Quiet Evening

October 19, 2006

Pretty calm conditions tonight on our side of the mountains.  Radar at 8:30pm shows now showers left over, although plenty of clouds behind today’s cold front.  Not exactly a strong front since the temperature didn’t even drop behind it.  A vort max is moving south across Eastern Washington with a few lightning strikes right now east of Spokane and just northeast of the Tri-Cities.  Tremendous pressure gradient across the eastside too.  I see ELN (Ellensburg) just gusted over 50 mph…strong even for them.
Slow clearing tomorrow, then it’s off to strong offshore flow Saturday, no change in that since last night.

The last 10 days have been very rough with respect to model reliability.  Looks like ridge won’t last long as a trough comes swinging through here Tuesday and Wednesday.  Still seems a bit hard to believe, considering ridging was looking more likely 24 hours ago.  But I’ll put rain back in the forecast, plus a cool trough in the last week of October will be pretty chilly.  Highs in the low-mid 50’s are likely.

I hope to see a few of you at the meeting tomorrow.  It’s always a chaotic meeting because you want to talk to lots of different folks that you only see once or twice a year, but you only have a short time to chat before and after the meeting…Mark

9:45pm note:  00z models are even worse!  Either a ridge or cold trough next week…flip a coin!