Quiet Evening

Pretty calm conditions tonight on our side of the mountains.  Radar at 8:30pm shows now showers left over, although plenty of clouds behind today’s cold front.  Not exactly a strong front since the temperature didn’t even drop behind it.  A vort max is moving south across Eastern Washington with a few lightning strikes right now east of Spokane and just northeast of the Tri-Cities.  Tremendous pressure gradient across the eastside too.  I see ELN (Ellensburg) just gusted over 50 mph…strong even for them.
Slow clearing tomorrow, then it’s off to strong offshore flow Saturday, no change in that since last night.

The last 10 days have been very rough with respect to model reliability.  Looks like ridge won’t last long as a trough comes swinging through here Tuesday and Wednesday.  Still seems a bit hard to believe, considering ridging was looking more likely 24 hours ago.  But I’ll put rain back in the forecast, plus a cool trough in the last week of October will be pretty chilly.  Highs in the low-mid 50’s are likely.

I hope to see a few of you at the meeting tomorrow.  It’s always a chaotic meeting because you want to talk to lots of different folks that you only see once or twice a year, but you only have a short time to chat before and after the meeting…Mark

9:45pm note:  00z models are even worse!  Either a ridge or cold trough next week…flip a coin!

115 Responses to Quiet Evening

  1. Derek Hodges says:

    And to Answer Ashley, NO! I forecast what I forecast because its what I think based on realistic things! I am tired of people telling me I am an insane snow freak! I like the analogs for this year pointed toward some snow and some cold temps. You can say whatever you want for what you forecast, or say I disagree, but people shouldn’t attack those with different views.

  2. Ryan says:

    Also a sidenote… The latest MRF models are still showing to pretty good troughs rolling through with a very brief ridge period between the the two systems.

  3. Ryan says:

    I do agree with Ashley a bit. We all get over worked a little bit in regard to winter weather and for those of us that forcast it does skew their forcast. Of course our forcasting is more for fun (although some folks on this board are looking to make a serious career out of this one day). I’m not banging on anyone btw but we all seem to trend cooler and whiter while hoping it does as such.
    As far as the GFS I typically see updated runs within 1 hour of 12am, 6am, 12pm, 6pm. So I just check right those times. Speaking of GFS the latest run (18z) is all over the charts later in the week. But we can be sure of a quick warm up with the ridge through Monday and then a quick cool down with a trough through Tuesday-Thursday and then, who knows?
    I do have another question in regard to the GFS run. Each day has rows 00Z through 21Z. One would think logically the final row (21Z) would be roughly 12am (or close to it) yet typically that last entry is the warmest entry. So are the rows laid out chronolgically starting at 00Z or 12am going to 21Z or what I assume is 9pm? If this is the case the GFS is predicting the max temp at 9pm. Orrrr does each row simply represent what the data was during the previous GFS runs?

  4. Justin says:

    Looks like the PNA may be tanking for the start of November, ensembles seem to agree at this point. That may or may not be good news, if it tanks and bottoms out then it’ll rise again pretty quickly, and with a rising PDO thhat may already be positive then the PNA could become pretty positive as well.
    Could also just be a good sign that the -PNA is sustaining itself a bit, November will obviously be a really crucial month in determining what the winter setup will be like. A -PNA November would easily break this year away from the years you all hate so much, 2002 and 1991.

  5. Derek Hodges says:

    I’m still wondering about the snow level…I believe at this point if Andrew were to see a very heavy shower he could see a mix.

  6. Derek Hodges says:

    Sean is correct, except that its at 5PM right now. Also Mark gets them at the same time we do if its internet based, if its his own models he sees them quicker. GFS is still forecasting negative 850mb temps, which could result in highs in the upper 40’s possibly. 🙂

  7. luvrydog says:

    Thanks Sean. Glad to see at least one blogger on here getting some possibility of snow/mix! Give me your takes for Portland on the GFS in the next 7 days. As Derek mentioned earlier, lol, Pete Parsons said anytime the GFS says trough, it means either ridge or split, everyone there pretty much agreed!

  8. Sean (Indiana) says:

    00z=GMT (of which Portland is 8 hours behind (GMT -8), so 00z is 4pm Portland Time
    12z would be 4am Portland Time
    The model usually comes out a few hours after that. I would expect the PRO METS would have access to it, before the public would. But, maybe Mark or Drew would be able to answer that question for us.
    Pretty chilly over the last few days, looking for a bit of WAA (Warm Air Advection) during the day. After the warm front passes in which we should hit the mid 60s tomorrow. Then after the passage of the cold front the CAA (Cold Air Advection) will kick in. Back on Wednesday when the last cold front passed through my temp went from 62 at midnight to 49 at 2am.
    Might see some rain/snow mix late on Sunday or during the day on Monday. Temps over the last few weeks have been running between 10-15 degree below average. During the next few weeks our average temps go from the mid 60s to the mid 50s by the first week of Nov.

  9. luvrydog says:

    Derek, so let me get this straight…oh, I can’t…lol.
    00z=12AM (midnight) PST?
    12z=12PM (noon)
    and once that model is produced, we don’t see it for a couple hours…am I on the right track? it doesn’t sound right to me after Mark’s post…at 9:45 he just then said the 00z runs looked a little worse on his minipost at the end…Maybe I’ll just email him, lol.

  10. luvrydog says:

    Hey, Ashley, I don’t recognize you, have you posted on here before? Excuse me for not noticing if you have. What you should do is let everyone on here enjoy eachother’s forecasts. We ALL know that if we want more snow to move, but if we got that much snow we wouldn’t be as excited about the possibility. Everyone on here is knowledgable to know what you just stated in the previous post, so instead of knocking what we say, project and forecast, we invite you to join the forecasting and give us your humble forecasts! I’ve been on here a year and have learned a LOT from these bloggers, I guarantee you could as well!

  11. ashley says:

    all you who are saying more snow more cold this winter,
    I really don’t mean to be mean but you guys like myself are so obsessed with cold and snow that you are letting that cloud your forecast this winter. Go move to minessota or wyoming if you want cold and snow. they would laugh at us for geeting so excited about a 20 inch snow winter and temps in the teens for a week.
    please don’t hate me!!

  12. alex says:

    weatherchannel is saying 49 for my high tues./wed. but i don’t really think it can be that cool for oct.25/26 it might just happen 50/50% chance

  13. Andrew says:

    That wind storm last night caused some minor damage around the campus/town. A bunch of chain fences were down and a ton of branches. I am starting to think i actually won’t get all that cold next week. I think the heating from the sun is still too intense this time of year for anything interesting to happen, even a mix. But, who knows, will have to see what happens. I still think maybe the hills down to like 3000-3500 feet might see something, be it a mix or some light snow.

  14. luvrydog says:

    I would have to disagree with the “arctic air” term at this point. I don’t even necessarily agree with a modified arctic air mass at this point. i don’t think the Uconn territory has had enough time to cool to those standards yet. I would say in about 2-3 weeks we could talk arctic air. I’m not discounting what you see, just disagree. i do see the same and it looks as if the air will have some type of over water trajectory and be coming from more of a NNW direction where our arctic fronts are tyically coming from directly N or a NNEasterly direction. In my opinion, I consider a modified arctic air mass to have high temps of 35-about 42, and an arctic airmass to keep us below freezing for at least 48 hours straight. We could hope this but I don’t see it being the right set up yet.

  15. Mat says:

    I still think its just too early Ben. It would modify too much with our temps near 60-70 to give us any wintry precip. We’re still at least 2 weeks away from any serious threat, even down to a 1000 feet.

  16. Mat says:

    So there’s gonna be some strong east winds tomorrow. I’m still waiting for the cold east winds. Nice meeting today btw. Didn’t meet any of u, but I had to hurry back to work. Ya, Mark is bigger than I thought, was thinking maybe 5’7″. Anyways, can anyone tell me if I’m wrong about this, that we’re more likely to get ice than snow in el nino years? Not that we’re likely to get anything, but more of a chance.

  17. Ben says:

    If you look at the MRF, there is a large mass of cold air “arctic” that slides and covers our region in the 5 and 10 day loops. I have not seen this since our last snow event. What do you think guys? Is it promising. Looking at both the GFS and MRF togther seems like we could get our first taste of winter on tuesday/wednesday…at least for people who live near a 1000 foot elevation.

  18. Jesse says:

    Mark is forecasting that it will cool down big time next week. Temps will peak Sunday at 67, then after Monday no highs above 60 the rest of the 7-day, with lows in the mid-30s for PDX Thursday and Friday morning! Mark is forecasting a low of 41 at PDX tonight, so I think many of us tonight away from the city will see a frost or even a light freeze. Breezy north winds are bringing drier air in right now. I hope the 7-day sticks, even though GFS is weakening the trough. ECMWF is still holding strong though.

  19. Derek Hodges says:

    Well GFS has slowly been weakening the trough but I still believe it will occur.

  20. -100F says:

    lol, wow.
    Yeah, anyway the MRF looks promising, lets see what happens.

  21. Ryan says:

    -100F, you where reading my mind! We blogged about it at the same time.

  22. Ryan says:

    Wow, I like the latest MRF run. It gives us ridging through Sunday and then two artic troughs. The first develops in northern BC and strolls down the cost line. The second is a large pool of artic air in the gulf and it pushses south starting Monday/Tuesday.
    The MRF likes developing ridges but modifying them or making them dissappear as we approach the time frame it is suppose to roll in.
    Pete Parsons had a good note about the GFS model: If you see a large trough in the long range it will end up a ridge or split-flow.

  23. -100F says:

    http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_850_loop.html
    The MRF loop looks good, very consistent since last few runs.

  24. Jesse says:

    Derek, your latest thoughts on next Tuesday/Wednesday’s trough? Mark said we may stay in the low 50s for highs. Even the weather channel is giving us highs of 50 and 51 for Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. That will be nice.

  25. Justin says:

    Generally we get our biggest icestorms after long, dry cool spells like last December, the untapped cold air pool has been allowed to fully sink to the valley floor so it takes longer for the inversion to break once the winds at 850mb switch to onshore.
    An absolutely classic example is that of January 11, 1979, probably one of our biggest and baddest icestorms ever, after one of our biggest and baddest arctic outbreaks ever.
    Anywho, its back to work for me.

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