Okay here are my thoughts on wind tomorrow night:
1. Models all seem to like a landfall somewhere between C. Vancouver Island and NW Washington Coastline.
2. Taking the GFS/NAM at face value, I would figure maybe gusts to 50-55 mph at PDX and in metro area…hardly a major windstorm, but a nice little winter windstorm.
But once again the MM5-GFS is very insistent on a strong bent-back occlusion swinging through in the late evening or midnight. The new 00z version even seems to develop a 2nd surface low that skirts around the south side of the Olympics, almost like a "dumbelling" around the initial low. That really tightens the gradient. I counted 15 mb PDX-OLM and 23 EUG-OLM. This is major windstorm material, especially considering the 1000-2000′ wind is forecast to be 60-70 kts. IF that wind surfaces gusts to 70 mph are likely from PDX north. I say PDX north because of the tightest gradient up north. That’s why I leaned heavily on that during the 10pm weathercast.
For those of you on the coast, the southwest wind that comes surging in behind the occlusion is amazing. MM5 once again shows 60kts sustained surface wind slamming the coastline. Wow…One other reason is that the whole surface low/bent-back occlusion is moving at 50 mph, which is great for a quick hit of strong wind.
On the negative side, I am worried a bit by the weak surface wind forecast on the same MM5. Only 20-30kts in the valley even though it’s far stronger just a couple thousand feet above. Hopefully the model doesn’t know something I don’t. I’d hate to see gusts to only 45 mph after such a big anticipation of the event.
As for snow, I pretty much covered that at 10:45. Not real impressed with precip on MM5 for Saturday or Sunday. Earlier runs had a surface low moving up to mouth of the Columbia, but 00z models a bit sketchy on that. I feel it’s going to be a pretty quiet weather weekend with snow showers mainly in the hills on Saturday only. My high temps at PDX may even be 2-4 degrees too cold if we get much sunshine.
Back to mild rain next week..Mark
Looking ahead a bit, look at all that cold moisture diving in behind the storm. Although a lot of the energy will be diving south, still looks like fun.
Kind of a bummer when the storm goes too far north, then the best post frontal dynamics quickly dive too far south. Such injustice!!!
Looking at the 12Z GFS MM5…the bent back occlusion is much less impressive, with pressure gradient best over Washington.
If this model run is correct, then I doubt that PDX will break 50mph in gusts. Eugene probably will not exceed 40mph. So…I guess the HWW jinx is on…it isn’t going to verify…AGAIN.
Puget Sound is in trouble however, with 60-70mph gusts there.
The GFS MM5 however shows a little low approaching S. Oregon coast…..is that a potential snow situation?…maybe
In keeping with the advice giving trend (Earlier comments about powerlines), I would like to put in my two cents.
Please be aware that this will be a quick hitting system with decent amount of rain accompanying it. Rainfall amounts won’t be like our early November rainfall totals, however some rivers are at or near bankfull already and with current saturated soils rain runoff will be high making flooding a very realistic concern.
DO NOT try and cross water covered roads of any sort.
Might also be wise to not go romping through the woods this afternoon and evening! :)
Yeah Rob…this will be interesting with the rainfall before the storm. I can’t remember if 1995 was wet before the storm or not…
Seems a little conservative for the N Valley?
oko be back in a few hours…
…A POWERFUL WINDSTORM TO ARRIVE LATE TODAY..
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TODAY.
WINDS ON COAST WILL GUST 55 TO 65 MPH TODAY…BUT THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARRIVE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TIMES BELOW ARE FORECASTS FOR THE STRONGEST DAMAGING SOUTH WINDS.
FIRST WIND LISTED IS THE FORECAST SUSTAINED WIND…FOLLOWED BY
FORECASTED/ANTICIPATED GUSTS (G).
LOCATION TIMES OF STRONGEST WINDS DURING
START PEAK END PEAK PERIOD
WASHINGTON COAST..
COMMUNITIES 4PM 8PM-MID 2AM 35-45 MPH G70-80 MPH
BEACHES/HEADLANDS 4PM 8PM-MID 2AM 45-60 MPH G85-100 MPH
NORTH OREGON COAST..
COMMUNITIES 4PM 7PM-MID 2AM 35-45 MPH G65-80 MPH
BEACHES/HEADLANDS 4PM 7PM-MID 2AM 45-60 MPH G85-100 MPH
CENTRAL OREGON COAST..
COMMUNITIES 3PM 7PM-MID 1AM 35-45 MPH G75-85 MPH
BEACHES/HEADLANDS 3PM 7PM-MID 1AM 45-60 MPH G85-100 MPH
WILLIPA HILLS AND NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE..
COMMUNITIES/VALLEYS 7PM 9PM-MID 1AM 30-45 MPH G50-60 MPH
PEAKS/RIDGES 6PM 8PM-MID 2AM 45-65 MPH G80-100 MPH
CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE..
COMMUNITIES/VALLEYS 7PM 9PM-MID 1AM 30-40 MPH G50-65 MPH
PEAKS/RIDGES 6PM 8PM-MID 2AM 40-55 MPH G70-85 MPH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON INTERIOR AND LOWER COLUMBIA LOWLANDS..
COMMUNITIES/VALLEYS 7PM 9PM-1AM 3AM 25-40 MPH G50-60 MPH
PEAKS/RIDGES 6PM 8PM-2AM 3AM 40-50 MPH G65-80 MPH
NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CLARK COUNTY..
COMMUNITIES/VALLEYS 7PM 9PM-2AM 4AM 35-45 MPH G55-65 MPH
HILLS/EXPOSED AREAS 7PM 9PM-2AM 4AM 40-50 MPH G65-75 MPH
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY..
COMMUNITIES/VALLEYS 8PM 10PM-2AM 3AM 35-45 MPH G55-65 MPH
HILLS/EXPOSED AREAS 8PM 9PM-2AM 4AM 40-50 MPH G65-75 MPH
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY..
COMMUNITIES/VALLEYS 9PM 10PM-2AM 3AM 30-40 MPH G50-65 MPH
HILLS/EXPOSED AREAS 8PM 9PM-2AM 3AM 35-45 MPH G60-65 MPH
SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS..
COMMUNITIES/VALLEYS 9PM 10PM-1AM 3AM 30-45 MPH G50-65 MPH
PEAKS/RIDGES 8PM 10PM-2AM 4AM 50-65 MPH G80-100 MPH
PEAKS ABOVE 8000 FEET.. 75-90 MPH G105-130 MPH
FOOTHILLS AND HIGH CASCADES OF LANE COUNTY..
COMMUNITIES/VALLEYS 9PM 10PM-1AM 2AM 25-35 MPH G50-55 MPH
PEAKS/RIDGES 9PM 10PM-1AM 3AM 35-45 MPH G65-80 MPH
COLUMBIA GORGE.. 2AM 3AM-7AM 9AM 25-35 MPH G45-50 MPH
NOTE: WINDS IN GORGE WILL BECOMING WEST AND INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE GORGE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
I wouldn’t be surprised by 2 inches or so of rain Andrew.
My backyard is beginning to slightly flood with large puddles. This will only make matters worse saturating the ground before high winds kick in.
Station 46002 275NM West of Coos Bay 130W/42N
29.54 in (1000m) -0.13 Falling rapidly
I am going with a peak wind gust of 76mph at the portland airport…
I am bad at forcasting winds, but at this point i would say that is certaintly a possiblility. I will have more on that later, have a few things i need to get done this morning if i am going to be staying up late tonight. Looks like we could see 2 inches of rain from this sytem today, and then more overnight.
Station 46029 – COL RIVER BAR – 78NM South Southwest of Aberdeen, WA 124W/46N
29.63 in (1003mb) -0.23 (Falling rapidly)
WV Loop..
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=wv&size=4
Currently located near 135W/46N moving E
The weather channel / weather.com seems to be giving our storm quite a bit of attention on their website – usually our weather gets buried beneath other areas of the country :-P
993mb*
Station 46036 – South Nomad 133W/48N
29.32 in(998mb) -0.24 (Falling rapidly)
Yeah same here. I’d like to see and be able to post the most accurate, up-to-date info I can on here.
I’m estimating the low is around 979-982mb right now
I see no reason why it should be above 966mb. I forecast the strength to be 962-966tops. Tylers point mirrors my thoughts. This thing will easily be a super monster. I wish they would update the map for the storms central pressure every once in a while
I think 60-70mph for now, but if the strongest gradient shifts south somewhat or the storm does end up 957-966mb then we might need to up the winds.
Any thoughts?
Everything is still in place for a pretty good blow. The low was at 984mb at 12z, GFS had it 12mb stronger at the same time. You can assume by that it will be at LEAST a 964mb low when it comes inland. I think right now its probably 981mb or so. Sticking with my 70-85 instantanious gusts, I will try and narrow that to a +/-5 in the 6 hours before the event.
Interesting…MM-5 had the storm at 994 mb last night at 10 pm., yet the low was already at 988. It has it at about 971 at landfall, so probably 965 or so, agreeing with Steve. However, it does seem to keep the strongest gradient just north of here, we’ll see though.
44.1 here, pressure 29.71″ (1006 mb) and falling, wind S @ 2.
Tyler
Station 46002 – OREGON – 275NM West of Coos Bay OR
130W/42N
29.58 in (1001mb) -0.13 (Falling rapidly)
Updated info
—————-
To give everyone an idea on it’s intensity I am reporting ship/buoy observation below
——————————-
Station 46661 – Drifting Buoy 134W/45N
29.14 in(987mb) -0.19 (Falling rapidly)
–
Station 46036 – South Nomad 133W/48N
29.40 in(995mb) -0.24 (Falling rapidly)
–
Station 46005 – 315NM Aberdeen, WA 131W/46N
29.21 in(989mb) -0.27 (Falling rapidly)
Greatest Pressure falls are due W or just N of Astoria
I will be keeping tracking monitoring these buoys and giving new data when it becomes available.
You can also do the same at this site.
http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Northwest.shtml
Yeah Steve sure will. Looks like there will be a nice burst of S wind with that strong warm front.
I have the southwest Oregon observation map up to monitor things.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/mwmap.php?map=mfr
Well, it’ll be important to monitor what’s happening to our south today. 7am report from NWS…
NEWPORT RAIN SW30 G40 29.77F
NORTH BEND CLOUDY S23 G40 29.89F
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KUIL&table=1&banner=off
Quillayute has been reporting snow off and on since 10:50 PM last night according to that.
Also I noticed they have had a light offshore flow and dewpoints have fallen down to 32F.
INTERESTING.
Why does the 06z GFS give so much moisture to seattle on sunday but only .11 in for PDX?
Good morning and yes I did get some sleep Lol. Today could prove very worthy of such excitement and anticipation.
This is for Steve in Mill City. Sorry I didn’t respond to your post, I had just left for bed.
I do not know if you are protect or shielded from S winds as say compared to Eugene/valley locations.
However you said you were 850′ and anyone with any elevation should help give them higher winds as the higher winds from 2,000+ aloft try to surface.
Mark just did a radio update on KXL. He said this could be the biggest storm since 1995.
Morning, Rob. Hope you got a little sleep last night. Should be a long day today! Looking forward to it. REALLY interesting that Forks is reporting some snow this morning.
Ok I posted about this model last night. This is new info from and it’s amazing.
This model shows the system offshore developing.
This may be an hour old or so.
The blue #’s you see I believe are the pressure rises/falls.
The -negative obviously is falling pressure, and +positive are pressure rises.
I am not sure if the numbers reflect hourly changes in pressure, but I see some astonishing pressure falls of -0.56, and a -0.74! out ahead of the low pressure center.
I also see incredible pressure rises of +0.35, +0.50, and an amazing +0.61 behind the front/bent back occlusion.
I will also be updating this data throughout the day when new info becomes available
Any thoughts?
This model (It may be an hour old or so) has the low at 984mb (29.06 in)
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?fronts-ir
That follows closely with the buoy observations I posted.