Windy Saturday

As you folks have discussed in great detail in the last post, it was a fun meeting today at OMSI.  Nice to meet a few of you too.  Those of you that did make it discovered one of the secrets of TV…everyone looks the same size don’t they?  Short people look taller than they are and tall folks look shorter.  People always tell me "I thought you were shorter!".

Okay, on to weather.  I see at 9pm the PDX-DLS pressure gradient (through the Gorge), just turned negative.  Easterly flow is beginning now and will increase to 6-8 millibars by midday tomorrow.  Peak gusts to 50 mph are likely at the west end of the Gorge.  Of course we do have a moist atmosphere in place over the metro area.  So with the east wind not arriving for most areas until after daybreak, we’re set up a for a thin layer of dense fog overnight.

The wind dies quickly on Sunday as we switch to onshore flow again.  A weak wave moving by starts that up pretty quickly.  A much stronger shortwave carves out a brief, but cold trough for midweek.  This should be our coldest airmass so far this fall season…500-1000mb thicknesses fall to around 532 dm Wednesday morning, which brings snow showers down to around 3000′ or a little lower. 

Models after that point are ALL over the place, so who knows what happens later next week.  We’ll save that for the weekend crew…Mark

210 Responses to Windy Saturday

  1. stevelikessun says:

    Wow- You were right, I will get eatin’ alive!!I can hold my own, I like the sun and that is all there is to it. I have lived in California before and understand the dry and lack of rain. Believe me, I understand the importance of rain and the economy, I am in the Forest Industry. I thought this was a place to post your “thoughts/opinions” on the weather at hand. I guess I am the black sheep of the group!! I will praising the sun and warmth, while all others like the snow and rain, it is understandable. I am out numbered here but that is ok with me! I really respect all of your knowledge about weather, seems like this is a good place to find the “real” forecast. So, I hope you all don’t stomp on a fan of the sun, even though I live in Oregon, I can still enjoy the sun. By the way, I would be willing to bet most everyone here can wait alot longer until those ALL DAY WEATHER SPECIAL FORECASTS!! You know the ones that last for 16 hours straight and are called “BLIZZARD of ’07”!! That cracks me up. I cant be the only one…..or I guess I could.

  2. Derek Hodges says:

    As for the rather wimpy patch of clouds just offshore…thats not the front. It looks to me like its a faded band of clouds, although still there, just further back. It should roll in here by the mid morning hours or earlier. Behind that it looks like cold showers will be possible.

  3. Andrew says:

    I am thinking snow levels here most likely won’t drop below 3500, but i still have not made up my mind yet, it all depends on how heavy it gets.
    Made it to a high of 59 today, currently 51 with a dewpoint of 31.3

  4. Tyler says:

    Justin, you are right, it was 2004/2005. If I remember correctly, the mountains had a good bit of snow in late October/early November so everyone thought it was gonna be a banner year. The perception of an early winter means a long/hard winter is completely false (on most accounts).
    Anyway, looking at Fairbanks, highs near 15 above and lows around 5 above for the weekend…pretty darn chilly.

  5. Derek Hodges says:

    It isn’t going to hit 70 this week, thats what I think. I don’t have anything wrong with a couple sunny days but for the most part I want some solid rain. My forecast however said that although November would see rain, it would also see a large amount of ridginess. It appears that may happen. The systems are being torn apart and that should continue for a while. Just watch when things change sometime mid winter.

  6. Droppin(Rob) says:

    Nice discussion everyone. Well I just looked at the latest satellite imagery and all I can say is what a pathetic weak looking front moving in tonight. It’s being stretched and ripped apart to the point to where I’m wondering if we are going to even get any legitimate rain during the morning hours. Then it’s 5-6 days of dry, then another weak pathetic system moves through. Is this going to be the reoccuring theme for the fall/winter? If so can you say “Water restrictions”? Well you better because our snowpack will be so minimal and we will all be paying dearly for it, not to mention the flow on our area rivers, and how it will affect water conservation, and hydroelectric power. But hey again it’s only mid-late October Lol.

  7. Justin says:

    It probably hasn’t been negative for a few weeks now, its been near the 0 mark this month and I’d say its definitely positive now.

  8. Mat says:

    I could swear that the PDO was negative up to a few days ago. Can it switch over just like that? And what are your predictions on the strength of our el nino now this year Derek? For everyone else, this could be a year we get four feet of snow, you all never know, it COULD happen.

  9. Justin says:

    I think you’re being a bit harsh, but whatever. Last winter was full of forecasting busts for this area, so if that’s what your basing this off of then I think you should give them a little more credit. They have some good heads working over there, our weather just sucks…. (the suckieness factor is 80% weather, 20% NWS)

  10. Justin says:

    Well as far as snow tests go Derek, something tells me there won’t be too many ‘credit tests’ this winter, so….
    BTW, have you lowered your winter expectations yet? The more I look at things the more I’m counting on a nice 2002-03 repeat, but without all the cold in the East.

  11. Derek Hodges says:

    No matter what guidelines they have, it doesn’t make me trust them more. I will say, I am sorry for the forecasters, but still that doesn’t make me want to listen to them anymore than I otherwise would.

  12. Derek Hodges says:

    When due..sure..I’m still waiting for that to happen…lol Just my opinion, everyone is of course entitled to their own.

  13. Justin says:

    They actually have many good, talented forecasters who know what they are doing. Keep in mind that there is always a strict criteria for them to follow with their forecasting wording, i.e. just because your backyard sees snow at 200ft doesn’t mean they can issue a winter storm warning for the entire Portland Metro Area when 90% of the rest of the area won’t see snowfall, which is why they use certain snow levels like 500ft in those situations.
    The NWS can be overzealous in situations and conservative in others, bu I always try to give them the benefit of the doubt, seeingas they know much more than I do quite frankly and I don’t think its reasonable to shoot everything they do down.
    But again, Mark does a better job IMO for the Portland area, but then he doesn’t have government guidelines he has to follow for his forecasts like the NWS does. Read Portland’s AFD’s and don’t always simply look at the forecast, I think you’d give them a bit more credit if you did.
    But you guys are entitled to your opinons. I’m not a huge fan of Portland’s NWS myself, but I always try to give them credit when credit is due.

  14. -100F says:

    I must agree with Derek on this. I hate how the NWS plays conservative until the last second. The also made tons of stupid errors last winter.

  15. Justin says:

    Yeah, I see what you might have meant, which is why I said that the CPC is actually not the same thing at all as the NWS. No harm no foul or anything, just that I definitely do respect the CPC in most instances, they do a very good job more often than not.
    The NWS varies from office-office as I said, some CWA’s suck while some NWS offices are very good. NWS PDX is a mixed bag, its a tough area to forecast for so I’ll give them that, but in general they’re not too bad. Mark Nelsen does a much better job though than the NWS does for Portland.

  16. Derek Hodges says:

    No disrespect Justin, but the NWS is a bunch of idiots. It doesn’t take much to figure out that 90% of our winters these days are above average as a whole. If I were forecasting anywhere other than the area I am in I would say above average for this winter too, I think the east winds may counter that in the portland area, but thats it. After numerous HORRID mistakes in forecasting last winter I have no respect for them. They called for winter storm warnings that barely turned straight snow, they put out at least 4-5 high wind warnings, none of them officially verifying, no 58mph winds if I remember right…etc. They often times forecast things that lack reasoning and common sense. People can say whatever they want but IMO they are basically a bunch of idiots payed to be conservative to the last minute and even then they miss the forecast anyway. They may be calling for el nino now but that was only to cover their hurricane forecast mishap, before that they were very skeptical about it. I could tear them down all day, but what I have said suffices my point.

  17. jacob BPA says:

    Its safe to say they are not 100% for long Range maybe 50/50
    i.e. noaa prediction for the hurricane season LOL
    even our guys get it wrong

  18. -100F says:

    wow the GFS is still on drugs? Im just gonna ignore this trash for a while. I could probably make a better 10 day forcast than the GFS just by looking at the sky right now.

  19. Jesse says:

    There is a website that records the accuracy of short-range and long-range weather forecasts for a given area, expressed by percentage. NWS was at the lowest percentage across the board for at least the Portland/Vancouver area. That’s what I was basing my rant on.

  20. Justin says:

    Sorry Jesse but I’m really going to have to disagree there, and I don’t think you’re qualified to make that statement seeing as NOAA is made up of some of most talented and seasoned forecasting professionals and weather officials out there. I don’t always agree with their conclusions but NOAA/CPC always do a comendable job with their forecats and they are the official word of weather, whether you like it or not so they always have their reasoning and support. And I agree with their solution looking at the latest SSTA maps, certainly looks like the ENSO regions are still warming to Moderate Nino strength, and it looks like the PDO is probably back to positive already. If the NAO goes positive as I’m thinknig then it should be a blowtorch winter across most of the country.
    And NOAA always forecasts warm in the long range, and they’re just about always right. Only time they haven’t been right in recent years was 2002-03, when they said the NE would be warm. The signs for this winter coupled in with the trend over the last 10 years tells me warm is the way to go.
    As for the NWS, they are split into local sectors so it varies from office-office, the CPC is a different organization entirely though it is a branch of the government forecasting center aka the NWS.

  21. Jesse says:

    Lol, if I get a career in meteorology I hope some of my words on this blog don’t ever come back to bite me… 🙂

  22. Jesse says:

    Jacob, I trust a relatively local company like BPA’s forecast far more than the NWS.

  23. jacob BPA says:

    if our guys are wrong they may need to apply at some local tv stations

  24. Jesse says:

    I’m sorry but the NOAA coupled with the NWS is by far the worst forecasting organization in this country, makes accuweather look like Mark Nelsen. NWS is, for the most part, a joke. This is just my opinion but its a bunch of overpayed underskilled government beareaucrats who throw darts at a map for their winter outlook and this year they had more red darts than blue ones hence the call for a warmer than normal winter. There I said it.

  25. Justin says:

    I agree with them on warm, with a +PDO and a Moderate El Nino its close to impossible to have a cold NW winter, near average is the best we can do.

  26. jacob BPA says:

    Its Funny we are totally opposite From What Noaa is forecasting
    We near Normal For Entire winter
    Basically A near noraml Winter

  27. Justin says:

    Oops, forgot to post the lovely link

  28. Justin says:

    And in other news NOAA buped our chances up for having a warm winter from >33% to >40%, looking pretty good for warmth.

  29. Droppin(Rob) says:

    Oh trust me Lol I’m not holding any significance to the model, just noting what it’s showing.

  30. Justin says:

    My opinion Rob is that its the 10th day, so don’t worry about it. I wouldn’t pay any attention to these models right now past 5 days, they’re adjusting to the season change and being set for winter, they’re going to show a lot of stuff that’s completely out of left field in the coming weeks, as we’ve seen thus far, so don’t even worry about one model run showing something. I’m with luvrydog on this.

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