Much Drier Forecast

December 26, 2006

Elongated surface low appears to be just about right over the Coastline at 7:30pm…kind of hard to find on the satellite picture, but the buoy just off of Astoria has gusty north wind now, so it’s on the land side of that.

As the low moves inland we should all (Coast to Central Oregon) see a good burst of west or northwest wind by daylight at the latest, more likely around midnight in the metro area.  Then temps drop quickly with a much cooler airmass filling in behind.  Showers last until just after daybreak and then that should be it.  Most likely the metro area will be mainly dry after 8am according to our model here and the UW-MM5.  Just leftover showers over the west slopes of the Cascades after that.  Cross-sections and other model info seem to keep sticking snow above 1,500′ late tonight and in the morning, so I doubt anyone in the metro area will see snow.

GFS & ECMWF are definitely heading towards splitting/ridging in the 7-10 day period.  Models (especially GFS) tend to try and send weak systems through the ridge too easily, so I’ve taken rain out of the forecast.  Looks like late Friday/Saturday morning and New Year’s Day may be close, but I’m betting we’ll stay dry.  Lots of east wind and cool temperatures the next week as well, especially since we lock in cool air at the surface that moves in tomorrow east of the Cascades…Mark