Respectfully*

  2. Camas Mom says:

    Repectfully, remember to be respectful, especially when prefacing your comment with “respectfully.”

  3. Gregg-Troutdale says:

    More computer problems Cherie

  4. jacob BPA says:

    Good night
    Remember this forum is to have fun and discuss weather and models. Forecasting past 10 days even 5 is somewhat Crazy to do
    🙂

  5. Cherie in Vernonia says:

    cannot chat on northwestwx.com
    Can type…but not *send*
    things are still not right

  6. UW Meteorolgy Student says:

    Josh,
    Respectfully, the meteogram is not used in weather FORECASTING. Yes, intuition and experience is, and I can tell you that any more than suggesting that here is a “possibility” that the western ridge builds far enough west is wishful thinking. Too many atmospheric variables to describe. Also, note the 850MB temps noted on your meteogram. Rarely in your example is the temp at 850MB less than 0’C. In order to even have a chance for snow, you need ATLEAST -6’C at 850MB.
    Robert

  7. andy (in eugene) says:

    that “meteogram” posted by josh is ridiculous….might be one of the most perfect setups 16 degrees and heavy snow in seattle??? that would be a beautiful thing.

  8. JoeLO says:

    Even though the models are a bit off at this time, there is at least some hope with all that cold air building north of the border.

  9. andy (in eugene) says:

    as a current duck myself, this season has been alot of fun….although the upcoming road trip as well as the rest of the season looks to be tough…..i’m pretty confident about a conference champ. GO DUCKS!

  10. ChuckyD81 says:

    Josh…
    True, one should never look at only one source of guidance. However, where do you think those numbers in the link you posted come from?
    They come from the GFS, which in another format are those graphical maps!

  11. timmy - scappoose says:

    how about them DUCKS? that cal game was great! washington and WSU are gonna be tough though.

  12. JoeLO says:

    Jacob, You are smart about the weather and also have a great taste in teams! Go Ducks!

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