4:00pm Update

November 27, 2006

Just a brief bit of time to blog so I can get things done quickly in the next hour.  Always better to have forecast pages all finished just in case something hits the fan between 5-9pm.

Cold showers moving through this afternoon.  That heavy band produced snow to near sea level around 2:30pm as it crossed the metro area.  More showers moving over the Coast Range now.  Notice how cold the airmass is…we didn’t even have an hourly report to 40 degrees in the metro area. So I think we’ll drop close to or under freezing in all of the metro area by 8pm at the latest.  Of course any light showers then will accumulate.

Of greater interest is the continued insistence of mesoscale models (MM5 & our RPM) dropping some sort of surface boundary/dying arctic front/surface trough feature down the coastline overnight tonight.  That will mark the end of the snow showers, but there may be a brief burst of widespread light snow with it.  Both models have it through the metro area around midnight, then all dry by daybreak Tuesday.  I assume this is related to an obvious surface low off the NW Washington Coast this afternoon.  Clouds are streaming onshore looking quite a bit more solid ahead of it…just about reaching down to Astoria at 4pm.  Looks to me that there could be a good 1-3" at the beaches on the North Oregon Coast tonight!  Even a better chance there than here!

Cold and dry then tomorrow/Wednesday.  Dry east wind arrives tomorrow night.  System Thursday looks like a quick warmup (all the way to 38-40), but I bet we get a nice burst of snow/freezing rain Thursday morning…Mark