End of the week Warmth?

Hello all… it’s been a while since I’ve had the blogging honor!

I read many of the comments in the previous post (yes, when Big Brother is on vacation, the Little Brother pays attention for him).  Some of you need a reminder to play nice… and thanks to some of you for saying that for me in your own comments.

On to the weather.  The big forecast dilemma over the next couple days is… does the ridge build enough to shift the storm track far enough north to keep clouds out of our sky?  At this point, I say yes.  Heights get into the 582 dm range Fri-Sat and thicknesses are quite high for this time of year (as are 850 mb temps).  With sunshine, high temperatures in the upper 60s shouldn’t be too tough.  Record highs this time of year are still in the low 70s… so 65-70 is totally in the realm of possibility.  Again, the fly in the ointment is high cloud cover.  We’ll see…

We’re entering the time of year when the fall rains should either be underway or just around the corner.  Not this year.  I don’t see any sign of a significant pattern shift to bring us a rainy pattern.  Perhaps later next week… but certainly not before.  Sorry skiers/snowboarders… patience may be required this fall.

– Drew J

266 Responses to End of the week Warmth?

  1. Justin says:

    Hope you get something Sean, I agree most rain should be head of the front so no moisture when the good stuff gets in, maybe some flurries though with the backedge of the front.
    And Ryan, where do you live? 47.5 seems awful warm.

  2. Ryan says:

    The weather gods don’t like me. I’m sitting at 47.5 it is dropping fairly rapidly.

  3. Sean (Indiana) says:

    A dusting at most I would say.. Not really any moisture with this system is the problem. By the time we get cold enough, 530s and down into the 520s moisture is already off to the east as of the last run. Of course that is still a few days out though, so things could change..

  4. Derek Hodges says:

    new thread..

  5. Sean (Indiana) says:

    So who watched the Fox 12 weather segment? Did they have anything interesting to say about next week?
    I’ve currently got 44.. 😛

  6. Justin says:

    Might you get snow out of this nice early season arctic outbreak Sean?

  7. Justin says:

    42.2 here Derek, no way you’re that much colder than me, lol. I’d add 1.5 degrees, maybe even 2 since you live in West Gresham.

  8. Sean (Indiana) says:

    It looks like the airmass that will effect the NW on Monday is what will be visiting me towards Wed/Thurs. Though I will at least get one(maybe two) nice and warm days before more cold weather at least. Forecasting a high of nearly 70 on Monday and by Wed/Thursday down to 40s possibly 30s for highs.

  9. Derek Hodges says:

    41.4? lol Maybe I should add a degree to whatever it shows.

  10. Justin says:

    Hey Sean, yeah, we are ridiculous with this 10:30 stuff, should be sleeping!
    That’s a nice bomb forming right now oer the Great Lakes, should give Buffalo yet another extremely early season snowfall, what a weird month this has been with not one but now probably two of these.
    00z NAM paints a pretty significant arctic event for us, gives us 531-532dm and keeps the chilly 534dm thickness line to our south for both Monday and Tuesday, probably supporting highs in the 45-49 range and really chilly lows, possibly some upper teens in outlying areas?
    As for the wind, I don’t see any significant wind event, isobars look fairly close briefly around 00z Monday as the flow switches to offshore after the front, *could* get a few quick gusts to 30mph if it pans out to my untrained eyes, but it would be brief and weak, not like the 55mph windstorm last February 17.

  11. luvrydog says:

    So wierd…if you watch the gfs loop, you can almost look at the cold cold air wanting to dive south towards us but the low that comes up the coast to near Jeaneu, with the counterclockwise rotation almost acts as a damn, actually pushing that cold air back north…wonder would happen if that low doesn’t form!

  12. Sean (Indiana) says:

    Just been taking a look at the system that is starting to bring me some winds.. The system has been definitely intensifying pretty quickly, looking at some local observations from earlier today at 1153 the pressure was 29.71 within 4 hours it was 29.56 and bottomed out at 29.54 about 2 hours later. Could be some wind damage along the inland east coast, as alot of rain has fallen. Even in my backyard I had some flooding from so much rain.
    Also, kind of interested in seeing what the 00z models have to say about next week. Looks chilly for all at least!

  13. Droppin(Rob) says:

    43.3

  14. Derek Hodges says:

    Could be close Droppin. As you temps could be in the teens in the columbia basin, along with a strong surface high, and as I was mentioning a strong storm just to our west approaching. GFS had it at 996mb actually. COuld be very strong indeed Haloween night, have fun trick or treating LOL Whats your current temperature Droppin?

  15. Droppin(Rob) says:

    Derek, when you say “very strong east wind event” are you looking for anything close to the east wind storm we had following the arctic front in February?

  16. Sean (Indiana) says:

    Good evening you Night Owls.. LOL

  17. Derek Hodges says:

    Keep in touch Kirk, its nice to have our snow friends back. BTW could be a very strong east wind event before the rain/(snow? lol) I am going to keep hoping, its good to be optimistic. Anyhow check out the nam toward the end, http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/eta00zsfc.html
    Obvious surface high pumping cold air through the gorge, it is also slightly cooler than the GFS. Anyway with that pouring through and a low coming from the west that will really suck the cold air towards us. 42.6, wow.

  18. kirk says:

    44.4 Catch you guys later!!

  19. Derek Hodges says:

    Hey do you live in Beaverton?

  20. Derek Hodges says:

    Actually, though I will still move it, I think its correct. But the other thermo thats in the gutter not on it is 2 degrees cooler! Goes to show what “valleys” can do for you. So I will assume its good for tonight, hanging around 43.3 still.

  21. i want snow says:

    o yeah. thanks.

  22. Derek Hodges says:

    West Gresham, 300ft.

  23. Derek Hodges says:

    I put my thermometer on the roof. Although tonight its probably slightly colder than the real air temp. Its on the gutter in an enclosed area so that the air all rushes down to it but no wind interupts. It, so its really that temp there, but my other thermo in the gutter is almost to the thirtes, so its a strange anomaly. Tomorrow I will still have it on the roof, but on a side more exposed to the air. So really its probably about 1 degree warmer than it shows. But I don’t know for sure so I will see when I move it tomorrow.

  24. i want snow says:

    *live

  25. i want snow says:

    hey derek where do u liev again? sorry i should know but i forgot. why are u so much cooler?

  26. Derek Hodges says:

    43.3 :)))

  27. Justin says:

    00z GFS looks pretty close to 18z , gives us about 535 thickness, probably supports -4c or -5c 850mb temps followed by two juicy storms later next week .
    As for bomb potential, I could see it happening, ensembles seem to agree on cool trough seeral hundred miles off the coast, with a warm ridge off the SoCal coast and a SW flow over us, seems like the first real storm formation zone setup of the winter season for us, and generally the first is one of the best.

  28. i want snow says:

    its 45.8 here. i wish it would get colder. i cant wait until early next week for cold temps. i love walking to the bus stop when a freeze occurs. it makes me think of winter and snow.

  29. Tyler says:

    I don’t see any low close enough to the coast to give us anything other than breezy winds. It would be nice to get some substantial rain and snow in here, we need it pretty bad.
    I’m headed to bed now, I work at 5. 47 right now at my house, fairly warm.
    Tyler

  30. -100F says:

    keep in mind that when Mark is out of town, we tend to get wild weather :).

  31. kirk says:

    Elevation dose not help me on nights like this the cold air settles in the valley. Im above the fog and sinking cold air 45.0 and clear here!

  32. NR says:

    FWIW, 00Z GFS is as aggressive with the rain next week as it’s ever been, and tracks a low straight up the coast Thursday morning.
    Whether it has bomb potential, we shall see.

  33. Droppin(Rob) says:

    I’m running a tad warmer. 45.3F here

  34. Derek Hodges says:

    Droppin whats your temp. 43.9 at last check here. By the way when I move my thermo tomorrow it will be 100% accurate. I figured out why its so cold, its sitting on a gutter in an enclosed area on a roof. So the cold air slids down the roof and sits there making it rather chilly. The other thermo only 3 inches away, but in the gutter, is a full degree cooler. I think my one that I have been posting is fairly accurate so I am glad to finally be among the cold numbers.

  35. Droppin(Rob) says:

    Evening all. The DLS-PDX gradient is at -.08 Any thoughts on the gradient going flat overnight or slightly positive (east wind situation)?

  36. -100F says:

    wow vancouver is even nicer!
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=CYVR&submit.x=0&submit.y=0&submit=submit
    lol, the heights are in purple. Now if only we had that…and maybe some mositure? lol

  37. i want snow says:

    its down to 48.1 here. thats actually a little warmer than the last few nights.

  38. Justin says:

    LOL Kirk, I was about to put that Kirk/Camas Mom up at 1000-1500ft could probably challenge me, probably should have seeing as you’re probably already colder than me right now (I’m about 46.5)

  39. Justin says:

    Seems like a good move Derek, check and ake sure for trends enarby and if its ALWAYS running noticeably lower than everyone else then I’d maybe move it to a more central location, far from any heat/electrical sources and in the edge of the shade.
    And yeah Tyler, if you count late season stuff its been even more impressive in the last 5 or 6 years. We had the late season teens on February 24-25, 2003, the snow and cold in March 2002 and the late season snow/cold last March (high of 39 on March 9), not to mention the big coldsnap last february and the modified arctic air in mid February 2005 (dropped me down to 19 on the 15th).
    Also, as far as early season stuff goes, had 18 degrees on November 19, 2000 and had a dusting of snow on Thanksgiving Day in 2000 with that intense coldsnap, plus the afromentioned at the start of November in 2003 and the November 19, 2003 snow and ensuing coldsnap, and Halloween 2002.

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