Much Drier Forecast

Elongated surface low appears to be just about right over the Coastline at 7:30pm…kind of hard to find on the satellite picture, but the buoy just off of Astoria has gusty north wind now, so it’s on the land side of that.

As the low moves inland we should all (Coast to Central Oregon) see a good burst of west or northwest wind by daylight at the latest, more likely around midnight in the metro area.  Then temps drop quickly with a much cooler airmass filling in behind.  Showers last until just after daybreak and then that should be it.  Most likely the metro area will be mainly dry after 8am according to our model here and the UW-MM5.  Just leftover showers over the west slopes of the Cascades after that.  Cross-sections and other model info seem to keep sticking snow above 1,500′ late tonight and in the morning, so I doubt anyone in the metro area will see snow.

GFS & ECMWF are definitely heading towards splitting/ridging in the 7-10 day period.  Models (especially GFS) tend to try and send weak systems through the ridge too easily, so I’ve taken rain out of the forecast.  Looks like late Friday/Saturday morning and New Year’s Day may be close, but I’m betting we’ll stay dry.  Lots of east wind and cool temperatures the next week as well, especially since we lock in cool air at the surface that moves in tomorrow east of the Cascades…Mark

168 Responses to Much Drier Forecast

  1. Bryan **Wilsonville** says:

    The 00z shows northery flow with alot of moisture “SNOW” around the 5th of january. And alot of it.

  2. Derek-West Gresham- says:

    Well most signs are pointing toward a very ugly first half of January. But after that most seem to be headed toward something helpful, or at least more normal so that will be our next chance of snow. Until then, forget about it.

  3. Derek-West Gresham- says:

    34.9 out here. BYU next year, then will transfer.

  4. Bryan **Wilsonville** says:

    Thanks boring larry, that was it

  5. Boring Larry says:

    Hey Derek…i lived in Moab for a bit…there’s things, besides the weather, in Utah that will blow your mind…it’s one of the most magical areas on the face of the planet…enjoy yuor time spent there…..

  6. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    What school is it?

  7. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    32.9 here

  8. Derek-West Gresham- says:

    37.6 out here, clouds are slowing my drop. Anyway I know I will enjoy it. By brother is going to still be there next year and I remember him telling me sometime how there was a foot of new snow on the Yes, it will be a lot of fun. I will keep you guys updated when I go.

  9. Jeff says:

    32 in the Hazel Dell area of Vancouver.

  10. -100F says:

    wow 33F in Beaverton

  11. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    Remember camping once at Provo Lake. Was VERY windy there. Will be fun for you! :0)

  12. Derek-West Gresham- says:

    I am going to Provo, Utah for a year. I will enjoy it.

  13. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    Where you gonna go to school Derek?

  14. Boring Larry says:

    oops…i mean *Bryan: try* this…

  15. offroadjosh-aloha-currently Helena Montana says:

    Hey Y’all!! i am here in Helena Montana, looking at houses. weather is cold we currently have ZR and about an inch of snow, the passes were nasty. we arn’t going to get above freezing for awhile. tonight its gonna hit about 15. and we a supposed to get 2-3in of snow.

  16. Boring Larry says:

    Brian: tyr this link for canada…lots of good stuff there…

  17. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    wow, already down to 35.3 here, going to be a cold night. Wish this air was here yesterday.

  18. Derek-West Gresham- says:

    Well at least when I go to school next year in Utah I will probably be at least 5000ft elevation, in a good position for lake effect snow, and backed up against the mountains for oragraphic lift. hmmm 😉 I can’t wait!

  19. Derek-West Gresham- says:

    AO index projected to possibly go negative in the long run, could allow arctic air in if it eventually did.

  20. Bryan **Wilsonville** says:

    Does anyone have a link to see the very cold temps in the yukon?

  21. josh from Everett, WA says:

    I waited up til 1 AM for the snow to start here last night but it just didn’t get quite cold enough, although Bellevue/Issaquah saw about 3 inches.
    I woke up this morning to some light flurries then it snowed pretty good for an hour or so piling up about an inch and half….not bad I guess.

  22. AKB-tigard says:

    wow this blog has really died in the last few hours.

  23. Mat says:

    And I meant for the transition event when I said snow btw. Not even ZR I don’t think.

  24. Mat says:

    The air in the basin will cool through the week. Not cold enough for snow I’m afraid.
    I also see that cold up north. Not gonna get my hopes up though, don’t want to be dissapointed again. Maybe we should all ignore it then. Then maybe it will happen then. Just a thought.

  25. AKB-tigard says:

    thats really wierd.after the sunset my temp. fell to 38.4 quickly. now its gone all the way back up to 40.3. i wonder why that happened? maybe it has to do with the wind or something?

  26. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    I think freezing fog is a possibility for fog prone areas tonight.

  27. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    The east side/Columbia Basin/eastern Gorge will begin to cool off once the high pressure becomes firmly entrenched, and it will do so.

  28. AKB-tigard says:

    too bad the east side is so warm becuase over the next few days the east wind should be blowing pretty well. but the wind probably wont cool us down more than a few degrees. if only it was cold over there we could get a transition event! o well

  29. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    dang, thats a lot of snow lol.

  30. Kristan - Tigard says:

    My aunt lives in Denver and works in radio. She said that she left work last Wednesday when it started and hasn’t been back since – just had to put the radio station on repeat for about a week! She said that she had about 25 inches just in her front yard. I was so jealous!

  31. Derek-West Gresham- says:
    Radar in Washington. Nice C-zone going on up there. Appears to be becoming more N-S oriented, maybe it sneaks into portland overnight. 😉 lol

  32. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    Looks like Denver, Co is in for another major blizzard. Expecting 35-40mph with over a foot of snow. They have just been getting hammered.

  33. AtmosphericWrath -Southeast Portland- says:

    Thanks Andrew, and thank you Tracy for the kind words.
    I am definitely not in the caliber of Mark, or probably even Derek.
    All of this is just an awesome learning experience.
    Maybe one day I will be able to accurately interpret the models to be able to post forecasts with good overall consistency.
    Oh btw I wanted to note that this afternoon my humidity dropped from 80% to 53% in about 8 minutes due to N winds kicking in.
    Also I did have a brief period of what appeared to be pea sized hail or graupel.

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