Ridgey Weather

October 16, 2006

Junk2Showers dying down late this afternoon…and not nearly as much convection today as I expected.  BUT, that was a nice little squall at 2-3am wasn’t it?  It woke me up as hail was pounding against the northwest facing windows.  Those rain totals to the left are ending at 5pm Monday.

The BIG picture is one of upper-level ridging redeveloping through the next 7-10 days just west of the North American coastline.  Each model run is slightly different of course and the devil is always in the details.

I finally broke down (sobbing) and added rain to Thursday’s forecast since it appears one last weather system moves over the top of the ridge and plummets down into the Rockies, giving us rain as it passes over.  I knew this was a threat while forecasting the last 2 days but I was in denial.  After that it’s back to ridging for the weekend with nice offshore flow.  Of course about 5 days ago it looked like the next 2-3 days would see nice offshore flow and sun too, so hopefully models will settle down a bit and do a better job over the next week.

October is the foggiest month at PDX (on average), so moist ground & high dewpoints the next couple of days combined with any clearing at night should lead to some fog each morning/midday.  We aren’t quite up to the time of year where the fog can get stuck in the valleys all day.  That doesn’t happen until around mid-November…Mark