Weekend Update

Hi again…

A late post tonight, but this one should get us through the weekend.

Saturday looks to be a repeat of Friday, as the strong ridge continues its hold over the Northwest.  With the sunshine (after AM fog), we should easily reach the mid 60s again Saturday afternoon.

Everything changes Sunday.  A cold, but weak system drops out of the Northwest… allowing the coldest air of the season-to-date to plunge into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains States.  Some of that chilly air will make it west of the Cascades… courtesy of the east wind that I expect will pick up Sunday night or Monday morning.  With the front’s passage Sunday, there is an opportunity for a little light rain… with the best chance of that happening in the morning.

How cold will the arriving cold air be?  I’m thinking low-mid 50s for highs Monday and Tuesday… and lows could be anywhere from 25 to 37 — depending on the wind.  Windy areas (such as Troutdale, PDX, and along the Cascade foothills) may not have a freeze… but valley locations where the wind dies down could have their first widespread hard freeze of the season early next week.

After Wednesday, the models are hinting that a pattern change towards mild and wet weather may be coming.  There is still no sign of any cold, wet storms that are necessary to start building the Cascade snowpack.  Bummer…

Enjoy the weekend… especially Saturday’s sunshine!

– Drew J

PS – Mark returns Monday… the day we move into our brand new weather center!!!  (But you won’t see it on TV for at least another week…)

150 Responses to Weekend Update

  1. i want snow says:

    wow i cant believe it. i know this is a weather blog but the beavers actually won. wow

  2. josh "the snowman" says:

    We still need another 12 hours to get this front through, then winds will change for sure.

  3. josh "the snowman" says:

    Still mild Jesse.
    51 deg, winds south at 5 mph.

  4. Jesse says:

    What does the temp and wind direction look like up there in Everett Josh?

  5. Jesse says:

    I think in Forecasting our highs and lows for early next week many stations are underestimating just how cold that air will be in the Columbia Basin, and we’ve got an open refrigerator door with the east winds. There may be a couple days where East county residents such as myself, Derek, Justin, Anthony and Droppin don’t see highs above 45. With lows quickly dropping into the 20s.

  6. josh "the snowman" says:

    BTW, that trough is starting to dive real quick. Clouds are thickening fast for me now.

  7. josh "the snowman" says:

    Keep in mind Jesse, that extended is Seattle. Shave 5 or 6 degrees and that is me: = low 40’s for highs probably.

  8. josh "the snowman" says:

    Hmm, am I actually going to “out-blog” Derek today? Would be a first. He’ll probably overtake me later as I’ll be at the Casino…lol.

  9. Jesse says:

    Wow, if temps that low are being forecast for Everett we have a pretty good chance of getting some chilly days, maybe even around 45 for a high Monday, and as Derek was saying Wednesday. Everett may have the Puget Sound Convergence Zone, but we have the refrigerator known as the Columbia River Gorge. Pendleton NWS is saying that highs may only stay in the upper 20s in the higher mountains of Central and Eastern Oregon Mnday and Tuesday, and some sheltered valleys will most likely see lows in the single digits. So that is the source region of our east winds, with temps like that! That would maybe give us a shot at being as cold as that Everett Forecast.

  10. josh "the snowman" says:

    Well, here’s the link to the Seattle extended. The actual telecast gives extended’s for the Everett area also. King5 is the best forecaster up here, so these numbers can be trusted.
    BTW, you can usually knock about 5 to 6 deg off of Seattle’s temps and that is mine…sometimes more.

  11. Derek Hodges says:

    nice, could I also see the station forecasting those temps.

  12. Derek Hodges says:

    Monday-Wednesday could all stay in the fourties.

  13. josh "the snowman" says:

    Ok, Derek. Here you go. You can’t really tell but current conditions say it is indeed flurrying…it’s white though…ha ha.. Just pretend it’s PDX! 🙂
    http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/

  14. Derek Hodges says:

    hey, I want to see this webcam 🙂

  15. josh "the snowman" says:

    One of the stations up here is forecasting:
    Mon: Hi 43 lo 28
    Tue: Hi 42 lo 32
    Keep in mind this is for Everett.

  16. Jesse says:

    It looks like temps today are struggling to get out of the mid-50s as of 3pm even with the ridge still over head. What is everyone thinking realistically as far as highs Monday-Wednesday? Are mid-upper 40s, maybe 50 at the warmest, still looking good to most everyone?

  17. Mat says:

    I wouldn’t be surprised if we were clear half the night tonight and the temp dropped far enough, we could possibly see a few flurries when it starts. Alright, probably not, but it’d be fun.

  18. josh "the snowman" says:

    Oh my god…I just saw a flurry.
    On the Fairbanks airport webcam. 🙂

  19. Jesse says:

    Yeah, January 1st was probably better becuase there was more snow and it lasted longer. But there was something really cool about the November 19th event. I think it was the fact that everyone woke up preparing for another rainy Oregon November day and we ended up having a beautiful blanket of white. When the January 1st, 2004 storm hit we were already in ‘snow mode’ so it wasn’t quite the surpise, although statistically is was a better storm.

  20. Derek Hodges says:

    Jan 1st was a surprise. Mark told me personally about that one when I was at KPTV that one night.

  21. josh "the snowman" says:

    Shoot, the way they’ve been forecasting them the last 10 years, most of them have been surprises….lol.
    No offense Mark.

  22. Mat says:

    I think there was another surprise snowstorm that year as well. Maybe a little later in Nov. or Dec. somewhere, right?

  23. josh "the snowman" says:

    Did I tell you guys it snowed briefly during a squall line on May 2nd at my house last year?

  24. Derek Hodges says:

    That was one of the best snows ever, I too remember it vividly. I remember watching Mark the night before and on his “trueview” as they called it at the time it showed a couple flakes but he didn’t say anything so I forgot about it. The next morning I went outside at about 7 or 8 and noticed there were heavy rain drops with the resemblance to snow. I was excited since I knew nothing about this. I was going to get my hard cast on that morning from breaking my ankle horribly lol. Anyhow as we drove there it continued and started to look better and better. Just as we were getting ready to exit the interstate it switched to straight snow. When we got to the hospital I noticed some of the flakes were not instantly melting, but sliding down the window for many seconds before melting. I went inside and for about 45minutes I could not look outside. I was very anxious, when I finally did I was shocked and amazed to see everything coated in a layer of white and coming down very hard still. It was awesome. So we drove back to my school in the heavy snow, when I got there it was at least 2inches deep and after another hour it ended with about 3inches of accumulation. I will never forget it.

  25. josh "the snowman" says:

    So Justin? Have you seen anything lately to make you rethink your “no snow” stance?

  26. Jesse says:

    I remember the surprise snow of November 19th, 2003 like it was yesterday. The afternoon of the 18th was grey and mild, with temperatures around 60. I remember walking home from school and thinking it felt pretty balmy out. Everyone knew a cold front was going to come in that night from the Gulf of Alaska and bring us cooler weather and lower snow levels. But No One was saying anything about snow down to sea level. That night when I went to bed I remember Mark Nelsen on the 10 ‘0 Clock News commenting on the fact that it was still 59 degrees as of 10pm on a late November night, pretty warm. Winds were from the SSW ahead of the front if I recall. Every station was predicting highs around hitting 55 around noon the next day before dropping into the 40s in the afternoon as the front passed. I woke up the next morning and it was raining, HARD. Flipped on the weather channel, I was surprised it had dropped to about 43 with heavy rain and I noticed on the satellite the front had taken a more east-west orientation , it was bearing down on us directly from the North. As I walked to school the rain became heavier and the North wind started really gusting, maybe 25-30mph. It felt like it was dropping into the upper 30s and indeed it was. By second period, I was in Band when the rain starting looking kind of strange out the window, it was turning to snow! By 11am or so Temperatures were 29 or 30 and snow was falling pretty heavily. Stopped afternoon but that was one of my favorite surprise snows ever.

  27. Tyler says:

    My own weather records show a rain/snow mix on the 2nd of November with a high of 42.
    On the 19th, My high was 56 at 12:07 AM, with very heavy rain and gusty winds (37 mph). By 8 AM, temps had cooled to freezing and snow was falling heavily with 1.2″ accumulating at my house in Vancouver. The day ended with 1.08″ of precip.
    Tyler

  28. josh "the snowman" says:

    Here’s the best I could find from the Oregonian archives:
    November 2, 2003
    SNOW, RAIN OR COMBO POSSIBLE TODAY Summary: If temperatures remain low, areas of Portland above 500 feet could get up to 2 inches of snow
    A moist, westerly air flow moving into the Portland area early today, combined with cold temperatures, could bring up to 2 inches of snow to the city’s higher hills, weather forecasters said.
    But meteorologists also caution that the temperatures could moderate and the precipitation could turn to a mix of rain and snow or simply rain.

  29. Derek Hodges says:

    For this one instance I will come them accuweather lol Just to be nice or something.

  30. josh "the snowman" says:

    Maybe Drew will chime in and give us the specifics. I tried looking up the archives but I couldn’t do it.

  31. Mat says:

    Headline reads: Surprise Snow!! I thought it was innaccuweather Derek? lol

  32. Derek Hodges says:

    uhhh, well whatever, nothing else to say about that unless we see your paper.

  33. Mat says:

    I’m not reading it wrong and I dont the equipment to show a pic online. Anywho, OSU 23, USC 10.

  34. Derek Hodges says:

    Maybe this is anti-support but accuweather has us as very windy on Wednesday from the east. http://wwwa.accuweather.com/forecast-details.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&zipcode=97030&metric=0&fday=5
    Though they stink at everything else their wind forecasts in the short term, 1-5days, are actually pretty good. LOL

  35. Derek Hodges says:

    I guess if thats the case it would have to be the following day lol

  36. Justin says:

    Yeah, not to mention the high temp on the 1st was only 45, so there couldn’t have been any evaporative cooling that day from 60 degrees.
    Perhaps the paper says November 20 and you misread read it and forgot the 0? Or perhaps Derek’s right and it was a misprint and just says November 2 instead of November 20.

  37. Derek Hodges says:

    1st – 19th Perhaps the 9 isn’t on your paper somehow?

  38. Derek Hodges says:

    None of the records show any precip that day so I don’t know what to think…

  39. Justin says:

    Could you take a pic of it and post it online please?
    I’m 101% sure that there was nothing.
    Because you said 14 degree temp drop I’m pretty sure you’re talking about the 19th of November, because there was evaporative cooling that day with 60 degree temps in the morning before the snow. And it was a surprise snow. So I’m also 101% sure that that’s what you’re thinking of.

  40. Mat says:

    That’s funny. I still have newspapers from Nov. 2nd that talked about the snowfall the morning before. There’s a picture of downtown with snow coming down hard on the frontpage. I’m not making it up. I just read it again.

  41. Derek Hodges says:

    I don’t remember anything from the 1st either.

  42. Mat says:

    Peace everyone. Gonna go grab a bite to eat. Talk to you all later.

  43. Justin says:

    It wasn’t on November 1, 2003, so you’re still wrong.
    There was some precip on November 2 that dropped a few wet flakes, but there was no 14 degree temperature drop.

  44. Derek Hodges says:

    I know I had flurries November 2nd as well. They didn’t stick and didn’t last long so it must have been localized. I want to see one flake and I will be happy lol

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