Early Rain

Junk2_1The first person to call me (and whine) was Shauna Parsons this morning, it went something like this:  "Mark, I’m sitting here IN THE RAIN at the Pumpkin Patch…I THOUGHT it was going to be a dry day with morning fog?".  What she really meant was: "You fool!  Can’t you ever get it right?  You dishonor our First, Live, Local newscast with your forecast for today."

But now of course it’s old news that this evening’s rain showed up about 12 hours early.  It was light…only about .05" at PDX, but enough to keep the high temperature about 6 degrees below where I expected it to be.

Easier forecast for later tonight and tomorrow as a healthy cold front slides over the top of the building upper-level ridge and into the Northwest.  Heaviest rain should be around midday (like Sunday’s system).  It might even dry quite a bit towards sunrise.

Then it’s on to ridging…surface high builds to our north Friday, gradually clearing us out.  Then a switch to strong offshore flow Saturday & Sunday.  This will be the first "winterlike" east wind event in the Gorge.  MM5-UW clearly shows a closed surface high developing Saturday afternoon and Sunday in the Columbia Basin.  About 8 millibars gradient from DLS-PDX should give us gusts to 50 mph in the Gorge and 35 mph in the metro area.  It also means a beautiful weekend.  I have NO idea why another station in town is calling for a rainy day Sunday.

Long range maps are still all over the place, but there seems to be a tendency for either ridging or split-flow near the West Coast.  With that uncertainty, I’ve left rain or significant clouds out of the forecast early next week.  Of course last week at this time I thought all of THIS week would be sunny too.

Don’t forget the Winter Weather Meeting coming up Friday at OMSI (10am-Noon and open to the public).  It’s free and you’ll get to meet lots of other weather friends (geeks).  But please, no weather gang fights alright?

61 Responses to Early Rain

  1. luvrydog says:

    Derek…I must be lookin at something wrong, can you give me your links for the Euro…I’ve gotta be seeing something wrong, the page I’m looking at, refreshed and all is not showing a deep trough over us after 120 hours, basically ridging, help me out here if you could, thanks bud.

  2. Derek Hodges says:

    ECMWF is on board with the GFS already.

  3. Derek Hodges says:

    I decided I was going to wait until 12z to “call it” if it looks just as good or better. Andrews elevation is like 2000ft I think.

  4. luvrydog says:

    Wierd night out guys…and gals! Temp is holding in the high fifties and it’s pretty humid out there…actually the temp at my place in beaverton has gone up 2 degrees in the past half hour. So looking at the GFS models, definetely looks promising. But no way am I getting on board until all we see the Euro and the CAN jump on board, I don’t see that yet. GFS could go ridging at 00z. I’m gonna play conservative…for now. I wonder if any of the meterologists will go over short term tomorrow and if they do, will the models show more troughing tomorrow??? We’ll see.

  5. Ben says:

    what is andrews elevation?

  6. Ben says:

    what is andrews elevation?

  7. Derek Hodges says:

    I hope he makes a new one soon. 🙂 Snow obviously not a possibility with the possible upcoming trough but what it will make if it occures is heavy hail showers and snow to possibly Andrews elevation.

  8. Ben says:

    I hope Mark can give us a “snow probability” prediction for the next two weeks in tonights post.

  9. Sarah N. says:

    Mark’s new 7-day confirms the cool weather next week…temps in the mid to upper 50s starting Tuesday. Let’s hope that it holds.

  10. Derek Hodges says:

    IF ITS TRUE YOU WILL! But thats the big question. For now I am going with rain and troughiness but if the same thing is there tomorrow afternoon I will go full on with it. Just to give it a little more time for consistency, I may even go for it tonight if 00z is even crazier.

  11. -100F says:

    Looks like we got a chance at some cooler temps. Maybe Andrew will get a few flakes?

  12. Andrew says:

    well, maybe i am crazy, but i am starting to think from this latest model run that i may be looking at snow.

  13. Derek Hodges says:

    And don’t worry, I haven’t been waiting 20 min for somebody to post I just came back in the same minute as you by chance.

  14. Derek Hodges says:

    thats pretty weak Andrew…lol

  15. Andrew says:

    I feel like i am going to blow away up here lol. The wind is now gusting to 45mph.

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