Snow & Ice Arrives

Too bad I can’t be back in Portland to enjoy the little snow storm (with some freezing rain/ice pellets thrown in).  Looks like the moisture is arriving nicely this morning, just as models forecast.  I still like the 1-2" snow forecast I mentioned yesterday, maybe 3" with enough moisture moving through.  Some areas are starting with the freezing rain/ice pellets, but that should then changeover to snow as the heavier precip arrives, evaporating into the dry air, cooling it down to freezing or below.  So don’t panic if you start with no snow, it may change to snow if you’re in the metro area.  It’s going to be very tough to get above 32 degrees today across much of the city with cloud cover and still a light easterly drift out of the Gorge…so enjoy…Mark.

131 Responses to Snow & Ice Arrives

  1. Davemeister - NE 20th & Burnside says:

    That is an interesting feature coming from the NW. Looks like a L. It looks like the same L that just gave us the snow, but the flow is now switching from SW to NW? Am I way off here or could it head for us again tonight and give us a little more?

  2. -100F says:

    Darn, 34F in Beaverton. Don’t see any melting though. Should drop below freezing again.

  3. Davemeister - NE 20th & Burnside says:

    I must say I figured this one perfectly. I’m not a pro either. Don’t really like “models” so I take many things into consideration. All I use is Radar, Satelite, Temps in the gorge and conditions in my front yard.
    I’ve lived here my whole life (40 years) and i’ve never know a “forcaster” that can call it correctly(although Mark gets my vote for being most accurate and I really appreciated his input while away). Thats what I like about the pacific nw. The vast Pacific can throw all kinds of things at us as well as the gulf of Alaska and as we just saw, very quickly overnight when everyone is asleep. Was great to hear all the folks and how surprised they were. Made for great local television as well. We have a lot going for us here, but many things must come into play in order to have an event like this.
    Still have about 5″ on the ground and 29 degrees. Usually a very busy NE 20th Ave is very quiet with packed snow that is very slick. Temp has been pretty much consistant all day. Winds have also been consistant at ESE 10-15. Perfect in my opinion for this snow sticking around for a while; i think a couple days with slow melting. Things are just really frozen from the last week.
    It’s nice to see everyone having to slow down. Too bad it takes a snow storm to do it and even then, there were a lot of wacko’s that felt they needed to be driving today. Thanks for everyones input. The last couples days were a blast!
    -Dave

  4. luvrydog says:

    My first post since this thing started. Talking with Justin last night, I think he was right on the snow totals. We both called for a definite snow and according the MM5 could recieve 1-3 inches. If the NAM verified, the upper amounts would occur. I have to say the MM5-NAM was right on this time with the moisture.
    In terms of a bust. There were some busted forecasts. A couple promets out there forecasted a possible mix for portland, MAYBE at most an inch.
    If that were to occur we would not have the mess we have out there right now or had this morning…If they had looked closer at the models and actually made up a REAL forecast and not just went through the motions “ooohhhh, possibly some snow tomorrow morning but not amounting to much, nothing to worry about” then more people would have been prepared, Beaverton school district probably wouldn’t have flubbed up like they did and there would not have been half as many wrecks and abandoned vehicles out there. I call that a BUST by a few so called Pro Mets on tv last night at 11.
    I think Mark although correct in calling for snow even underestimated the totals, I think he was being conservative but then again, with the dry air over us and the NAM usually overestimating the moisture, I would have forecasted the same as Mark this time.
    I’m so ecstatic, my puppy LOVES the snow…first time in it! Finally the west side gets in on some action! We can all finally smile and say this was a GREAT week of weather for everyone! (Makes it even better when your center shuts down at work, hehehehe)
    Upcoming events:
    Anyone notice there is some mositure showing up for Sat again? I would bet this would be rain if it makes it because of the moderation we will undergo with clear skies the next few days.
    As for “Rod’s moisture” for tomorrow night, don’t see it happening, nothing to point me in the direction that it will.
    Trends: For awhile there we were looking at some pretty boring MAJOR ridging in the models RIGHT over the top of Portland, models have begun to trend against that, which would be GREAT…
    As for the Omega in the future, the GFS has been playing with this idea, bringing it in and taking it out for the past week…probably typical GFS games…guess we’ll see in two weeks, lol.
    Takin the puppy out to play in the snow, hope you are all safe and enjoying the weather!!! WOOHOO!!! Portland got a widespread snow! YES!

  5. Derek-West Gresham- says:

    That little swirl of NW washington will need to be watched for later.

  6. ChuckyD81 says:

    Wonder if anyone saw my question…It appears not, so for everyone’s viewing convenience I’ll REpost it!
    For those who say the Pro’s busted…
    What do you classify as a bust? I’m not arguing against your point…simply seeking clarification. Yesterday the professionals, including TV & NWS meteorologists, were not calling for 3-5″. So is it a bust according to lead time b/c updated forecasts weren’t issued until this morning…or is it strictly by the final numbers?
    Not stirring things up, just asking how you define a given forecast “busted.”

  7. RossbyWv says:

    Also, Omega blocks tend to persist for several days or more.

  8. salemphil says:

    hey anyone, is the low right off the oregon coast or is it the swirl/circle off the N Wash coast
    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=west&type=vis&size=1

  9. Camas Mom says:

    Sorry but that is a LAME excuse for the City of Portland. Tax dollars more than pay for reliable mets – not that they should nail it every time, but this was forecasted on the models and by at least 2 TV mets, there is simply no excuse. Just another way for hard earned dollars to go down the drain….ugh!

  10. JohnD says:

    26′ light snow and gusty east winds still up at the gateway to our cold air source in the Columbia Gorge–also known as Troutdale! You know the next few days–not to mention weeks–could be very interesting too. When it is all said and done this could be one of those winters that we all rememeber and talk about for a long time. Even if it shut off tomorrow it would still go down as “significant” in my book.

  11. snodaze says:

    lYN,
    An omega block is a “block” in other words, no storm systems approaching from the west… They come out of the north…
    The “omega” part is that the “block” is in the shape of the Greek Omega sign… What this usualy means in our area is we have a blocking pattern setup in the Pacific and there is an area of low pressure around Vanc. Island…
    The sweetest setup for snow in the NW… (except for today… That was pretty good too)

  12. Lyn-Canby says:

    Kptv had the City of Portland officals on and they blamed thier Mets saying they told them only light dry snow blowing around….nothing to worry about….hummmm

  13. Promet says:

    Is it a bust when someone calls for snow and it doesn’t happen? It’s pretty easy to forecast something when absolutely nothing is riding on it.

  14. Lyn-Canby says:

    Steve explain
    P.S. As if today is not enough — check out the 12Z GFS for hour 360!
    WOW!!!! OMEGA BLOCK!!!!!! BURRRRR!!!
    SP

  15. Steve Pierce - Vancouver says:

    P.S. As if today is not enough — check out the 12Z GFS for hour 360!
    WOW!!!! OMEGA BLOCK!!!!!! BURRRRR!!!
    SP

  16. k5mitch NE PDX 72nd & Fremont says:

    more gorge pics…




  17. Tornady Aly--Vancouver says:

    Since I discovered this blog a couple of weeks ago, I come here to get my forecasts rather than listen to the mets on TV. You guys do a great job, and give reasoning behind your forecasts that actually make sense. Great job, and keep it up. Wish I could learn to decifer the models so I can begin my own forecasting…

  18. Jason in NW Vancouver says:

    I haven’t heard Rod’s update today. I heard him yesterday at 11:00PM talking about something that might happen after this storm. I think it was Wednesday Evening. I am not really sure on the details, etc. Perhaps someone is more of an expert can post what Rod is seeing on his computers, etc. Maybe Rod sees something we don’t see. I don’t know.
    I currently have light snow going through my area after moderate snowfall earlier.

  19. Promet says:

    There is no blob. However…Rod Hill is probably now the “best” forecaster in Portland. You see blob we respect you.

  20. -100F says:

    Still light snow.

  21. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    Well some backward development from this system, now snowing hard again at my house, the hardest I’ve seen it snow all morning.
    Temp is edging up ever so slowly, now 28.1.
    Tyler

  22. -100F says:

    Hmmm. Moderate snow shower in Beaverton. I can see this one on radar. Just popped up out of nowhere.

  23. Camas Mom says:

    Snow just stopped. I’d say we’re at least 5″ – but it’s hard to tell since we still had some on the ground. Looks like about 8″ on my potted plants which have been in the direct sun the past few days. Will measure when we get out to play later.
    Great storm! I hope you’re wrong -100, another couple inches will make Kirk’s little bunny hill really sweet (already is, but that would cinch the deal)

  24. aleta says:

    I have 4″ here in west gresham..hasn’t stopped snowing yet.

  25. salemphil says:

    3-6 for a windstorm….isn’t that a blizzard LOL

  26. Promet says:

    I’m just going to forecast 3-6 inches everytime snow looks remotely possible. That way I’ll always hit it. I’ll do the same for windstorms.

  27. Weatherer says:

    Off the top of my head, I think Justin, Steve Pierce, Dopplar Dave, Jesse, Derek, Jacob, and Rob (his revised forecast at least) were all right on with their forecasts. I’m sure there were others who were spot on too but that’s all I can think of right now. So kudos to you guys! Did a WAY better job than the mets around town.

  28. ChuckyD81 says:

    I see I’m getting the cold shoulder to the right/wrong question!
    Tis ok…I don’t like to admit being wrong either!
    However, I thought the “right” wing would be coming out of the woodworks!
    All in good fun!

  29. IceKeeg - Beaverton says:

    3 inches – Central Beav

  30. Tyler in Vancouver says:

    3″ of snow at my house in Vancouver, and now winding down. Temp is 27.9. Wind is still calm and DP is 25. Looks like maybe some sunbreaks this afternoon. This could be bad in terms of icing for tomorrow morning.
    Tyler

  31. Kristan - Tigard says:

    Wow, what a mess out there. It’s a beautiful mess, but be careful everyone. Hall Blvd. near 99W is packed snow…and as of about a half hour ago, still no sand trucks or anything. Drive safe!

  32. Ben says:

    -100 where are you in Bvtn??

  33. muxpux *Longview* says:

    haha
    that video on KGW is INSANE!!!
    up here in longview, we only got a bit more than a dusting on top of the snow (about an inch) we already had. nothing impressive. im hoping that low nails us. i noticed also on the WV loop, what looked like a northerly moving surge of moisture near the center (just to the west) of the Low. good sign?
    up here weve had off and on moderate snow showers, with nowhere near the intensity of PDX. in between showers we are hanging on to stray snowflakes/flurries. in fact right now is real wierd. big flakes, but sparse.
    id be amazed if we pick up any additional accumulation over an inch. unless we get some “training” or a large shower to slowly roll over.
    oh, and chains /or traction tires REQ’d on portland freeways. im glad i played hookie.

  34. jacob BPA says:

    looking at the Development off shore right now off Tillamook

  35. Camas Mom says:

    Sorry Jacob – didn’t mean to step on toes, I took too long to post my comment. 🙂 It’s still snowing hard here and we must be close to 5 inches, but haven’t gotten out there to do the actual measurement.
    Model nailed this one, seems to me. We’ll all be talking about how the models actually got it right the January of 2007 – and how it could happen again! lol

  36. alex says:

    the sucky part about this is right after this we are going in to a dry week and highs in the 40s and it will melt quickly…unless….

  37. alex says:

    *ground*

  38. Weatherer says:

    Holy crap. KGW has amazing video of cars sliding all over the place downtown. CRAZY!

  39. Camas Mom says:

    I can see the back edge and the showers coming in after. Is that the end of the precip?

  40. Camas Mom says:

    Still dumping here! Loving it!

  41. butch says:

    Close to 3″ here in NE PDX now and still falling.

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