Slightly Easier Forecast (and not so cold)

November 24, 2006

00z models are all in and there are 2 definite trends.
1.  Low IS going to go farther north…apparently the NAM isn’t so wacko this time.  GFS has a Hoquiam-Seattle track now at 00z.  That’s mild & windy Sunday weather for Portland with a snow level up around 2,500′.
2.  I noticed this just a bit this afternoon and ignored it, but now it seems to be a trend;  not as much cold air makes it in here as the deep upper level trough slides more off to the east than southeast Monday-Tuesday.  That stalls the arctic front which pretty much dies overhead Tuesday.  Then easterly offshore flow picks up Wednesday.  Not really a blast of cold air but more of a "seepage".  Instead of unseasonable cold and high temps near freezing, that will just give us "real chilly" temps and highs 35-40.  I usually don’t jump on just one model run, but as I said, this seems to be a trend from NAM to GFS to our own RPM model.
3.  So will it snow?  Maybe something like the March snow event with showery onshore flow Monday and several inches above 1000′, but not much below.  I’ve revised the 7 Day forecast.  Only you web viewers will ever know that I had 32 degree highs for PDX at one point.  A sort of "behind the scenes" look at the weather center in operation?…Mark