Heading Into October

Winterwxmeet2006 Here we go this weekend with a big cooldown.  I’m pretty confident it’ll feel like October by the time we get to Monday morning.

High pressure beginning to weaken now after sitting over us for a week.  A weak cold front will drag through the region during the day Sunday.  No model has rain with this system and the onshore flow doesn’t look too strong either, so sunbreaks are likely Sunday afternoon.  Some disagreement on the forecast Tuesday-Thursday.  I’m assuming the approaching trough of low pressure will move well south and avoid us, giving no chance for rain.  If I’m wrong showers will show up Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday.  The 80’s are definitely gone for now too.

As for the chart above? I’m still working on graphics for the winter weather meeting.  This one shows the peak wind gust each winter at PDX.  Interesting that southerly wind has been quite weak the last few winters.  I still think we are way overdue for a good 60+ mph southerly blow this winter, although I’ve been saying that for about 3 years and it still hasn’t happenedMark

210 Responses to Heading Into October

  1. Andrew says:

    Thanks for the link Justin, i can’t wait until winter weather hits.

  2. Justin says:

    Hey Andrew, to get an idea of a typical winter’s month in Ellensburg
    http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KELN/2000/12/2/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
    You’ll be seeing a ‘true winter’ this year, not the modified arctic crap we get here in the Portland Area. Often times Ellensburg’s average monthly temp can approach some of the entire winter’s minimum temps at PDX.
    Anywho, I agree there -100, a few of the more recent runs do support some interesting weather, but then this may just be a further sign of the inconsistency thus far and they could very well switch back.
    Interestingly enough, the 18z GFS looks much more 1994/1968/1951ish for October, definitely hope it continues to work out. By October 12 I could have a much better idea of where things are heading looking at some of the temps for October.

  3. Andrew says:

    I am starting to like these models runs. Although far out, it is starting to support highs in the low to mid 50’s with lows in the upper 20’s/lower 30’s for here next weekend. However, i’ll be back in Portland that weekend so i’ll miss the cold 😦 .

  4. Derek Hodges says:

    whoops. I didn’t post twice did I? There are some showers to our west but you will have to use the KGW radar, PDX radar suffered a hardware failure unfortunately.

  5. Derek Hodges says:

    Over 200 comments on a weekend with really nothing. Seriously if the long range models tracked a storm coming in with a bunch of snow/ice/wind we would rack up probably a 1000+ daily as we were approaching the storm, when Mark/Drew would not open a new entry as quickly.

  6. Derek Hodges says:

    Over 200 comments on a weekend with really nothing. Seriously if the long range models tracked a storm coming in with a bunch of snow/ice/wind we would rack up probably a 1000+ daily as we were approaching the storm, when Mark/Drew would not open a new entry as quickly.

  7. Derek Hodges says:

    Perhaps it will Snow.. Anybody look at the windflow on the GFS. At 274 hours its at 115kts right over us lol

  8. Snow says:

    I wish it snows here again like it did 2003-2004 year

  9. -100F says:

    Like Justin said, its too far out. But if that happens we could get some pretty impressive weather.
    You can start to see the cold air form that trough approach us towards the end of this MRF loop
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
    850mb temps dropping into the negatives.

  10. Andrew says:

    Down into the 50’s here now with wind gusting at about 26mph.

  11. Justin says:

    Wow, I know its far out and pointless but 18z GFS is trending incredibly wet for the week after this, in the 8-10 day period. Meteogram shows 4.6” rain totals. Trough begins to show, as Jesse said, around the 11th, so still a long ways out but there seems to be more model agreement here now with a more active jetstream in the 8-10 day, hopefully the models stick to this trend.

  12. Justin says:

    Oh yes, you’re right. I forgot Mark updated the blog that weekend in February, on a Sunday then again on Monday. 943 posts for that little dusting of snow? LOL, can’t imagine what a 12 incher would do.

  13. Justin says:

    Hey Shawn, welcome to the blog. About any chance for stormiesness here in the upcoming two weeks, looks like trough will be the rule for most of the West so a few storm systems should make there way up the coast. Still don’t see any hints of our first real winter storm though, but we should have a few nice and wet days over the next week, Friday in particular.
    Also, nice to see you guys again B Rein and alex, been awhile since I’ve seen your names on here. I think 2000+ would be very possible in a major winter storm, but then Mark or Drew would update the blog more foten which may lead to shorter posting periods.

  14. Derek Hodges says:

    Are you sure Justin? That one is on the 19th and he has another one on the 20th about Evaporative Cooling or something. Anyway thanks for the links, those are helpful.

  15. Justin says:

    Actually the 943 in February was over a weekend, so Mark didn’t update the blog and it ran for about 3 days.
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
    There’s a link showing the full 16 day operational GFS, haven’t checked the 18z run yet but 12z Euro looks a little less ridgy out in the Pacific over the 5-7 day, with the jetstream right on top of us. Seems to want to develop the southern jet again after about 6 days, but its had a bit of a southern bias lately.

  16. Jesse says:

    Here you go Derek, hopefully this will work:
    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/wxchart.php
    This trough even has the 528dm line over central British Columbia, hoping to see some run to run consistency for this one. I’m heading to work now, I’ll be back on to check out Marks new blog after midnight.

  17. Derek Hodges says:

    Yep back in February we racked up 943 posts in one day.

  18. Derek Hodges says:

    Jesse can I have a link for this. The GFS runs I look at either only go the 11th, or the sampled points is stuck on the 12z still. An earlier look at things would be nice. As for the comments. Its quite likely we will break 1000. Back in march or February we ended up with 943 one day so if we get something really big we probably will break 1000, maybe more.

  19. B Rein says:

    makes me wonder… i follow this blog often, just glance over it daily but still follow. my question, i remember days in winter when 300 comments would be amazing.. now we almost have that daily what will it now me like in the winter? 1000?

  20. Jesse says:

    The 18Z GFS keeps the ridge that starts building next week flatter than before, and begins totally breaking it down as early as next Wednesday the 11th. Then it brings a giant arctic trough in by Thurday the 12th as the ridge amplifies and retrogrades offshore. Has 500mb heights down near 534dm, the first time I’ve seen that this season. I know its way out but just kind of fun to look at, and who knows…

  21. -100F says:

    Last year during the march snow fall the GFS actually started calling that event in the 192-384 hr forcast. It was very consistant.Now I really hate how it predicts a rainy day and than a few hours later it shows ridging.

  22. Derek Hodges says:

    Sunday morning we could drop into the 30’s for most of the metor area, probably 42 or something at the airport. Tuesday-Wednesday looks somewhat wet, then Friday night or Saturday as well with no big ridging in sight. I honestly don’t know why a lot of people, (not specifically here), are fretting about a little ridging, winter is still months away.

  23. Andrew says:

    Just got done looking at the models, i think i have a chance of hitting the upper 20’s next sunday night. It looks like temps for my area should be 28-33 degrees, somewhere in that range.

  24. Jesse says:

    Portland only was down to 51 last night, 46 for Vancouver.

  25. Jesse says:

    If it weren’t for those pesky high clouds last night right over the Portland/Vancouver area we could have seen lows in the thirties last night. Where it cleared out lows were very chilly all around Western Oregon and Washington.
    Bellingham: 37
    Olympia: 36
    Astoria: 39
    Scappoose: 40
    Corvallis: 39
    Eugene: 37

  26. Ryan says:

    Considering how much everyone was expecting it to stay dry the GFS got fairly damp. As much as .83″ by Tuesday of next week with what looks like showers Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Morning and again Friday evening.
    It’s look like Saturday & Sunday could be our first night down into the 30’s for the metro.

  27. Andrew says:

    Hey Shawn, nice to see ya posting. i love it when new names start showing up on the blog, makes it more interesting to read.

  28. alex u. says:

    man the sunny skies just won’t desapper i want it to be cold so we can fianlly have some snow

  29. alex ursatiy says:

    hey haven’t been on the blog to much at all,that’s because theirs not a lot to talk about in the summer i mostly go on here fall and winter,i have a question were do you live andrew?

  30. Shawn says:

    I am new to this blog. I have been reading it for awhile and I like the weather chatter that goes on here. I enjoy talking about and studying the weather and know about some aspects of it but I want to learn more.

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