Saturday Night Special

October 14, 2006

I’m working this weekend for Drew, so I’ll blog…but only briefly.  I have to reserve my energy for another 6 days of weathercasting.

Nice cold front approaching the coastline tonight.  Looking at the satellite picture it doesn’t look THAT impressive, but both NAM & GFS are very wet for tomorrow.  Looks to me like a 4 hour shot of pretty steady rain (maybe .50") between 9am-1pm.  Showers for Monday, and with low lifted index and some CAPE, I threw a thunderstorm into the forecast too.  That’s by no means a certainty, but it should be a bit unstable.
Ridging develops Tuesday and turns our windflow back to offshore, so the sun will return along with dryness too.
If you’ve been looking at long-range maps, you’ll notice a HUGE amount of disagreement today on the forecast beyond Thursday.  But as of the 00z GFS run, the ECMWF is the only model still showing another system dropping by to our north/east next Friday.  GFS & Canadian now have solid ridging overhead, so I kept the forecast dry through next weekend.  The GFS in fact shows no organized fronts or disturbances for the next 12 days after Monday’s showers end.  Hard to believe…we’ll see…Mark