One Post This Week

I’m taking time off Tuesday-Sunday and won’t be back until next Monday, so it’s possible there won’t be any posts the rest of the week.  That’s unless Drew decides to check in Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday.

Nice little cold front advancing towards the coastline at a pretty good clip this evening.  Should be over the metro area by 5am at the latest.  As someone on the earlier comments noted, it doesn’t have much moisture with it and the high clouds have pulled away from the low-level front.  So total rain here in the Western Valleys will likely only be .25-.50".  The coldest air of the season is following though.  An 850mb temp just below zero by Wednesday AM could bring snow down to just under 4000′, but there will be very little precip by that time.  At best expect a light dusting in the Cascades. 

A somewhat flat ridge follows Wednesday-Sunday for mainly dry weather again.  I’m assuming we get some southerly surface wind Friday or Saturday to push temperatures back up to or near 70 degrees. 

Long range models continue to be all over the place with very little continuity between models and even within model runs themselves.  Some show troughing moving inland Monday and beyond, but others split the trough and keep most offshore.  Roll the dice!…Mark

Update – 7:30pm.  Upon closer inspection of models, including our own RPM model here…looks more like .10" west metro to .25" east metro with the incoming cold front…a pretty dry one.  Hope it’s not a sign of the winter to come!

290 Responses to One Post This Week

  1. Derek Hodges says:

    I could copy and paste the whole thing and say its 290 comments haha

  2. Justin says:

    Whoa, new blog, so much for 1000, 290 I think on this one.

  3. Derek Hodges says:

    Your no snow rants won’t phase me, it will snow!!

  4. Derek Hodges says:

    Just change something in your posting info just slightly and the robot message should stop, it did for me when I dropped my websight.

  5. Justin says:

    Derek, my house would literally own your’s if such an event were to occur, you’d be crying that you live south of the river. Other than that, good scenario, but more like:
    Justin’s house- Twice as much as whatever Derek’s house gets, always
    40 here now and dropping still at a decent rate, but I’m thinking fog is a good bet for tonight with RH already in the 92-94% range most places, and a non existent wind.
    BTW, no snow this winter…..

  6. Derek Hodges says:

    I think my favorite line from my “story” was “and we all die, but go out in style.” lol That storm didn’t do as much damage on my side of the city but I remember a 20ft branch falling on some unlucky persons car lol. I thought it was cool..but I was 5 so thats what all 5 year olds think. Oh great, now you all are going to shun me for being cruel and insensative. hahaha

  7. salemphil says:

    Awww poodlepoo!!! Youtube is down for maintenance so I can’t check out that vid. 43 here in salem btw. I would post more but that robot thingy is too irritating!

  8. luvrydog says:

    Derek…the day after tomorrow, lol??? Only one problem, we wouldn’t live here anymore, we’d either be dead or basically gophers, lol.. 42.9 here in Beaverton, about 2 degrees cooler than last night. I want to hear some stories…new subject, personal accounts of the windstorm in 95. I remember a 150ft tall hitting the road right in front of my house. All the dishes in the room jumped, I think I did as well, I heard the cracking, grabbed my mom and sister, jumped over them and ducked in the kitchen…didn’t end up hitting my house but demolished the next door neighbors…I remember the whole street was completely covered in branches from firs. I don’t know if any of you remember the story about the house blowing up in Lake oswego, I felt the reverberation from that as well, when I went outside there was a massive black cloud in the sky, I went down there that evening with a search light in my suv and there was NOTHING but splinters…anyone else have any crazy stories from that massive storm? Or of the flooding directly thereafter…?

  9. Derek Hodges says:

    46.0 now, too bad I had to warm up but at least it cooled back down. I will forecast 37 tonight for my house. That is assuming something stops me from going lower.

  10. Derek Hodges says:

    Post 282, on our way. 🙂

  11. Derek Hodges says:

    Something shifts in the core of the earth which causes it to tilt and stall so we never face the sun for the whole winter. By January the cold pool of -50C air is right over us and along with raging east winds temps drop to about -30 degrees. Then a colossal storm like no other rages in the new found cold climate dumping about 12inches of moisture a day right over us and it sits there till February(From mid December)and dumps about 600ft of snow/sleet/ice and we all die, but go out in style. I of course had 601ft to justins 599ft.

  12. Derek Hodges says:

    Temp down to 46.2 all of the sudden. Again, seperate posts of course.

  13. Droppin(Rob) says:

    Lol

  14. Derek Hodges says:

    Good job there Justin, let me think of mine. In a seperate post of course.

  15. luvrydog says:

    Hey ya’ll thought I’d pass this, kind of a wierd coincedence. There’s this girl I work with, she just told me her girls play soccer with andy carson’s kids…so she said she is gonna tell him that I am a weather freak, lol. I told her to tell him I was at the weather conference and I blog on this thing all the time. It’ll be funny to see what he says, she told me she’s gonna tell him how I’m the friggen weather nut at work and that they always come to me if they need the weekend forecast, wierd how I get a lot of my questionable forecasts ironed out here…wierd how everything is full circle. I also told her to hook me up with a job shadow…we’ll see if that actually happens, I think they only do that for high school seniors, we’ll see.

  16. Justin says:

    I don’t know Steve, I don’t see anything supportive of 68 on any of the major models myself, I’d still say 65 for Saturday-Sunday both, give or take a degree or so.
    Droppin, I think that’s a good idea. To get to 1000 let’s just think of extreme weather scenarios for the region.
    I’ll start:
    In response to a PNA of -18, a large arctic trough is settling in over the entire West Coast, giving Los Angeles about 5” of sow and Phoenix a dusting.
    January 1-4, 2007- After about 3” of snow an arctic front comes in and drops the high at PDX down to 15, with a low of 4 on the 4th.
    January 5, 2007- With the ground solidly frozen and with the 3” snowpack, a 982mb low sails up the coast with 2-3” of precip. It first brings us a nice band of snow, which drops about 6” on the area (9” for my house). Then in the calm of the storm, as the center of circulation passes just to our south, we get a nice easterly pressure gradient that reinforces the arctic air, and gives PDX a 74mph wind gust that topples all of the trees in town and blows the roof of Derek’s house.
    January 6, 2007- The really wet backedge of the storm moves in, starting off as snow and giving us another 10”, by now we have about 19” on the ground with treest down everywhere. The 10” of snow topples all the trees left standing. Then a secondary low forms and creates a nice inversion over us, as 50mph easterly winds blow through the snowpack and 11 degree cold. This touches off a nice sleetstorm first, giving us about 3” of pure sleet, and as the low moves RIGHT over us we get added instability that gives us an hour of thundersleet and a funnel cloud on the snowpack, which touches down as an F1 snownado and blows the snow all through the city. This changes over to freezing rain and gives us another 2” of ice, which knocks out the West Coast power grid.
    January 7-25, 2007- The city is shut down by the 19” of snow, 3” of sleet, and 2” of ice, and the temp fails to rise back above freezing as reinforcing arctic fronts drop down throughout the city, giving us another 8” of snow, with 27” on the ground now. The power doesn’t come back on until the 22nd and schools are closed until May. Most workers are out for even longer, and I don’t have to work again until October 2007, while still making money.

  17. Justin says:

    Oops, double post
    looks like I need to correct correct from that post as well
    *correct*

  18. Justin says:

    The best waay to get to 1000 is to corret all of your typos

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