Christmas Night Rain

Back to work this evening, plenty of weather on the maps for us to look at, but it generally comes down to more wet & cool weather for regular folks.  Only the weather geeks find much interesting within the next week or so…

2 things I learned while on a very relaxing vacation at home:
1.  Get a generator if you live in the woods and don’t want to shuttle frozen foods across town everytime the power goes out or bucket water from the hot tub to flush the toilets.
2.  Chutes & Ladder is the MOST frustrating game I’ve played with my little kids, it never ends!  Candyland is boring but more satisfying in the end with a good conclusion.

Wavy frontal band pushing back north over us this evening after staying to the south most of the day.   Radar looks impressive but amounts are pretty small.  Looks like a wave just offshore moves inland tonight to our south.  A much stronger wave our around 138W/40N is forecast to more or less move inland right over NW Oregon tomorrow evening/night.  Not a wind issue really, except easterly wind should pick up over the metro area in the next 12 hours.  No source of cold or dry air to the east, so no chance for freezing rain or snow even in the west end of the Gorge.  Maybe above 500-1000′ east end of the Gorge in Hood River Valley and above The Dalles tonight/tomorrow AM.  After the low passes overhead, and by the way it’s a funny-looking elongated thing, it’s a quick switch to a pretty strong NW wind behind it later tomorrow night and Wednesday morning.  This caught my eye earlier today for a possible lower-than-expected snow event Wednesday morning, but 00z models (including MM5-UW) don’t impress me.  I doubt we’ll see sticking snow below 1,500′.  Colder air settles in Wednesday evening, but by then it’s dry.  So I threw a snowflake into the 7 Day forecast, but that was to indicate some snow in the air, not sticking in the metro area.
High pressure develops eastside Thursday and Friday and one thing I notice is the airmass really dries out.  Dewpoints drop pretty dramatically, especially later Thursday and Friday with east wind, so a cooldown even with a lot of sunshine.
Disagreement on next system, either later Friday or Saturday is most likely.  Could be a Gorge snow or freezing rain producer, but not in the metro area.
I don’t see a sign of arctic air on any weathermap, which is a bit rare (especially with GFS) for the coldest time of year.  Off/on systems and some "splittiness" at times though…Mark

198 Responses to Christmas Night Rain

  1. w.w.m. says:

    where are you guys finding reporting stations outside the US? are you punching in cities on the NWS site or I was wrongda (wrong) about the wind earlier, I didn’t notice it blowing but it is at a fairly good clip.

  2. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    16 NM West of Port Orford, OR
    29.39 Steady

  3. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA

  4. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    275NM West of Coos Bay OR
    29.78 & rising rapidly

  5. josh from Everett, WA says:

    Here’s what KOMO4 is saying. Might work out for me…:) 🙂
    As this system passes overnight, it will draw in cooler air behind it, and it’ll be a race for some spots whether the cooler air will get here with moisture still around to perhaps bring a little rain/snow mix or even plain old snow showers tonight.
    The best and, really, only spot that would see accumulating snow is over along the Hood Canal area and along Highway 101 where it curves around the eastern Olympics (basically, the same places that got a little snow Saturday morning) as cold air tends to get trapped there. Could see up to 1″ of snow tonight. For the rest of us, just a rain/snow mix at best, with perhaps a dusting above 500 feet. Lows will drop into the low-mid 30s.
    A cool day on tap for Wednesday, with a few lingering rain showers through midday (once the sun comes up, all areas should warm into the rain category). Most areas dry out for the afternoon, save for one spot –those in the Puget Sound Convergence Zone.
    Things get a little interesting there as the zone could be active enough to briefly drag down the snow levels to the surface in its usual Snohomish/N. King County areas. We’ll keep an eye on it, but it’s an isolated event. Like we said, everywhere else should be dry by then. Highs generally will warm to the low 40s.

  6. Jerry says:

    Is anyone checking buoy reports?

  7. Rob -Southeast Portland- says:
    Low is really wrapping up, still intensifying.
    Landfall over extreme southern Oregon/northern California.
    Also it’s quite a bit stronger than models were indicating.

  8. Brian @ E. Vancouver says:

    -100F, I’m just a model-reader (and not a good one) so I’m not offering any gut feelings, just what the NAM and Mark’s ETA show me. Between 4:00 & 7:00 p.m. local, 850mb temps, winds, and thickness are all there for a quick blast; IF there were any moisture to speak of, which at that time doesn’t look like there’ll be any. That’s based on column-integrated cloud water model. Even between now and then I just don’t see freezing level getting down much below 1500 ft. before the air below 900mb dries out.
    Now, THIS is why I like looking in on this blog is so the experienced guys can chime in here and tell my why I’m full of crap (as it were). j/k 😉

  9. Bryan **Wilsonville** says:

    Has Jacob or Steve P said anything today about snow setup for this one?

  10. Bryan **Wilsonville** says:

    Has Jacob or Steve P said anything today about snow setup for this one?

  11. Rob -Southeast Portland- says:

    Yeah I did. I got yours and Cherie’s…

  12. Antipex - SE Gresham says:

    Yes I did, Cherie – and I hope to see you there soon! 🙂 Also, did you get my E-Mail, Rob?

  13. Andrew---Ellensburg, Wa and Portrland, Or says:

    34 at I-84 in cascade locks. They should for sure be getting some snow there tonight.

  14. timmy - scappoose says:

    but its 37 at the dalles, the cold air isnt there.

  15. Cherie_in_Vernonia says:

    Thank you :0) Hope you got one from me???

  16. Rob -Southeast Portland- says:

    E wind has really picked up here.
    Temp has dropped from 46.8 to 43.2 in 35 minutes.

  17. Antipex - SE Gresham says:

    Already did, Cherie 🙂

  18. -100F says:

    NAM 00Z shows a 996mb low coming in just south of PDX. How do the 850mb temps look with that model?

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