Christmas Night Rain

December 25, 2006

Back to work this evening, plenty of weather on the maps for us to look at, but it generally comes down to more wet & cool weather for regular folks.  Only the weather geeks find much interesting within the next week or so…

2 things I learned while on a very relaxing vacation at home:
1.  Get a generator if you live in the woods and don’t want to shuttle frozen foods across town everytime the power goes out or bucket water from the hot tub to flush the toilets.
2.  Chutes & Ladder is the MOST frustrating game I’ve played with my little kids, it never ends!  Candyland is boring but more satisfying in the end with a good conclusion.

Wavy frontal band pushing back north over us this evening after staying to the south most of the day.   Radar looks impressive but amounts are pretty small.  Looks like a wave just offshore moves inland tonight to our south.  A much stronger wave our around 138W/40N is forecast to more or less move inland right over NW Oregon tomorrow evening/night.  Not a wind issue really, except easterly wind should pick up over the metro area in the next 12 hours.  No source of cold or dry air to the east, so no chance for freezing rain or snow even in the west end of the Gorge.  Maybe above 500-1000′ east end of the Gorge in Hood River Valley and above The Dalles tonight/tomorrow AM.  After the low passes overhead, and by the way it’s a funny-looking elongated thing, it’s a quick switch to a pretty strong NW wind behind it later tomorrow night and Wednesday morning.  This caught my eye earlier today for a possible lower-than-expected snow event Wednesday morning, but 00z models (including MM5-UW) don’t impress me.  I doubt we’ll see sticking snow below 1,500′.  Colder air settles in Wednesday evening, but by then it’s dry.  So I threw a snowflake into the 7 Day forecast, but that was to indicate some snow in the air, not sticking in the metro area.
High pressure develops eastside Thursday and Friday and one thing I notice is the airmass really dries out.  Dewpoints drop pretty dramatically, especially later Thursday and Friday with east wind, so a cooldown even with a lot of sunshine.
Disagreement on next system, either later Friday or Saturday is most likely.  Could be a Gorge snow or freezing rain producer, but not in the metro area.
I don’t see a sign of arctic air on any weathermap, which is a bit rare (especially with GFS) for the coldest time of year.  Off/on systems and some "splittiness" at times though…Mark