A Bit Warmer

October 10, 2006

A bit of a warm up today.  Of course it was a few degrees short of what I’d like to have seen.  We warmed 3-4 degrees from yesterday, I anticipated a good 6-7 degrees.  Models show another 5-7 degrees warming for tomorrow, so I assume we’ll get at least 3-4.  Therefore today’s high of 75 should at least reach 78 tomorrow at PDX.  A few of you will probably hit 80 as well.

Strong ridge is sitting offshore and easterly surface flow is quite a bit lighter today.  East wind never made it out of the Gorge and was never very strong even in the Gorge.  Models don’t show pressure gradient changing much (if any) the next 2 days so the only change to our weather will be the gradually warming airmass.    Eastside warms up a few degrees tomorrow and again Thursday, so our airmass source will be warmer too.  Will we hit 80 at PDX?  Tough call, but very possible.

Last night was our coldest so far this season.  29 at Battleground, 30 at Hillsboro, 32 at Troutdale.  First frost for those spots, but only 40 at PDX.  Portland’s average first frost isn’t until early November so that’s not a surprise.

Interesting long range model info today.  Canadian pops ridging back up over us next week after Sunday’s cold front.  12z GFS was showing a dry week next week too, but now the 18z GFS and 12z ECMWF show a retrogression and cooler troughing…hmm.  Based on past history (models forecasting retrogression in the cool season, but ridge ends up staying put on later runs) I’ll plan on dry after Monday morning, but change to cooler/wetter on tomorrow’s forecast if troughing is still in the cards.

So enjoy 3-4 days more sunshine….Mark